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SpC2k5 - Oracle Challenge - Round 2 - Mushroom / Jenova Divisions
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:54:21 AM | Message Detail
The Challenge

For each match in the GameFAQs SpringContest you need to pick a winner and predict the percentage of thevote they will receive. New participants are still being accepted untilat least the end of round 3 (please indicate that you are new and makea minimum of three picks).

Here are some examples of a valid entry:

Link with 85%
CATS - 60.05
Link over CATS 70.6%
Link vs. CATS 52%
Link 55.13

Thefirst option is preferable, but as long as it is clear which characteryou expect to win and what percentage you think it will achieve, youshould be alright.

The Scoring

For each match youwill earn points based on how close your guess was to the actualoutcome. Scoring is cumulative and the winner of the Oracle Challengewill be the person with the most points at the end of the final match.For each match you can earn anywhere between 0 and 50 points. Thisdepends on whether you correctly picked the winner and how close yourguess was to the actual percentage. The scoring system works as follows:

Correctly choosing the winner earns you 50-x points.
Incorrectly choosing the winner earns you 45-2x points.
(Where x is the difference between your guess and the character's actual percentage.)

Example:

Your guess: Link - 65%
My guess: CATS - 55%
Actual result: Link 60%, CATS 40%
Your points: 50 - (65-60) = 45 points
My points: 45 - 2*(55-40) = 15 points

Bonuspoints are awarded for the closest five guesses each match but do notfactor into the overall scoring. They are used only as a side ranking.Participants will also be ranked by average score from time to time.

The Rules

It is necessary to have a few rules to keep the challenge running smoothly. They are:

1)A valid entry consists of a clear pick and prediction (i.e. Link -85.03%). The prediction must be greater than or equal to 50.00%. Noalts, please. All predictions should be made with your main account tomake things easier on me. If you need to change accounts please let meknow.
2) Your prediction does not need to be different fromeverybody else’s guess. However, intentional and continuous predictionmimicry will not be allowed.
3) All predictions must be made onefull hour before the usual start time of that match’s poll (approx.2:00am EST, 1:00am CST, 11:00pm PST). Predictions submitted after thistime will not be counted or may be subject to penalty. No predictionswill be accepted after a poll has started, regardless of the start time.
4)You may change your prediction for any match at any time, subject tothe rules above. Please indicate clearly that this is a change to aprevious entry.
5) You many not delete any post in a predictiontopic (if you do, please post immediately after to explain thedeletion). This is to prevent abuse of the above rule (and to reduceconfusion).
6) You may predict matches in advance if you need to. Please make this very clear.
7) I reserve the right to disqualify a pick for any justifiable reason.

Let the Oracle Challenge test your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:54:54 AM | Message Detail
NEW ORACLE WEBSITE
http://www-etud.iro.umontreal.ca/~henaultv/
No more ads!!!

I am now accepting predictions for the first half of Round 2:
Mushroom Division
Bowser vs Sigma
Revolver Ocelot vs Dr. Wily

Jenova Division
Sephiroth vs Vergil
Lavos vs Liquid Snake

I am also still accepting predictions for the remaining matches Round 1:
Ruin Division
Luca Blight vs Wesker
Albedo vs M.Bison
Ridley vs Diablo

Triforce Division
Ganondorf vs Giygas
Ansem vs CATS
Dr. Robotnik vs Sin
Kuja vs Master Hand
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:56:11 AM | Message Detail
Bowser with 64.91%
Ocelot with 51.22%
Sephiroth with 74.59%
Liquid Snake with 59.33%
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:56:23 AM | Message Detail
tag
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 1: "Hourglass" (180 points)
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:58:29 AM | Message Detail
New picks:
Bowser with 64.90%
Dr. Wily with 51.75%
Sephiroth with 76.88%
Liquid Snake with 69.95%
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:07:42 AM | Message Detail
Match #8 Results:
Liquid Snake 79.46%
Officer Tenpenny 20.54%

Liquidblows out San Andreas' dirty cop with an almost 80% win. All 87predictions were for Liquid, the consensus was low at 71.76% and theaverage was only 41.69 points.

Current Leaderboard:

1) MegatokyoEd - 377.17
2) Weird Kirby Dude11 - 361.77
3) kawaiifan - 361.48
4) Dilated Chemist - 361.40
5) Ngamer64 - 361.21

MegatokyoEdcreates a huge 15-point gap between him and the tight pack followinghim. Weird Kirby Dude11 jumps up 16 spots to grab 2nd place whiledefending champion kawaiifan comes back to the leaderboard in 3rd,pushing Dilated Chemist down to 4th. Ngamer completes the leaderboardin 5th. There is a bigger gap between 1st and 2nd than between 2ndand...42nd!

Full standings: http://www-etud.iro.umontreal.ca/~henaultv/current.php?total=08

Best Five Picks:

1) Tai - Liquid Snake 79.30% (+49.84)
2) ina300 - Liquid Snake 79.00% (+49.54)
3) AlecTrevelyan006 - Liquid Snake 80.00% (+49.46)
3) Weird Kirby Dude11 - Liquid Snake 80.00% (+49.46)
5) perdevious - Liquid Snake 80.20% (+49.26)

Despitethe surprising result, quite a few good picks today. Tai,AlecTrevelyan006 and Weird Kirby Dude11 grab their 1st Top 5 of theseason while ina300 and perdevious come back for the 2nd time.

Complete match ranking: http://www-etud.iro.umontreal.ca/~henaultv/current.php?match=08

Biggest jumps

Weird Kirby Dude11, +16, from 18th to 2nd
Goldenmew, +16, from 30th to 14th
KrusTy the KloWn, +16, from 41st to 25th
CaptainFluffez, +16, from 48th to 32nd
Aprosenf, +14, from 53rd to 39th
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: Lagoona | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:08:05 AM | Message Detail
.First round 2 safety picks:

Mushroom Division
Bowser vs Sigma - Bowser with 70.45%
Revolver Ocelot vs Dr. Wily - Ocelot with 52.01%

Jenova Division
Sephiroth vs Vergil - Sephiroth with 78.09%
Lavos vs Liquid Snake - Liquid Snake with 71.52%

---
Nobody's perfect, I'm nobody.
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:08:21 AM | Message Detail
Wow, that was a fast update. Jesus. O_o

I'm off the leaderboard -.-
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:09:37 AM | Message Detail
Wow, that was a fast update. Jesus. O_o
7:42, that'd be my new record yeah =P
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:12:03 AM | Message Detail
Hooray for the new website, but boo for me dropping back down to 41st.
---
SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS in the Spring Contest.
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:14:47 AM | Message Detail
Going up up up!
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 1: "Hourglass" (180 points)
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:24:16 AM | Message Detail
As I've closed the other topic, I've uploaded all the remaining predictions for Round 1:
http://www-etud.iro.umontreal.ca/~henaultv/round1.html
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: somdude04 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:26:35 AM | Message Detail
Bowser with 72.89%
Ocelot with 57.23%
Sephiroth with 74.23%
Liquid with 68.72%

GJ
---
Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Wily||Sephiroth, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid
Kefka, Wesker, Bison, Diablo||Ganondorf, CATS, Sin, Kuja
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:54:50 AM | Message Detail
http://www-etud.iro.umontreal.ca/~henaultv/round1.html

Is it just me, or are the tables really ****ed up?
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 1: "Hourglass" (180 points)
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:56:25 AM | Message Detail
Repost:

Kefka - 68.83%
Wesker - 63.90%
M. Bison - 57.84%
Ridley - 50.10%
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 1: "Hourglass" (180 points)
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:59:42 AM | Message Detail
Looks fine to me.

---
Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Lagoona | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:02:28 AM | Message Detail
.Looks fine to me as well.

And please CHANGE my Diablo prediction to 50.55% (over Ridley).
---
Nobody's perfect, I'm nobody.
From: Salient | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:03:21 AM | Message Detail
Bowser - 71.68%
Ocelot - 50.25%
Sephy - 75.96%
Liquid - 62%
---
~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
http://www.geocities.com/bernardalgain/Lufia2/Lufia2_Wacky/Salient.png
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:03:28 AM | Message Detail
Predictions, predictions, predictions.

Ganondorf with 90%
Ansem with 65%
Dr. Robotnik with 51%
Kuja with 57%

Round 2:

Bowser over Sigma with 70%
Ocelot over Wily with 53%
Sephiroth over Vergil with 76%
Liquid over Lavos with 64%

---
Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:08:54 AM | Message Detail
Sir Bormun Wesker 610,25%

You know, I've seen Bormun around, and he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I doubt this was what he predicted. :p
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:24:05 AM | Message Detail
Mushroom Division
Bowser 68.46%
Revolver Ocelot 50.38%

Jenova Division
Sephiroth 75.38%
Liquid Snake 59.37%
---
Jon Thomson - 7/7, today: Liquid Snake, tomorrow: Kefka
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:24:07 AM | Message Detail
I should have learned by now to rely on numbers and not intuition...
---
SC2K4 Oracle Ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS in the Spring Contest.
From: smelly crap | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:32:43 AM | Message Detail
I finally made a pick worth over 40 points. :)
---
If you want to make fun of an illiterate person, write it to them.
From: Claude Rena | Posted: 5/11/2005 5:21:27 AM | Message Detail
Luca Blight - 51.95%
M Bison - 54.86%
Ridley - 50.99%

Ganondorf 85.97%
CATS with 50.05%
Dr. Robotnik - 51.92%
Kuja - 57.89%

Round 2:

Bowser - 71.81%
Ocelot - 56.47%
Sephiroth - 74.99%
Liquid - 68.12%
---
Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/11/2005 5:29:33 AM | Message Detail
Mushroom Division
Bowser with 62.31%
Revolver Ocelot with 56.74%

Jenova Division
Sephiroth with 72.11%
Liquid Snake with 69.56%

---
|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 7/7 Next Pick: Liquid
From: alpha door | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:21:27 AM | Message Detail
Mushroom Division
Bowser - 71.85%
Revolver Ocelot - 52.11%

Jenova Division
Sephiroth - 77.69%
Liquid Snake - 63.77%
---
Official Chrono Trigger Fan
Currently Playing: Spc2k5
From: Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted: 5/11/2005 10:16:44 AM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Wesker with 60.99


Safety picks:
Bowser with 69
Revolver Ocelot with 55

Jenova Division
Sephiroth with 75
Liquid Snake with 66
---
Nel mezzo del cammin di nostra vita - mi ritrovai per una selva oscura - che la diritta via era smarrita
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/11/2005 11:01:59 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, don't remember predicting Liquid Snake to be THAT low... oops.
---
Jon Thomson - 8/8, today: Kefka, tomorrow: Wesker
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: dethwing | Posted: 5/11/2005 11:11:48 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 71.73
Revolver Ocelot 50.43

Sephiroth 75.33
Liquid Snake 69.32
---
"Eww! What is up with that shirt? Where's the hot looking guy again?" - a girl after seeing his[Vercetti's] pic.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/11/2005 1:51:18 PM | Message Detail
Tag for now... need to stop doing so horrible =(

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Garsha | Posted: 5/11/2005 1:55:40 PM | Message Detail
Bowser with 65.62%
Revolver Ocelot with 51.58%

Sephiroth with 79.57%
Liquid Snake with 63.35%
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546&topic=20526094
From: Fiop | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:00:15 PM | Message Detail
*glares at Ultros and Tenpenny for ruining my ranking*

Bowser with 58.3%
Ocelot with 51.1%
Sephiroth with 77.7%
Liquid Snake with 55.67%
---
"Tosit at home, read one's favorite paper, and scoff at the men who dothings is easy, but markedly ineffective" --Theodore Roosevelt
From: Alanna82 | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:04:33 PM | Message Detail
Bowser vs Sigma- Bowser with 70.00%
Revolver Ocelot vs Dr. Wily- Wily with 50.05% (upset!)

Jenova Division
Sephiroth vs Vergil- Sephy with 70.00%
Lavos vs Liquid Snake- Liquid Snake with 65.55%
---
Happiliy married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. The sweetest guy around. ^_^
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:07:36 PM | Message Detail
Give me Wesker with 61.82%.
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
Team Six!
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:10:19 PM | Message Detail
Ha! What a Three-Pack.

3) kawaiifan - 361.48
4) Dilated Chemist - 361.40
5) Ngamer64 - 361.21


Ngamer,His Arch-Rival, and The Girl He's Never Beaten, all packed togetherwithin a half-point. Too bad I broke us up with my crappy Kefka pick...

(Oh, and yes, I realize I've got to come up with a better title for kawaii.)

---
the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: Alanna82 | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:12:00 PM | Message Detail
I'm doing bad this year. I didnt realize I had Kefka that high. Oops. I should have double checked that last night...
---
Happiliy married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. The sweetest guy around. ^_^
From: Camden | Posted: 5/11/2005 2:57:49 PM | Message Detail
Change: Wesker with 60%.
^^^^
Don't worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
SpC2K5 - Points: 8/8 - Current: Kefka over Mithos
From: Garsha | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:00:30 PM | Message Detail
Since when did pick Liquid to win with only 61%. I swear it was 70%+...
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546&topic=20526094
From: meche313 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:08:58 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Wesker with 56.12%
---
Anyone thinking Master Hand can win this is just clinically insane.--Heroic Mario
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:22:14 PM | Message Detail
Repost:

Kefka 72.01%
Wesker 59.51% <-- This one is changed
M. Bison 59.11%
Ridley 61.21%
Ganondorf 87.25%
Ansem 61.21%
Dr. Robotnik 53.41%
Kuja 55.55%

I'm in second, but I'll drop right down to about 20th with a bad pick of Kefka. I underestimated the ToS love on GameFAQs...

These are the new picks:

Bowser with 68.11%
Dr. Wily with 50.89% Yes, I'm going with Dr. Wily just like in my bracket.
Sephiroth with 72.32%
Liquid Snake with 59.92%
---
Weird Kirby Dude ~Board Hunter~ Board 584508
Tanner. The only guy Gordon can call a loser and not sound like a hypocrite. - Slowflake
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:29:31 PM | Message Detail
Since when did pick Liquid to win with only 61%. I swear it was 70%+...

From: Garsha | Posted: 4/15/2005 4:14:43 PM | Message Detail
Mushroom Division
Bowser with 81.94%
Sigma with 55.28%
Revolver Ocelot with 63.51%
Dr. Wily with 62.18%

Jenova Division
Sephiroth with 81.41%
Vergil with 60.63%
Lavos with 60.00%
Liquid Snake with 61.12%

Post #63 of the first topic ;)
And I checked everything you didn't change it.
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/11/2005 3:40:34 PM | Message Detail
Ouch.

---
Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Darkash | Posted: 5/11/2005 4:37:28 PM | Message Detail
*Sigh* I knew it. Every time I change a pick, it burns me. Still, looks like a decent recovery for today.

Wesker: 62.13%
Something tells me Wesker will do a slight bit better then expected.
---
Winner of The GOLD Triforce in scientist pg's riddle contest!
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/11/2005 5:19:22 PM | Message Detail
CHANGES
Wesker with 62.30%
M. Bison with 61.13%
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: Salient | Posted: 5/11/2005 5:51:59 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Wesker with 65.56%
---
~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
http://www.geocities.com/bernardalgain/Lufia2/Lufia2_Wacky/Salient.png
From: cyko | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:12:01 PM | Message Detail
man, i should have lowered my Kefka pick a whole lot more. -_-

re-posting old picks:


Albert Wesker with 64.93%
M.Bison with 65.28%
Diablo with 59.25%

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: cyko | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:12:23 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE:

Wesker with 62.47%

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:19:27 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE - Wesker with 61.95%
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:20:28 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE: Wesker with 59.95%

---
Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/11/2005 6:24:32 PM | Message Detail
Reposting with a CHANGE for Wesker/Luca

Wesker with 60.92% - CHANGE
M. Bison with 60.11%
Ridley with 50.02%

Ganondorf with 78.23%
Ansem with 70.11%
Robotnik with 53.39%
Kuja with 56.29%
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kefka vs. Mithos - Bracket: Kefka - Vote: Mithos (8/8)
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