And my long sojourn to find a partner is complete!

This union with Wigs will certainly be a fruitful one.
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
Cepastat.

I'll join with random partner.
---
Se stai leggendo questa signature, vuol dire che capisci l'italiano. Bravo!

I'll team up with ad00 then. ;)

Name is up to you.
---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Now that team signups have slowed down, there's one more topic to discuss for this year's Oracle Challenge - the scoring system. Last year there there was some support for changing the scoring system for times when you pick the wrong winner. Just as a reminder, you get 50-x points for picking the right winner, where x is how many % your prediction was off. These are three main options for what should happen when you pick the wrong winner:

1. 45-2x. This is the traditional system. When you're wrong, you lose 2 points for every % off you are instead of 1. There's also a flat 5 point penalty for being wrong. One of the big advantages of this system is that it keeps the contest exciting by allowing risk taking. If you pick a big upset and it pays off, you can gain a lot of points.

One of the big downsides is that you can lose a lot of points compared to someone who predicted almost the same outcome as you. For example, someone who predicted Master Chief with 50% gets 5 points less than someone who predicted Frog with 50%. Even more extreme, someone who predicted Samus with 50% gets nearly 15 points less than someone who predicted Mario with 50%, even though both of them were predicting a very close match and both were way off.

One other disadvantage is that this system arguably encourages people to hedge their picks in order to avoid the 2x penalty, rather than predicting what they actually think is most likely.

2. 50-x. Pure percentage scoring. In this system, your score would always be determined by how many percentage points off you were, regardless of whether you picked the right winner. Some might argue that this system is truest to the idea of the Oracle Challenge - it's all about predicting the percentage of the outcome, and the difference between 49% and 51% is the same as the difference between 51% and 53%. It would also reduce the role of luck in matches where the two competitors are basically equal.

One of the main downsides of this system is that without a penalty for being wrong, it's a lot harder to take a risk and benefit from an upset. People who fall behind may feel like they have no chance to catch up, and the contest may become less exciting.

3. 45-x. This is a cross between the other two ideas. Unlike the current system, there's no extreme punishment when you're on the wrong side of a 60-40 match. You'll still lose a lot of points, but you won't lose twice as many as someone who also predicted a 50-50 match but got the winner right. On the other hand, there's still a 5 point penalty for having the wrong winner, so picking an upset does get you somewhere if you're right.

On the other hand, a downside could be that there won't be as big a potential for shakeups as there is in the current system. It might make it less exciting, but it's hard to know without trying it. This is the option I support because I think it's the best balance between making the contest exciting, allowing risks to be rewarded, but not punishing people too much just for being unlucky.
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

Thats a little confusing, but I'm sure I'll understand it better when the contest begins
---
The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa

I prefer Option 4:
Winner = 50-X
Loser = 45-X
Easy and impartial, right?
---
"I should have been the one to fill your DARKNESS with LIGHT!" - Dante after playing KH2

*rereads* O wait. That is option 3. I misread a little, but it's the same thing.
---
"I should have been the one to fill your DARKNESS with LIGHT!" - Dante after playing KH2

Yeah, it's more a question for the people who've been in this contest before. It'll be easy to understand once we pick one and start the contest.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

I'd prefer that we stick with 45-2x, because if we don't I'm going to be constantly asking "alright, and what would that match average have come out to under the old scoring system?" However, I can see how you'd make a case for 45-x, and will support that decision if we decide to go that route. However, I despise 50-x, and resolve to egg your team's houses if you take us that direction this Season.

---
"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

I'll take Naye, of course.

---
Methinks me thinks too much.
MakeYourChance

People looking for a partner:
1. GoldSlime35 (? not sure if he's actually looking for a partner)
2. greatone10 (random partner ok)
3. dethwing (random partner ok)
4. SephirothG (requested solarshadow or agasonex)
5. Grand_Healer (requested windmage)
6. alpha door
7. Master Moltar
8. supdawg
9. MegatokyoEd
10. Sephirot1 Returns
11. Seginustemple (any partner ok)
12. Sir Chris
13. Yesmar
14. Lieutenant Kettch (random partner ok)
15. ssknuxmagician (any partner ok)
16. Rufus Shinra 18 (random partner ok)

Current Teams:
1. Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon/King Morgoth)
2. Team Horrible Rivalry (KleenexTissue50/Applekidjosh)
3. Team Robo Chocobo Remix (Vlado/Inviso)
4. Team Indestructable Jerky (Shoenin_Kakashi/Lopen)
5. Team Umbrella Corporation (FFDragon/Luis_Sera89)
6. Team Predictors on Steroids (Paratroopa1/GrapefruitKing)
7. Team Loop Troops (Zylo the wolf/yoblazer33)
8. Team Predestined Divination (Ngamer64/creativename)
9. Team Crab People (th3l3fty/Caelus)
10. Team The Flying Buttresses (Draco1214/Rodri316)
11. Team M-O-O-N That Spells Hoss (warning_crazy/longbladeofhiko)
12. Team The Drunkadelict Armadillos (Dekar TKB/Giggsalot)
13. Team Happy Happyists (Camden/meche313)
14. Team ??? (Lightbearer75/Ayvuir)
15. Team Fodder (Pats_Dynasty/Coffee Ninja)
16. Team Koopa Troopers (dethfddddh/ledfanatic4)
17. Team ??? (Ed Bellis/Explicit Content)
18. Team Organization II (Big Bob/SuperSmash Master)
19. Team Jay Solano (transience/Team Rocket Elite)
20. Team Jigglypuff (kawaiifan/Alanna82)
21. Team soxdude777 (red sox 777/somdude04)
22. Team ??? (Janus5000/LivingInAComa)
23. Team ??? (Z1mZum/WiggumFan267)
24. Team ??? (ad00/The Cruel Angel)
25. Team ??? (MakeYourChance/Naye745)
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

Ok...I'm in. Pair me with anyone.
---
During universal times of deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

As always I'm in favor of purity, and 50-x is best. But this would not be popular and so isn't really an option. 45-x is good though, certainly better than 45-2x.

Remember, in the end we want to reward skill; making things exciting is secondary. Get enough skilled people involved (like there always are) and things will become exciting enough on their own, no need for government intervention, so to speak.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

hmm... I kind of like all three, so it doesn't matter too much to me. 45-x seems a good middle-ground - I like the idea of purity, but also the idea of getting the winner right.

one thing I don't like are people who pick someone with 50% as a way to be the "least wrong". I'd rather a risky pick rewarded you, and it makes the leaderboard more interesting.
---
xyzzy

I'm fine with 45-x or 45-2x. If I have to choose, however, I'll say I like 45-x the most. And looks like a happy-medium, IMO.
---
Then think about Kirby...oh man, Kirby wearing a Teflon plate on his chest would be awesome.--Harrich, expressing the awesomeness of having 50cent in SSBB.

Remember, in the end we want to reward skill; making things exciting is secondary. Get enough skilled people involved (like there always are) and things will become exciting enough on their own, no need for government intervention, so to speak.

I don't think that's entirely true. We do want to reward skill, but if people feel like it's impossible for them to come back, they will lose some interest. Also, you could argue that evaluating which risks are worth taking based on where you are in the standings is a test of skill. However, that said I still think the Oracle Challenge will be exciting with a different scoring system.

one thing I don't like are people who pick someone with 50% as a way to be the "least wrong". I'd rather a risky pick rewarded you, and it makes the leaderboard more interesting.

I think that getting rid of the 2x will help with that. My reasoning is that right now, if you move your pick from 50% to 51%, you're essentially risking 2 points to gain 1 point. If the result is higher than 51%, then a pick of 51% is 1 point better than a pick of 50%, whereas if the result is below 50%, then the 51% pick is 2 points worse. Under the 45-x or 50-x system, the amount you risk is always equal to the potential gain.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

*Signs* I need a partner
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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin

I like the 45-X option.

since it does let more people take risks. Basically I ended up failing really badly last year because I didnt hedge and too many people did. (I did good in 2004, but there were alot more people around in 2005, so more people hedging make it harder to catch up.)

(and the few times I did hedge, I ended up worse than my original prediction. >_>)
---
Happiliy married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. My Idol: ACE YOUNG. ^_^

Oh snap, I didn't read the first post but once I saw the topic title I had to SIGN UP!

---
=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.

Yeah... so

Who wants to team with me?

---
=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.

I'd like to request Master Moltar.

---
=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.

Purity is all fine and good, but I agree with Kaxon here... it also takes skill to be able to predict the right winner. If you take Samus with 60% and instead Mario wins with 60%, well, that was clearly a foolish pick, and I think you deserve to be scored like a fool.

Speaking of which, let's do that as a test case! Kax, what scores would you have ended up with under the different scoring systems had you picked Samus 60, 55, 50, and so forth?

---
"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

*is cyko on borrowed account*

dang. looks like i got beat to Moltar by a few minutes since i just saw this. bah. well, i would also like to invite either Moltar or DC if they wind up not teaming up. if they do team up, then i would like to have Yesmar.

---
MAD CADDIES!!!

Oh my, it is DC.

You're totally going down.
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
Cepastat.

Me and SythaWarrior
---
Don't quote me. - Blulum

Interesting idea. I'm probably too erratic for this, but I still manage to do well in some matches (Check most Top 5's...). I'll sign up with whoever is interested though, or whoever I get stuck with.
---
~ Ringworm ~

Speaking of which, let's do that as a test case! Kax, what scores would you have ended up with under the different scoring systems had you picked Samus 60, 55, 50, and so forth?

We'll pretend Mario got exactly 60% instead of 59.79%. Here are your scores under the three systems:

(45-2x)
Samus with 60% - 5
Samus with 55% - 15
Samus with 50% - 25
Mario with 50% - 40

(45-x)
Samus with 60% - 25
Samus with 55% - 30
Samus with 50% - 35
Mario with 50% - 40

(50-x)
Samus with 60% - 30
Samus with 55% - 35
Samus with 50% - 40
Mario with 50% - 40

And under all of them:
Mario with 60% - 50
Mario with 70% - 40
Mario with 80% - 30
Mario with 90% - 20
Mario with 100% - 10 (still higher than Samus with 60% in the current system!)

*is cyko on borrowed account*
dang. looks like i got beat to Moltar by a few minutes since i just saw this. bah. well, i would also like to invite either Moltar or DC if they wind up not teaming up. if they do team up, then i would like to have Yesmar.

Everyone wants Moltar!
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Ya, Me and Theo72 are a team. Call us Team Interception unless he has a better idea.
---
Tweeeked: Board 8's Resident Meowsterbater --- Meowsterbating daily; one cat at a time.

I'm for anything other than 50-x. The original 45-2x is still my favorite just because I'm so used to it, but 45-x is fine as well. I just don't like removing the risk factor all together. I've never decided to take the favorite when I wanted to take the underdog because it might cost me too many points. If I'm taking the underdog, I honestly think that he's going to win the match. I'll make the same prediction under a harsher system or a less severe system.

You can bring up how taking Mario with 50% nets so many more points than taking Samus with 50%, but I don't like the idea that, if I choose the correct winner with 54%, and he wins with 51.5%, that someone who didn't even choose the correct winner and hedged with 50% is going to score more than me.
---
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
Don’t worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken

To be honest, I think 45-x is the best. 45-2x is too big a punishment, in my opinion; when Mario with 100% is as good a pick as Samus with 57.5%, something's not right. 50-x doesn't make sense either, though.

I like 45 - 2x. And I think I was the one punished most for that rule. Picking the correct winner should be very significant, I think.
---
Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

My only problem there is that we already have a contest for picking the correct winner. I think more focus should be put on predicting the gap in percentage.

Team up with my Oracle rival DC?






Alright, we're a team.

And I like the 45-2x system. Keeps it exciting.
---
Moltar Fact #19: Moltar never played the original KH and thought it was lame, yet likes KH2.

Anyone want to team with me?

Mammoth
---
MK:DS- PNess- 347952-395028
Mammoth, change your name from PNess to PWNess. I DEMAND IT! - Rad Link 5

Also, I think 45-2x encourages hedging more than 45-x, and hedging sucks.

I think I'll sign up this year. What do you get for winning or losing?
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!)

I think I'll give this a go
---
Throw your life away...FOR JUSTICE!!

I think I'll sign up this year. What do you get for winning or losing?

Just bragging rights, and the recognition that comes from winning one of the board's biggest and most skill intensive contests. ;)
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

One of? More like the!

---
"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

If RX7 signs up, or his sister, I'll take one of them. other wise, I'll be with anyone.
---
"It was a weird night, with the Sexual Foot of Desire and the Sexual Moose of Lust and all"- Iamdead7.

One of? More like the!

Hey, it took skill to win my Ed Bellis Award, thank you very much!
---
This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27224550

If you take Samus with 60% and instead Mario wins with 60%, well, that was clearly a foolish pick, and I think you deserve to be scored like a fool.

Not a good example because no one was taking anybody with 60% in that match. Clearly taking Samus in that match was not foolish in the last bit. Only 3 people out of 68 had either character with over 55%. Taking Mario with a high percentage was also not really related to skill - as is easily evident if you look at the final ranks of the people who had the top 10 best picks in that match: 57, 37, 75, 11, 33, 4, 34, 63, 51, 41

Let's not get too hung up on this single Samus/Mario match anyway. The important thing to understand is that in such toss-up matches, success is mainly a noise process in relation to skill (not entirely but primarily). i.e. mainly luck. The main skill involved really would be choosing the most middling pick possible, a risk-aversion skill, due to the exaggerated penalty as has already been discussed.

If we're using Samus/Mario as some sort of classic example then this is readily seen by doing some quick math. The correlation between the percentage people picked for Mario in that match against the amount of points people ended up with excluding the points from that match itself: 0.0112. Clearly almost a pure noise process. Now if you correlate the points from that actual match (instead of the prediction percentage) vs. the points from all other matches, it rises to 0.066; extremely low and possibly random but the slight correlation is probably due to risk-aversion being rewarded (since points gained are rules-related, whereas pick percentages are not).
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

If we're using Samus/Mario as some sort of classic example then this is readily seen by doing some quick math. The correlation between the percentage people picked for Mario in that match against the amount of points people ended up with excluding the points from that match itself: 0.0112. Clearly almost a pure noise process. Now if you correlate the points from that actual match (instead of the prediction percentage) vs. the points from all other matches, it rises to 0.066; extremely low and possibly random but the slight correlation is probably due to risk-aversion being rewarded (since points gained are rules-related, whereas pick percentages are not).

Eh?
---
"I should have been the one to fill your DARKNESS with LIGHT!" - Dante after playing KH2

Several new teams, including a dangerous DC/Moltar combo...

People looking for a partner:
1. GoldSlime35 (? not sure if he's actually looking for a partner)
2. greatone10 (random partner ok)
3. dethwing (random partner ok)
4. SephirothG (requested solarshadow or agasonex)
5. Grand_Healer (requested windmage)
6. alpha door
7. supdawg (any partner ok)
8. MegatokyoEd (any partner ok)
9. Sephirot1 Returns
10. Seginustemple (any partner ok)
11. Sir Chris (requested MYC)
12. Yesmar
13. Lieutenant Kettch (random partner ok)
14. ssknuxmagician (any partner ok)
15. Rufus Shinra 18 (random partner ok)
16. fortybelowsummer (any partner ok)
17. Shivan Reincarnated (random partner ok?)
18. cyko (requested Yesmar)
19. Ringworm (any partner ok)
20. ObscureMammoth
21. therealmnm
22. Radix
23. yoshifan823 (requested rx7 or rx7's sister, otherwise any partner ok)

Current Teams:
1. Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon/King Morgoth)
2. Team Horrible Rivalry (KleenexTissue50/Applekidjosh)
3. Team Robo Chocobo Remix (Vlado/Inviso)
4. Team Indestructable Jerky (Shoenin_Kakashi/Lopen)
5. Team Umbrella Corporation (FFDragon/Luis_Sera89)
6. Team Predictors on Steroids (Paratroopa1/GrapefruitKing)
7. Team Loop Troops (Zylo the wolf/yoblazer33)
8. Team Predestined Divination (Ngamer64/creativename)
9. Team Crab People (th3l3fty/Caelus)
10. Team The Flying Buttresses (Draco1214/Rodri316)
11. Team M-O-O-N That Spells Hoss (warning_crazy/longbladeofhiko)
12. Team The Drunkadelict Armadillos (Dekar TKB/Giggsalot)
13. Team Happy Happyists (Camden/meche313)
14. Team ??? (Lightbearer75/Ayvuir)
15. Team Fodder (Pats_Dynasty/Coffee Ninja)
16. Team Koopa Troopers (dethfddddh/ledfanatic4)
17. Team ??? (Ed Bellis/Explicit Content)
18. Team Organization II (Big Bob/SuperSmash Master)
19. Team Jay Solano (transience/Team Rocket Elite)
20. Team Jigglypuff (kawaiifan/Alanna82)
21. Team soxdude777 (red sox 777/somdude04)
22. Team ??? (Janus5000/LivingInAComa)
23. Team ??? (Z1mZum/WiggumFan267)
24. Team ??? (ad00/The Cruel Angel)
25. Team ??? (MakeYourChance/Naye745)
26. Team ??? (outback/SythaWarrior)
27. Team Interception (Tweeeked/Theo72)
28. Team ??? (Master Moltar/Dilated Chemist)
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

Actually on second thought... take me off.
---
Nominate Mewtwo for the 2006 contest!! (80 noms) http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27040426

Submitting our team name as "Moltar and DC are Going Down."

I, of course, did not ask Wiggum, so if he can think of something better, go with it.
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
Cepastat.

50 - x
45 - x
45 - 2x

Why no 50 - 2x?
---
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. - Macbeth

Mostly because I wanted to keep it to three choices, and I thought that one would have the fewest supporters. It doesn't address the hedging issue, which seems to be one of the bigger complaints. It does make it so you don't lose many points for picking the wrong winner in a tossup, which some people would like.
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27379470

I'll take any partner, btw, although preferably one that I've heard of. But don't expect me to change my guesses to improve the team score >_>
---
Official Chrono Trigger Fan
I. Want. Spore. Now.

EC and I will be calling ourselves "Team Auto-Lose." Book it.
---
This was Ed Bellis.