Assuming that the average prediction in this match was Vincent with 60%, and that Kerrigan will finish with 23.5%, that would mean Kerrigan was overestimated by 16.5%.

In gross terms, that would make her the 4th most overestimated entrant ever (since the first Oracle challenge match, Link vs. Fox in 2K3):

("Difference" is the absolute difference between expected and actual percentage)

Rk) Difference || Character || Oracle Prediction || Actual %
1) 20.22% || Luigi (vs. Squall) || 60.01% || 39.79%
2) 17.08% || Metroid Prime (vs. Half-Life 2) || 73.24% || 56.16%
3) 16.74% || Ganon (vs. Link) || 28.84% || 12.1%
4) 16.50% || Kerrigan || 40% || 23.5%
5) 15.58% || Mario (vs. Shadow) || 70.68% || 55.1%

I think she'll probably actually end up 3rd on this list.

However, in Relative Strength terms—which acknowledge that %ages become harder to get the higher you go—Kerrigan is 4th in a very different looking list:

("Score" here is the percentage that the actual character would be estimated to get on the estimated character; e.g., Tanner was expected to get 14.23% on Snake but got 5.7%, so that's 5.7%/14.23%/2=20%; "real Kerrigan" would be expected to get 23.5%/40%/2=29.4% on "estimated Kerrigan")

Rk) Score || Character || Oracle Prediction || Actual %
1) 20% || Tanner || 14.23% || 5.7%
2) 21% || Ganon (vs. Link) || 28.84% || 12.1%
3) 22% || Adventure (vs. LoZ) || 10.92% || 4.8%
4) 29.4% || Kerrigan || 40% || 23.5%
5) 29.8% || Donkey Kong (vs. LoZ) || 21.71% || 12.96%

So, ignoring poor Ganon (due to the SFF thing), Kerrigan is the 2nd most overestimated character ever, next to the incomparable Tanner.
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