Message Detail
Board: ARCHIVE - SpC2k5 to SC2k6
Topic: SC2k7 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic
From: King Morgoth Posted: 8/27/2007 9:09:31 PM
Why so? It seems a pretty good model of the reality of voter behavior actually.

Gut feeling really. I never really "felt" it if you will. And it works so I had no choice but to agree. And now I finally think I figured out where I've been trying to go all those years...

Hmm...I think you're on to something here! I'll have to look closer at this.

Those are simply the theoretical values you're trying to get through Excel. You'd probably need millions to get something really close though...

Actually 30,000 runs will get it pretty close; seems to have a deviation of half a point or so. If I was doing formula verification/validation I'd use more.

Sorry 'bout that, I'm used to dealing with teachers with whom half a point or so is never close

How so? I'd say that Terra's low percentage is highly counter-intuitive, but it does make sense.
I don't think Cloud can take almost 55% in a poll like this. Or that Ryu would dive all the way under 15%. It just feels awkward
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

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