What I wonder about is the underlying behavioral assumption about a simple like/not like choice with possible split votes; I think a continuum makes more sense. However I like the way the math works out here. It's easy to follow once you see it, and logical.

The continuum makes much more sense but we can't model it without going through a lot of trouble... we can see this as a very rough approximation of a continuum, the more detailed one we can actually figure out with the data we have.


I think we'll have an idea about which model is better after a while. It should become clear in terms of the skewness of the vote percentages - if the percentages are "flatter", then that will clearly favor your model. That very well may happen because of fanbase segmentation (i.e. cult loyalty), so your model might be superior in practice.

The model I presented is too flat due to not taking into account any SFF. And any SFF will push the characters more apart. But it becomes a rather complicated thing to throw in....

My %ages for the conditional approach here don't add up to 100% so I must have done something wrong.

Link gets 29.013%, the rest is good. (including the 3-way match)
You forgot to add up [Link ¬Cloud Sephiroth ¬Mario] if you really want to know =P

Anyone care to try and work out King Morgoth's math for the other BR matches? That's going to be a semi-Herculean task...
Link - 20.144%
Cloud - 18.917%
Sephiroth - 17.703%
Mario - 15.169%
Samus - 14.553%
Snake - 13.515%

Link - 23.710%
Cloud - 22.200%
Sephiroth - 20.720%
Mario - 17.670%
Snake - 15.700%

Excel file coming up at some point...

Right now I think King Morgoth's conditional probability approach is correct.

I'm pretty confident about the approach but my numbers are getting killed by SFF...I'm trying to fix that...
There are two things I can't model at all though...
- Kryptonite cases (See Link/Ganon)
- rSFF

*****

what the .... are you three talking about..... ?

Trying to apply the x-stats to 4-way battles!
lol x-stats
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)