I ended in 66th. Not bad for entering only 14 matches.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Alright, one position better than last summer. I'll take it.

Turningthe actual contest into something like that would be a lot of fun,especially if you still had to make your brackets out completely beforethe contest started.
^^^^
"Does he exist in the same way as I exist?"
"You do not exist," said O'Brien.

18th in 2003
11th in 2004 (Spring)
21st in 2004 (Summer)

and now 16th. I'm a little dissappointed, but meh. I'll break that Top 10 this summer!

Congrats DC and thanks KM for hosting!
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
Final Sp2K5 Score: 70 points. Yoblazer pwned me harder than Link in a match versus Tanner.

15th...not that great but at least I won the Triforce Division
---
Congratulations to yoblazer for winning the guru contest.
number 30 on the Sp2k5 leaderboard (pjd4 is my universal name)

First and foremost, thanks for keeping this thing running, Morgoth.Moreso this time, seeing how relatively boring the actual matches werethis year. Keep up the great work!

Congratsto Chemist for complete domination. I was hoping to crack theleaderboard this time, but considering how terribly awful the firsthalf of my round 1 predictions were, I'm pleased with how I finished.Still, just soooo many awful changes this year. I practically made that-40 of mine in stupid impulse changes. Ah well.

~begins countdown till summer~
---
~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
http://www.geocities.com/bernardalgain/Lufia2/Lufia2_Wacky/Salient.png

17th place... my Ridley pick really hurt me.
---
Pwned by yoblazer in the Guru Contest!
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546

Good job, DC, and thanks to KM for hosting this again. Always the highlight of the contests for me.

Imanaged to not miss a prediction for the first time, but I'm not sureif my average is better or worse than past contests. I'll see when youupdate the site.
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 2: "Sundial" (290 points)

yeah, definitely thanks for running this again : )
---
Congratulations to yoblazer, winner of the Spring 2k5 Guru Contest!

#1 pick, eh? Sweet, I pulled a creativename (that number was purecalculations). :P Still disappointed with my total score... That's theworst I've done by 10 places.

Still, just soooo many awful changes this year. I practically made that -40 of mine in stupid impulse changes. Ah well.

Youwould've had the #1 pick for the final if it wasn't for your change,too. ;_; Anyway, your situation was similar to mine.

Congrats to DC for winning, and thanks to King Morgoth for running this contest and all the extra side on the side!

---
Yoblazer beat me in the Guru Challenge! Good job!

Heh. I pulled a #1 during Eggman vs Master Hand.
---
BM: Even now, he projects his consciousness into our puny minds.
Sarda: It's called "a radio." 8-bit Theatre

27th hey? Abput average for me.

Congrats to the winners, and to KM.
---
~ Ringworm ~
Congrats yoblazer for beating me in the guru challenge!

9th Place, eh? nice. my best finish yet. ^_^

greatjob, Morgoth!! i really hope you can keep this contest up!! this andthe Guru challenge are my two favorite contests on this board.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

And yes! Thank you very much for running this for us!
---
Congratulations to yoblazer for winning the guru contest.
number 30 on the Sp2k5 leaderboard (pjd4 is my universal name)

Mi faith in Diablo brought me at fourth place. Thanks again, Blizzard!

Congratulationsto Dilated Chemist for, owning all of us, and big thanks to KingMorgoth and all the other people who made the contests a lot moreinteresting with the Oracle Challenge.
---
My ass was obliterated by Yoblazer in the Guru contest.

.I'd like to add another big THANK YOU, King Morgoth, for running the contest. It's always fun. :-)
Thanks.
---
Nobody's perfect, I'm nobody.

A hearty thank you to King Morgoth for all his hard work :)

And congrats to Dilated Chemist. Finishing with a record gap despite half the matches is quite impressive.

As for me, the difference between myself and kawaiifan was trivial, so we basically finished in a tie :)
---
www.SC2K5.com

Thanks thanks thaaaaaaaanks to every single one of you, the comments are always appreciated...
I don't feel like coding right now, but I'll throw a few stats here...

Spring 2005 - Top 5's
1. cyko - 8 Top 5's (1;2;1;1;3)
2. CaptainFluffez - 6 Top 5's (1;0;0;3;2)
3. ina300 - 5 Top 5's (2;1;1;0;1)
4. SlayerofDeitys - 5 Top 5's (1;1;1;1;1)
5. Rufus Shinra 18 - 5 Top 5's (1;1;0;0;3)
6. FastFalcon05 - 5 Top 5's (0;2;1;2;0)
7. Rodri316 - 5 Top 5's (0;0;2;1;2)
8. kawaiifan - 4 Top 5's (1;2;0;1;0)
9. Master Moltar - 4 Top 5's (1;0;1;2;0)
10. creativename - 4 Top 5's (1;0;1;1;1)
11. Alanna82 - 4 Top 5's (0;2;0;2;0)
12. Starion - 4 Top 5's (0;1;1;1;1)
13. dethwing - 3 Top 5's (2;1;0;0;0)
14. Eggplant Lord - 3 Top 5's (1;1;0;1;0)
15. somdude04 - 3 Top 5's (1;1;0;0;1)
16. Haste2 - 3 Top 5's (1;0;2;0;0)
17. GoldenMew - 3 Top 5's (1;0;1;0;1)
18. Fiop - 3 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;2)
19. jonthomson - 3 Top 5's (0;1;1;1;0)
20. King Morgoth - 3 Top 5's (0;1;0;2;0)
21. MegatokyoEd - 3 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;2)
22. Garsha - 3 Top 5's (0;0;3;0;0)
23. Salient - 3 Top 5's (0;0;1;0;2)
24. KrusTy the KloWn - 2 Top 5's (1;1;0;0;0)
24. Phediuk - 2 Top 5's (1;1;0;0;0)
26. Forceful Dragon - 2 Top 5's (1;0;1;0;0)
27. BeTheMan - 2 Top 5's (1;0;0;1;0)
27. Lagoona - 2 Top 5's (1;0;0;1;0)
27. My Immortal - 2 Top 5's (1;0;0;1;0)
30. alpha door - 2 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;1)
30. Darkash - 2 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;1)
32. Claude Rena - 2 Top 5's (0;2;0;0;0)
32. kaonashi1 - 2 Top 5's (0;2;0;0;0)
32. steve illumina - 2 Top 5's (0;2;0;0;0)
35. Duffer11 - 2 Top 5's (0;1;1;0;0)
35. Ngamer64 - 2 Top 5's (0;1;1;0;0)
37. Dranze - 2 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;1)
37. Paratroopa1 - 2 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;1)
37. perdevious - 2 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;1)
37. StopPokingMe - 2 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;1)
41. Ringworm - 2 Top 5's (0;0;2;0;0)
41. Weird Kirby Dude11 - 2 Top 5's (0;0;2;0;0)
43. Heroic Viktor (tnote827) - 2 Top 5's (0;0;1;1;0)
43. Sephirot1 Returns - 2 Top 5's (0;0;1;1;0)
45. Team Rocket Elite - 2 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;1)
45. Xuxon - 2 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;1)
47. Draco1214 - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. Heroic Vivi - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. Janus5000 - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. PeaceOut64 - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. red sox 777 - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. RPGuy96 - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. Sir Bormun - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. SuperSmash Master - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
47. Tai - 1 Top 5's (1;0;0;0;0)
56. HaRRicH - 1 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;0)
56. rachid2 - 1 Top 5's (0;1;0;0;0)
58. AlecTrevelyan006 - 1 Top 5's (0;0;1;0;0)
58. ChichiriMuyo - 1 Top 5's (0;0;1;0;0)
58. UltimaterializerX - 1 Top 5's (0;0;1;0;0)
58. Yesmar - 1 Top 5's (0;0;1;0;0)
62. Ashe Dalmasca - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;0)
62. Camden - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;0)
62. Heroic Mario - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;0)
62. The Wise Tonberry - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;0)
62. Trampoline Justice - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;1;0)
67. Fett0001 - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;0;1)
67. Kaxon - 1 Top 5's (0;0;0;0;1)

Best Top 5 performance ratings per contest:
cyko [SpC2k5] - 17.33
SSJVegeta69 [SC2k3] - 14.04
Haste2/Dilated Chemist [Spc2k4] - 11.77
Rodri316 [SC2k4] - 10.24
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

Bonus Points Standings
1. cyko - 52.17 [8]
2. ina300 - 43.69 [5]
3. kawaiifan - 37.30 [4]
4. FastFalcon05 - 35.82 [5]
5. SlayerofDeitys - 35.02 [5]
6. dethwing - 34.75 [3]
7. CaptainFluffez - 31.22 [6]
8. Master Moltar - 29.81 [4]
9. Rufus Shinra 18 - 29.57 [5]
10. Alanna82 - 29.02 [4]
11. Haste2 - 27.33 [3]
12. Eggplant Lord - 27.32 [3]
13. creativename - 27.26 [4]
14. somdude04 - 24.69 [3]
15. Rodri316 - 24.22 [5]
16. Starion - 24.08 [4]
17. Phediuk - 22.47 [2]
18. KrusTy the KloWn - 22.16 [2]
19. GoldenMew - 22.03 [3]
20. jonthomson - 21.28 [3]
21. Garsha - 20.53 [3]
22. kaonashi1 - 19.93 [2]
23. steve illumina - 19.87 [2]
24. Forceful Dragon - 19.79 [2]
25. King Morgoth - 19.74 [3]
26. Claude Rena - 19.55 [2]
27. BeTheMan - 17.43 [2]
27. Ngamer64 - 17.43 [2]
29. My Immortal - 17.27 [2]
30. Lagoona - 17.23 [2]
31. Fiop - 17.04 [3]
32. Duffer11 - 16.62 [2]
33. alpha door - 14.96 [2]
33. Darkash - 14.96 [2]
35. Weird Kirby Dude11 - 14.88 [2]
36. Ringworm - 14.75 [2]
37. MegatokyoEd - 14.72 [3]
38. red sox 777 - 12.49 [1]
39. Sir Bormun - 12.48 [1]
40. Heroic Vivi - 12.47 [1]
41. Janus5000 - 12.46 [1]
41. Tai - 12.46 [1]
43. PeaceOut64 - 12.45 [1]
44. Paratroopa1 - 12.43 [2]
45. Draco1214 - 12.42 [1]
45. StopPokingMe - 12.42 [2]
47. Dranze - 12.39 [2]
48. perdevious - 12.24 [2]
49. Sephirot1 Returns - 12.14 [2]
50. Salient - 12.13 [3]
51. Heroic Viktor (tnote827) - 12.12 [2]
51. RPGuy96 - 12.12 [1]
53. SuperSmash Master - 11.84 [1]
54. rachid2 - 10.00 [1]
55. HaRRicH - 9.62 [1]
56. UltimaterializerX - 7.44 [1]
57. AlecTrevelyan006 - 7.42 [1]
58. Yesmar - 7.40 [1]
59. Xuxon - 7.38 [2]
60. ChichiriMuyo - 6.80 [1]
61. Team Rocket Elite - 6.78 [2]
62. Camden - 4.97 [1]
62. Heroic Mario - 4.97 [1]
62. Trampoline Justice - 4.97 [1]
65. Ashe Dalmasca - 4.86 [1]
66. The Wise Tonberry - 4.53 [1]
67. Kaxon - 2.49 [1]
68. Fett0001 - 2.44 [1]
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

W00t!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it feels nice to finally take first place in something. ^________^


---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

yay stats!
---
Congratulations to yoblazer, winner of the Spring 2k5 Guru Contest!

Stats, stats, stats, stats!

Goooooooooo STATS!

---
the-elite.net congratulates yoblazer, winner of the Spring '05 Guru Contest!
Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

nice, even though I didnt do so hot this year, I still got 4 top 5 picks.

---
Happiliy married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. "What game is Diablo from"- My friend

*hides from the Purge Monster*

I should have more stats coming up tomorrow...
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

tomorrow being the weekend. In two days. Or something like that...
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

I may not post in this topic, but know that I'm checking every night tomake sure there is a post within the last 48 hours. If there isn't, Ipost.
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 2: "Sundial" (290 points)

It's been a while.

---
Yoblazer beat me in the Guru Challenge! Good job!

So I'm thinking of doing a spin-off of this for the summer contest, andI'm wondering if the idea for it seems sound. The scoring system wouldbe the same as the one currently being used here, but the twist wouldbe that predictions for all 63 matches would have to be submittedbefore the start of the tournament...think of it as Oracle Challenge: Extreme!!!!!!

Thetrick would be scoring any matches after the first round where peoplemight be missing one (or both) of the combatants. I considered allowingpeople to simply make new predictions in exchange for taking a bit of ahit pointwise, but it would take away from the fun of it all if peoplewere allowed to base any of their contest predictions on results fromthat contest. The best method I've come up with so far would be to useextrapolated predictions for those types of matches. I can't quiteexplain what I mean in words, so I'll use a couple of examples:

********************************

Example 1:

Contestant SuperNoob makes the following predictions for a four-pack in his bracket:

Mega Man over Mr. Game & Watch, 84.90% - 15.10%
Gordon Freeman over Yuna, 51.00% - 49.00%
------
Mega Man over Gordon Freeman, 63.00% - 37.00%

Inthis example, let's assume that Yuna actually beat Gordon Freeman52.00% - 48.00%, and that Mega Man won his opening round match. SinceSuperNoob believed that Yuna's strength was .98 that of Gordon Freeman,his prediction for Yuna's second round percentage would be computed as.98 * 37.00, or 36.26.

********************************

Example 2:

Contestant StatsBoi makes the following predictions for a four-pack in his bracket:

CATS over Kuja, 60.00% - 40.00%
Andross over Ghaleon, 53.00% - 47.00%
-------
CATS over Andross, 55.00% - 45.00%

Inthis example, let's assume that Andross won his opening round match,but that Kuja beat CATS. Since StatsBoi believed that Kuja's strengthwas .80 that of CATS, and that Andross's strength was .90 that of CATS,his prediction for the second round match becomes Andross over Kuja,55.56% - 44.44%.

******************************

Example 3:

Contestant BlIzZaRd RuLz makes the following predictions for a four-pack in her bracket:

Diablo over Shadow the Hedgehog, 52.50% - 47.50%
Sarah Kerrigan over Lloyd Irving, 55.00% - 45.00%
-----
Diablo over Sarah Kerrigan, 60.00% - 40.00%

Inthis example, let's assume that Shadow the Hedgehog beat Diablo, andthat Lloyd Irving beat Sarah Kerrigan. BlIzZaRd RuLz believed that thecharacters rated as follows:

Diablo - 50.00%
Shadow the Hedgehog - 47.50%
Sarah Kerrigan - 40.00%
Lloyd Irving - 36.00%

Therefore,the prediction for her second round match would be extrapolated asShadow the Hedgehog over Lloyd Irving, 62.11% - 37.89%.

*******************************

Theone problem I can see with this method would be accounting for SFF. Foran extreme example, let's say a four-pack read something like:

Link over Duke Nukem, 83.00% - 17.00%
Ganondorf over Auron, 52.50% - 47.50%
-----
Link over Ganondorf, 85.00% - 15.00%

Thatperson would be in serious trouble if Auron beat Ganondorf, becausetheir second-round projection would become Link over Auron, 85.75% -14.25%.

I suppose that I could let people submit "what-if"scenarios should anything like this show up on the bracket, as thereshouldn't be too many instances where something like this could occur.

******************************

Anyway...for those who read through the muck:

1) Is it an okay idea?
2) What improvements would you suggest?
3) Is it something you'd consider participating in?
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

I like the idea, but I don't like your system of using extrapolatedpredictions. I say you let people do something like make up to 4predictions for each match, depending on who the entrants are. Forexample, if the first round matches are A vs. B and C vs. D, then forround 2, a prediction would be something like

If A vs. C, A with 60%
If A vs. D, A with 58%
If B vs. C, B with 51%
If B vs. D., D with 50.2%

Ofcourse, for later rounds, this could get out of hand, so there wouldhave to be some limit on the number of possible pairs you could predictfor. If your pair is not the actual pair, then you automatically get nopoints. I just picked 4 out of the air, maybe I slightly larger numberwould be better.
---
Despite being in an 11-way tie for 4th in the Guru challenge, I got totally owned by Yoblazer.

Hmm...
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 2: "Sundial" (290 points)

I like this idea, as long as it doesn't take over the classic Oracle.

I also think that doing extrapolated would be too controversial.
---
My ass was obliterated by Yoblazer in the Guru contest.

I've got a few Oracle Post-Its all over the place but can't seem to find the time to do it...

Comments on the new idea:
1) Is it an okay idea? The concept is great.
2) What improvements would you suggest? Having a robot update the scores...>_>
3) Is it something you'd consider participating in? Quite obviously yessssssss.
4) Would you consider running it? Not a chance in hell.

Player's point of view:
Amazingidea, I had thought of something like that (predicting all matchesbeforehand) but never bothered to put the idea on paper, seemed tocomplicated. Nice to see someone come up with a clear and conciseconcept for it! I would definitely enter the challenge and thename sounds just right. I like the idea of the extrapolated standings,but that may be my host-side taking over. More below.

Host's point of view:
Thisis where it'll hurt. First, you need to know it'll be worse than youthink ;). Second, no if statements/multi predictions. EVER. That wouldforce the host to update appropriate predictions, daily, every singleday. Extrapolated predictions would be a wonderful idea, updating-wise,as it'd allow the host to enter extrapolated standings for allentrants, and use VLOOKUP's to look for the entrants' predictions fortoday's match. Instead of figuring it out every day, by hand.

Updatingthese things is a pain, and every effort has to be made to make thehost's work bearable. As for the scoring system, the ideal IMO would bethe standard scoring system, with a 50% penalty is you don't have thematch winner in that match, a 75% penalty if you don't have the matchloser in that match, a 90% penalty if you don't have either character,applied to your extrapolated prediction. Needless to say it'd be prettyunupdatable, so I'd settle for classic score if you have the entrants,0 if you don't.

*is open for replies*
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

I think it's an interesting idea, but I don't like theauto-extrapolating part. The challenge suffers in that it only"changes" your predictions when you predict a winnerincorrectly...however, matches that you call correctly but areextremely far off what you expected are also very significant, yetthose couldn't alter your predictions for any of the later rounds.

Also,another thing, kinda tough to explain, but here goes. Right right nowthe auto-calculations are based on keeping your original winnerconstant in strength, meaning any incorrect guesses would be a resultof purely "underestimating" that character that pulled off the upset,yet clearly many upsets are a result of people overestimating thecharacter that lost. It's also often a combination of the two. I thinkit might be better if there wasn't any auto-extrapolation at all incases of upsets, but to just keep your percentage predictions exactlythe same. So, if you have Link over Raziel with 75%, but Strider beatRaziel previously (with, say, 55%) you'd have a "new" prediction ofLink with 75% over Strider. So, yeah, nice and simple...not that Ithink it'd be much better. At least it doesn't have the sloppy methodof only changing character's extrapolated values if you predict a matchincorrectly.

Part of the fun of the Oracle Challenge is totake previous results in the current contest and see how you interpretthem. It's almost blind luck guessing on how characters have changedfrom past years. Sure, some characters will obviously change (Cloudwith Advent Children), but others have changed in popularity for noapparent reason (Solid Snake). Besides that, I wouldn't want to seeextrapolated standings take control over a contest at all...

Iapologize for the slamming...well, I had to speak my mind. In allhonesty, I'd probably participate in that contest regardless. =P

Oh,and I'd love to hear moreideas on how to improve a contest like that,but I can't think of any at the moment. I was thinking about Aprosenf'sidea of just making a list of predictions in case of any possibleupset, but that's also flawed because you still can't take into accountmargins of victory at all, but strictly only victories. I suppose itCOULD work, but it would still be very sloppy...

I would love tosee an adjustment to the Oracle Challenge by having all predictionssubmitted in secret (you know, through e-mail) so that you can't useothers' predictions as a guide for your own.

---
Yoblazer beat me in the Guru Challenge! Good job!

I appreciate the feedback so far...going to have to think long and hard about a fair system for handling the later rounds.
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

Hmm. I think I'd have come a lot higher had I not gambled with upsets in the last two matches. Meh :-)
---
Jon Thomson - 70 points with a Sephiroth win.
I am to yoblazer as the Yankees are to the Red Sox. Inferior.

The idea is interesting, but I do personally think that adjusting totrends that appear during the contest is a big part of what makes theOracle Challenge so good.

Ifyou did do it, I definitely recommend a system where your loser isirrelevant, and you can't get any points if your winner isn't in thematch. For example, if you have Link winning round 2 with 75%, itdoesn't matter who he ends up facing, your prediction stays the same.But if Link loses to CATS in round 1, then you can't get any points forthe match in round 2.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

Hm, I'm not so sure I like the idea of getting no points if your winnerin a round 2 match didn't win the round 1 match. The problem with thisis that it rewards people who get the most matches right far too much.We already have a contest like that. The person who did get the match'swinner right could have an absolutely TERRIBLE prediction, like, say,Link over Ganondorf with 58%, and still come out an entire 20 pointsahead. That's no small defecit, and would be rather hard to make up(ignoring the questionable integrity of that person's ability if theypicked Link with 58%). This is not a problem in the Oracle challenge,because you're not locked into your winners; even though I pickedRidley over Diablo in round 1, I was still able to save myself fromtotal loss by making good Diablo picks in the next two rounds.

Don'tget me wrong, I love the idea, I'm just voicing my concerns about howwell this would work in practice, since I agree with the concerns thathave risen over other scoring methods. But if you can think of a goodway to do this, I'd love to see it. Even with flawed scoring, it couldbe very interesting to try at least once.

This is not a problem in the Oracle challenge, because you're notlocked into your winners; even though I picked Ridley over Diablo inround 1, I was still able to save myself from total loss by making goodDiablo picks in the next two rounds.

I still don't get whywe have to get penalized double for every percent you are off when youget an incorrect pick... All it does is encourage hedging and makemaking correct predictions of the winner too important. I think pickingLiquid Snake over Lavos with 66% is just as poor as picking Ridley overDiablo with 52%: Oh, well, I'm just recycling an argument that I'm sureto lose again... =P

Anyway, King Morgoth, if you ever have aday where you have nothing to do, could you make standings for thiscontest purely based on how far you were off, with no taking accountfor any winners? (Oh, and other contests, too, if you have the time...)Just a small request...no need to feel obligated.

---
Yoblazer beat me in the Guru Challenge! Good job!

I agree with Haste2 actually, I kind of think the only thing thatshould matter is how far you're off and not which winner you have. Butthat would definitely change the contest... I'm kind of hesitant to doit since the current formula works so well.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

If you did that though, wouldn't everything become a lot closer, too?For the most part, this contest is really close as is. Plus it wouldtake away from upset picks, and there is something to be said foractually getting the winner right. I mean, the actual contest couldn'tcare less how close the matches are, a win is a win, and a loss is aloss.
---
Congratulations to yoblazer, winner of the Spring 2k5 Guru Contest!

Anyway, King Morgoth, if you ever have a day where you have nothingto do, could you make standings for this contest purely based on howfar you were off, with no taking account for any winners? (Oh, andother contests, too, if you have the time...) Just a small request...noneed to feel obligated.

Days where I have nothing to do area tale of the past my friend... The good thing is it's a matter ofroughly 5 minutes coming up with the pure 50-x stats, so I might havetime tonight, after I update a few other things.

As I'm typing this from work (small break in between 2 ugly tasks), I'll comment on the rest of the discussion later tonight...
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

As requested, Spring 2005 "50-x" results:
http://members.lycos.co.uk/oraclechallenge/request1.html

As we're talking about scores, I'm a big fan of 50-2x on the wrong side myself.
---
I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

Wow, I would've fallen two places? That's unexpected. XD

Anyway,yeah, I'm also not so sure how I feel about 45-2x, but it seems to workout okay and I don't have much of a problem with it. But then gettingno points if you pick that winner to go even further... no.

As we're talking about scores, I'm a big fan of 50-2x on the wrong side myself.

Personally,I'd prefer 45-x over 50-2x. My reasoning is that the 2x part is whatreally encourages hedging. With 45-x, getting the right winner stillmatters, but you take away the big incentive to pick scores near 50%.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

Maybe even 40-x since that would make the penalty for being wrongcloser to what it is now, while still removing the incentive to hedge.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

Thanks a lot.

Went up 7 places...not bad.Anyway, I caught up a whopping 46 points to Dilated Chemist. See howmuch damage missing a few matches will do based on the penalty? =P

Oh, and I'd also like to see 45-x, or even 40-x.

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Yoblazer beat me in the Guru Challenge! Good job!

Personally, I'd prefer 45-x over 50-2x. My reasoning is that the 2xpart is what really encourages hedging. With 45-x, getting the rightwinner still matters, but you take away the big incentive to pickscores near 50%.

My reasoning is that the 45-2xencourages hedging. People aren't afraid to lose the 2x itself, they'reafraid to lose more than the 5 points they already lost...
And furthermore, Exhibit A:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/oracle/oracle59.html

Y helo thar hedging. With 25-x. The more you penalize someone for picking the wrong winner, the less they want to take an additional risk...
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I've been officially pwned by yoblazer, best Guru of 'em all.

The data might agree with you, but it's still not logical. =)

Theproblem with the existing system is that the risk and reward aren'tequal. If your pick is 51%, you're risking two points to gain onepoint. Unless you're quite confident, it makes more sense to justpredict 50%.

You have to pick a winner, so there's no way youcan change your prediction to avoid the penalty for being wrong. You'llpredict the outcome that you think is most likely. On the other hand,you can reduce the impact of the 2x penalty, so that creates an incentive to move your prediction closer to 50%.

Inthe Mario vs Sephiroth match, I think those people actually thought thematch would be close, it wasn't that the scoring system made themchange their predictions.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

hmm, been a day, so.
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Congratulations to yoblazer, winner of the Spring 2k5 Guru Contest!

Interesting.

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Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.

I got that much higher with the 50-x?

I guess Diablo messed me up more than I thought.
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Yoblazer pwned me in the Guru Contest...
Hope you win, Yoblazer.