As a follow-up to creative's post in the other topic...

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Alright, it's time to throw everything out of the window...

No, seriously.

I've never been a fan of the theory you've been using for the X-stats. Unfortunately for me it works. And there's nothing I hate more than I theory I don't quite agree with being proved right empirically because it usually means the stuff in my head is rubbish. And it happens a lot!

Now with that said, we'll have to figure something because the theory stops making sense in a 4-way-poll

I'll use your example from CS&D:
Cloud vs Mega Man vs Ryu vs Terra with their respective strengths (47.6%,35.5%,27.5%,17%)
We'll scale this to 1.000/0.746/.578/.357

Using our classical x-stats theory we get the expected result:
Cloud : 54.36% = 28.96% + (.254/1.000)
Mega Man : 28.96% = 14.05% + (.168/.746)*.578 + (.168/.746)*.168/2
Ryu : 14.05% =
2.64% +
(.357/1.000)*(.357/.746)*([.578-.357]/.578) +
(.221/1.000)*(.221/.746)*(.221/.578)/3 +
(.221/1.000)*(.357/.746)*(.221/.578)/2 +
(.221/1.000)*(.221/.746)*(.357/.578)/2
Terra : 2.64% = (.357/1.000)*(.357/.746)*(.357/.578)/4

Hey, never said it was going to be pretty...and yes it adds up close enough...but 30,000 runs isn't enough to get something really close!

But I think we can all agree that those results don't make much sense...

I have an idea but it'll have to wait a few hours, I'm going outside for a change!
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)