King Morgoth:
Cloud gets P[A¬B¬C] + P[AB¬C]/2 + P[A¬BC]/2 + P[ABC]/3
=1*.2*.4 + 1*.8*.4/2 + 1*.2*.6/2 + 1*.8*.6/3 = 46.00%
Mega Man gets P[¬AB¬C] + P[AB¬C]/2 + P[¬ABC]/2 + P[ABC]/3
=0*.8*.4 + 1*.8*.4/2 + 0*.8*.6 + 1*.8*.6/3 = 32.00%
Ryu gets P[¬A¬BC] + P[¬ABC]/2 + P[A¬BC]/2 + P[ABC]/3
=0*.2*.6 + 0*.8*.6/2 + 1*.2*.6/2 + 1*.8*.6/3 = 22.00%

I understand this now, and it makes a lot of sense. This is good stuff.

What I wonder about is the underlying behavioral assumption about a simple like/not like choice with possible split votes; I think a continuum makes more sense. However I like the way the math works out here. It's easy to follow once you see it, and logical.

I think we'll have an idea about which model is better after a while. It should become clear in terms of the skewness of the vote percentages - if the percentages are "flatter", then that will clearly favor your model. That very well may happen because of fanbase segmentation (i.e. cult loyalty), so your model might be superior in practice.

Another reason to look forward to these contests :) Always more questions to answer!

I tried working out the math according to this logic with the Battle Royale's last two matches.

Match #3:
Character - Actual % - Classical (simulated) % - King Morgoth Conditional %
Link - 42.68% - 34.70% - 28.390%
Cloud - 23.70% - 29.30% - 27.030%
Sephiroth - 16.79% - 25.23% - 25.127%
Snake - 16.83% - 10.77% - 18.830%

My %ages for the conditional approach here don't add up to 100% so I must have done something wrong.

Match #4:
Character - Actual % - Classical (simulated) % - King Morgoth Conditional %
Link - 44.65% - 43.63% - 39.327%
Cloud - 35.71%- 38.14% - 36.196%
Snake - 19.64% - 18.22% - 24.476%

I may have made math errors here too, feel free to correct me.

Obviously nothing conclusive here at all, we need more data. That will be a problem here in matches where we have new character. But I think (hope) eventually the picture clears up.

Anyone care to try and work out King Morgoth's math for the other BR matches? That's going to be a semi-Herculean task...
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