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SC2k5 - Oracle Challenge - Round 4
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 12:42:34 AM | Message Detail
Match #52 Results:
Kirby 47.88%
Bowser 52.12%

Today's match was closer than most expected, as Kirby kept things close and was actually taking more than 50% of the vote for a while during the afternoon. In the end, Kirby did a good job of living up to his 1 seed, as he showed himself to be the second strongest character in his division by a pretty close margin. Today's consensus was Bowser with 58.25% and the average score was 43.21. There were 70 picks for Bowser and 4 for Kirby.

Best Five Picks:
1) Draco1214 - Bowser 53.27% (+48.85)
2) Starion - Bowser 53.50% (+48.62)
3) Nai - Bowser 50.73% (+48.61)
4) SuperSmash Master - Bowser 53.62% (+48.50)
5) KingBartz - Bowser 53.67% (+48.45)

All of today's top picks scored under 49 points. They were also the five lowest predictions for Bowser. Draco1214 had the best prediction. Starion was second and Nai was third, as the only Bowser predictor who undershot (with 50.73%). SuperSmash Master was fourth and KingBartz was fifth.

Complete match ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=52

Current Leaderboard:
1) creativename - 2281.34
2) Xuxon - 2279.82
3) Master Moltar - 2277.55
4) StopPokingMe - 2276.36
5) Haste2 - 2274.37

The top of the standings narrowed even more as the top 4 are now all within 5 points of each other, and the top 5 all within 7 points. Creativename keeps the lead, followed by Xuxon 1.52 points behind. Master Moltar moved up to 3rd today, switching places with StopPokingMe, who dropped down to fourth. Haste2 climbs two spots to make it back on the leaderboard, taking a 0.2 point lead over Heroic Viktor.

Full standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=total&match=52

Dream Division Leaderboard (Final):
1) Nai - 317.36
2) Starion - 316.66
3) ECW RVD420 - 312.68
4) Ringworm - 312.51
5) Seginustemple - 309.45

Nai is the Dream Division champion. Nai and Starion both used top 5 predictions today to climb the division leaderboard (from 3rd and 5th, respectively) - Starion's prediction was 0.01 better today, but that wasn't enough to make up the gap. ECS RVD420 finishes in third, closely followed by Ringworm and Seginustemple.

Complete division standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/divisions.php?division=29

Special Feature - Former Champion Watch
5) Haste2 - 2274.37 (-6.97)
11) kawaiifan - 2262.06 (-19.28)
13) King Morgoth - 2260.53 (-20.81)
45) Dilated Chemist - 2176.49 (-104.85)

Haste2 looks to have the best chance of repeating as champion - he's been doing very well all season and has been on and off the leaderboard quite a bit. He's now seven points behind creativename. Next is kawaiifan, who started off slowly, but was the top scorer in the second round, which brought her up to 11th in the standings. King Morgoth had a pretty poor start to the contest but has been steadily gaining and is now in 13th place, just a couple points below kawaiifan (a position he became familiar with in SC2k4). Both he and kawaiifan are within striking distance of the leaderboard. Finally, Dilated Chemist made several leaderboard appearances earlier this contest, but his scores have suffered significantly since he left for military training. The biggest blow came when he missed a match due to leaving us a round 2 prediction that involved Magus winning, demonstrating how important it is to be able to adjust your picks as the contest develops.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Starion | Posted: 9/9/2005 12:50:15 AM | Message Detail
Arrggh! I shouldn't have changed my original Bowser pick of 52.??.
From: Nai | Posted: 9/9/2005 5:46:46 AM | Message Detail
Great! I thought I had come second in the Dream Division, but I made wrong calculations, evidently =P

Well... I started predicting at Kirby's first match and I won his division =D I'm pretty happy of this result ;)
---
Currently playing: Super Mario 64 DS [DS]
From: ps2rulezzz | Posted: 9/9/2005 8:12:09 AM | Message Detail
Squall with 51.47%
Sonic with 56.10%
---
190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/9/2005 9:36:43 AM | Message Detail
Vincent with 50.76%
Sonic with 55.71%
Megaman with 60.11%
---
To settle my score with you, I came dancing all the way up from the fires of hell.
From: Dranze | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:47:55 AM | Message Detail
Vincent with 51.90%
Sonic with 55.50%
Mega Man with 57.3%
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:43:26 AM | Message Detail
*grumbles*
I see the result this morning, think Crono will lose a few points and help me but damn, nothing happening....
Another match that is going to hurt...
---
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 12:52:54 PM | Message Detail
On the contrary, you're in great shape (and I would have said so an hour ago, too).
---
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: SuperSmash Master | Posted: 9/9/2005 2:06:09 PM | Message Detail
Bowser - 50.00%
---
"This Pina Colada is REALLY GOOD!" - Decline of Video Gaming
Gamefaqs: Where Vivi, Frog, Kirby, and Shadow can lose to girls.
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 9/9/2005 2:09:09 PM | Message Detail
Squall with 51.3%
---
Huh-CHA!
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 9/9/2005 2:20:27 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 50%
---
Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 9/9/2005 2:25:41 PM | Message Detail
alright alright, fifth in dream division, feels good to have my name there, never to be changed.

Anyway I don't like Squall vs. Vincent at all. Of course I said that about Knuckles vs. Vincent and got first place, but ima too 'fraid, CHANGE:

Squall with 51.67%
---
"If it bleeds we can kill it" - My governer, Arnold S.
From: RPGLord95 | Posted: 9/9/2005 3:44:43 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake over Bowser with 53.37%
---
FFXI: Asura: Rpglord 75Drk/64Mnk
SC2K5 74/80 Current Pick: Crono > MC
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/9/2005 3:50:13 PM | Message Detail
Now for some round 4 pics...

Mario with 51.07%
Solid Snake with 55.19%
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/9/2005 3:55:25 PM | Message Detail
On the contrary, you're in great shape (and I would have said so an hour ago, too).

I had to try some reverse jinxing...>_>
---
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: PeaceOut64 | Posted: 9/9/2005 4:50:39 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 50.8%
---
My goal since I joined the Leafs has always been to have on the ice a team as good as our fans. We have never quite gotten there. Some day we will. - Ken Dryden
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 9/9/2005 4:52:35 PM | Message Detail
Snake with 53.87%

another top ten with 53.87 yesterday. yeah it's magic.
---
"If it bleeds we can kill it" - My governer, Arnold S.
From: Camden | Posted: 9/9/2005 5:57:56 PM | Message Detail
Is Valentine the favorite now? Hmm...

Squall with 51.99%
---
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't. -Douglas Adams
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/9/2005 6:11:00 PM | Message Detail
Squall with 51.68%
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 9/9/2005 6:35:54 PM | Message Detail
Squall with 50%

Still undecided...
---
Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:00:51 PM | Message Detail
Vincent Valentine - 50.00%
---
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 5: "Digital Watch" (560 points)
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:31:27 PM | Message Detail
Crono barely outperforming Aeris? Ugh, this doesn't look promising for his future matches.

Anywho...I guess I should play things a bit safer for tomorrow's match, but I still can't see Squall having that much trouble, especially since the match picture should end up favoring him.

Change:

Squall Leonhart with 55.55%
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:33:45 PM | Message Detail
Mario with 54.78%

Solid Snake with 55.12%



---
Beetle: Yeah, see, we're like ****ing dung beetles. We roll around in poo all day, **** knows what for.
Conker: Oh, really, that's... interesting...
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:47:45 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Vincent with 50%
---
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
MC vs. Crono - Bracket: Crono - Vote: MC (72/80)
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:49:17 PM | Message Detail
Uhh..

Squall Leonhart with 50.85%
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
I did pretty good in the guru challenge but yoblazer did slightly better.
From: Salient | Posted: 9/9/2005 7:55:27 PM | Message Detail
Vincent - 51.00%
Sonic - 53.00%
Mega Man - 59.00%
---
~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
http://www.geocities.com/bernardalgain/Lufia2/Lufia2_Wacky/Salient.png
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/9/2005 8:18:54 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE:

Vincent with 50.7%
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Camden | Posted: 9/9/2005 8:54:32 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 50%

I haven't trimmed the hedges yet this contest, and there's no better place to start, seemingly.
---
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't. -Douglas Adams
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/9/2005 9:02:22 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 50.05%
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/9/2005 9:17:27 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE:

Squall Leonhart with 51.52%

New prediction:

Solid Snake with 50.55%
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Starion | Posted: 9/9/2005 9:48:50 PM | Message Detail
3rd Round
----------------
Squall with 53.50%
Sonic with 53.00%
Mega Man with 57.16%

4th Round
-----------------
Samus with 53.92%
Solid Snake with 54.00%
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:02:41 PM | Message Detail
Hardest pick EVER. But in the end... you just don't bet against swords.

Squall wi-

Wait, what am I thinking? You don't bet against FF7!

Vincent 50.28%

---
the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:03:36 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake over Bowser with 56.55%
---
Return of SF1: YOU DON'T HAVE A CASE!
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:10:14 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 53%.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:22:15 PM | Message Detail
New picks:

Mario with 50.50%
Solid Snake with 53.50%
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:22:58 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE
Vincent Valentine with 54.00%

Because, honestly, round numbers are cool, and I don't feel like missing the party at the top so guys, I'm coming!!!
---
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:36:05 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 51.5%
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:48:46 PM | Message Detail
Vincent with 53.2%
Sonic with 54.2%
Mega Man with 61.2%

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/9/2005 10:53:50 PM | Message Detail
Final change for this match.

Squall Leonhart with 53.15%
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:07:58 PM | Message Detail
...Wait a second, I just remembered why I have zero faith in Vincent. >_<

Change:

Squall Leonhart with 55.25%
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Salient | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:30:44 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Squall with 53.00%
---
~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
http://www.geocities.com/bernardalgain/Lufia2/Lufia2_Wacky/Salient.png
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:31:59 PM | Message Detail
I would have changed to Squall if I had the time. Let's see if that would have been good or bad.
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:33:11 PM | Message Detail
Oh, it's 15 minutes now? I can change if I want to.

...but should I or shouldn't I?

*Goes off to flip a coin*

It was heads. I stay. Hmm.
---
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:33:53 PM | Message Detail
New Pick!

Snake with 54.62%
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Camden | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:37:52 PM | Message Detail
Valentine with 51.99%
---
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't. -Douglas Adams
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:42:56 PM | Message Detail
I have no faith whatsoever in either of these guys.

Vincent with 51.25%
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:43:33 PM | Message Detail
.Hmm, the match pic is pretty bad (imo), but you can see Vincent even less than Squall, Vincent has the more aggressive pose, but Squall has the gunblade... but I think this match pic won't influence anything, thus I won't change my pick.

New:
Solid Snake with 56.34%
---
SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23266034
From: Xuxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:44:41 PM | Message Detail
This one's driving me crazy. I'm at risk to be booted off the top after one day no matter who I pick. Not only that, but I could see either of them get over 55 percent. Here goes...

Vincent with 50%
---
"Let's drop this Xbox statue on Naomi's head! Oof! This thing's big! It'll take over 3 years for it to start selling!" ~ Jaguar, Sega Fantasy VI
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/9/2005 11:49:40 PM | Message Detail
This is going to be a good one... the predictions are almost perfectly split. 34 for Squall, 38 for Vincent. The two sides are almost equally confident: the average Squall prediction is 52.11, the average Vincent prediction is 52.35. whoever wins, there's going to be a shakeup.

Go Vincent!
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/10/2005 12:30:49 AM | Message Detail
Match #53 Results:
Master Chief 38.71%
Crono 61.29%

Master Chief performed better than expected against Crono, not doing much worse than he did against Aeris two years ago. All of the predictions were for Crono and the consensus was Crono with 65.04%. The average score was 45.40.

Best Five Picks:
1) Sephirot1 Returns - Crono 61.24% (+49.95)
2) Who Cares? - Crono 61.00% (+49.71)
3) Dilated Chemist - Crono 62.00% (+49.29)
4) Duffer11 - Crono 62.25% (+49.04)
5) Menji76 - Crono 62.42% (+48.87)

Sephirot1 Returns returns for his second top pick in three days (and second top 5 of the contest). Today he had a very strong 49.95 point pick. Second was Who Cares? with his sixth top 5, followed by Dilated Chemist whose prophetic foresight allowed him to make a great prediction one month in advance. This is the second top 5 of the contest for Dilated Chemist. Duffer takes fourth for his fourth top 5, and Menji gets his sixth top 5.

Complete match ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=53

Current Leaderboard:
1) Xuxon - 2327.14
2) creativename - 2327.13
3) StopPokingMe - 2324.02
4) Master Moltar - 2322.85
5) Haste2 - 2318.66

We have a new leader! Since day 4, no one other than creativename and Heroic Viktor has held the lead as those two have traded it several times. Today Xuxon overtakes creativename with a carefully orchestrated prediction that put him 0.01 points ahead. StopPokingMe also switches places with Master Moltar again, retaking third place. Haste2 remains in fifth.

Full standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=total&match=53

Flood Division Leaderboard (Final):
1) cyko - 335.32
2) transience - 333.70
3) Rufus Shinra 18 - 332.62
4) Kaxon - 331.85
5) TenkoStar17 - 331.43

Cyko is able to hold on to his lead in the Flood division and win the title. Although Master Chief gave the other competitors room to catch up to cyko, no one high in the standings made a good enough prediction to overtake him. Second place was transience, who moved up from third to second with the final match. Rufus Shinra 18 took third, followed by Kaxon who remained in fourth, and TenkoStar, who dropped from 2nd down to 5th.

Complete division standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/divisions.php?division=30
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
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