If we're using Samus/Mario as some sort of classic example then this is readily seen by doing some quick math. The correlation between the percentage people picked for Mario in that match against the amount of points people ended up with excluding the points from that match itself: 0.0112. Clearly almost a pure noise process. Now if you correlate the points from that actual match (instead of the prediction percentage) vs. the points from all other matches, it rises to 0.066; extremely low and possibly random but the slight correlation is probably due to risk-aversion being rewarded (since points gained are rules-related, whereas pick percentages are not).

Eh?
---
"I should have been the one to fill your DARKNESS with LIGHT!" - Dante after playing KH2