.I think the reasoning behind the high predictions is more intuition. I think that almost everyone coming to gamefaqs at least knows Snake. Manny on the other hand is pretty much cult, and not a lot of (especially younger people) have heard of him. And as I never hear something of Anti-MGS voting, I think all the casual votes will go to Snake, even if Manny has a slight pic advantage (imo).
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SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21997510