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SC2k8 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 2
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 10/20/2008 3:34:58 AM | Message Detail
damn, I thought I could possibly score over 49 points today, but Link is raising way too fast
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Today's prediction: Link 49.41% - Zack Fur 25.61% - Zidane 13.44% - Waaaahrio 11.54%
Status: Good
From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/20/2008 5:37:43 AM | Message Detail
My highest point during the night was 49.77 when Link was at 50.16

That made be happy :D
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Justin's CB Points: 106 | Points After this Round: 110
Today: Link > Zack | Tomorrow: Marth > Altair
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/20/2008 10:19:27 AM | Message Detail
Well, looks like all my gains are getting wiped out today. When I was at the airport and started thinking about the match, I realized Link should get higher than 50%, but it was too late to change...
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/20/2008 1:01:00 PM | Message Detail
damn, I thought I could possibly score over 49 points today, but Link is raising way too fast

Link has already gone above my prediction of 51.82%. My prediction is currently at 49.02 and dropping fast, with Zack and Zidane going down and Link going up.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: creativename | Posted: 10/20/2008 1:27:06 PM | Message Detail
I want to kill creative right now, damnit.

Hahah, well thanks, this makes a man feel good :)

Why though? Because I'm in the lead? The chances of me finishing in the top 5 are still maybe somewhat over 50%.

Also I'd say anyone in the top 22 could still be champion without needing a miracle, and the top 15 are definitely still in contention for #1.
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From: creativename | Posted: 10/20/2008 1:28:25 PM | Message Detail
Eventual champions have probably come from way down around this time of the contest (middle of the contest) to eventually win. Maybe somebody could try to look this up.
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From: neonreaper | Posted: 10/20/2008 1:29:25 PM | Message Detail
Team Elderly Excellence grab a narrow win (their 3rd of the contest)

sweeet
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cool beans
From: Eternal_Debate | Posted: 10/20/2008 2:44:52 PM | Message Detail
Even I'm looking at about a 48 point score today - that's surprising as I didn't really think I made a great prediction, as usual.
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~ Ringworm ~
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/20/2008 3:53:13 PM | Message Detail
So nicely asked creative =P

What winners looked like after Round 1
(I'll skip SC2k3 for obvious reasons)
SpC2k4 - King Morgoth - 4th (-14.54)
SC2k4 - kawaiifan - 4th (-10.78)
SpC2k5 - Dilated Chemist - 1st (+6.79)
SC2k5 - Xuxon - 4th (-20.85)
SpC2k6 - Xuxon - 8th (-12.43)
SC2k6 - cyko - 3rd (-3.36)
SC2k7 - The n00b Avenger - 1st (+6.12)

Biggest comebacks to the leaderboard
SpC2k4 - kawaiifan - 8th (-23.86) to 3rd (-22.67)
SC2k4 - The n00b Avenger - 22nd (-36.85) to 5th (-17.05)
SpC2k5* - Rufus Shinra 18 - 14th (-26.12) to 4th (-28.66)
SC2k5 - StopPokingMe - 13th (-38.44) to 3rd (-5.80)
SpC2k6* - GoldSlime35 - 49th (-39.08) to 5th (-7.21)
SC2k6 - ActJef1077 - 24th (-27.37) to 5th (-14.17)
SC2k7 - Salient - 14th (-12.76) to 4th (-4.37)

See GoldSlime's run if you want to know what Tearing standings apart really means...
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Explicit Content is shaped like a boot to kick my ass!
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/20/2008 3:54:11 PM | Message Detail
Get ready for a 94th to 1st comeback !!
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/20/2008 4:09:21 PM | Message Detail
creativename | Posted 10/20/2008 2:27:06 PM | message detail
I want to kill creative right now, damnit.

Hahah, well thanks, this makes a man feel good :)

Why though? Because I'm in the lead? The chances of me finishing in the top 5 are still maybe somewhat over 50%.

Also I'd say anyone in the top 22 could still be champion without needing a miracle, and the top 15 are definitely still in contention for #1.


I'd probably put the cutoff line at .30 points per match remaining, but even then I think that's being generous.
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Explicit Content is shaped like a boot to kick my ass!
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: Salient | Posted: 10/20/2008 4:11:34 PM | Message Detail
Of course, it should be noted that most of those numbers mean absolutely nothing in regards to this contest, since we're not using penalties.

Still interesting, though. :)
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From: creativename | Posted: 10/20/2008 4:16:39 PM | Message Detail
So nicely asked creative =P

Well I didn't really mean you had to do it, I figured somebody else might volunteer :) Thanks though, that was a very thorough job, plenty of into there.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/20/2008 7:07:41 PM | Message Detail
I'd like to ask you to retroactively add my prediction for Auron's match to the database. It was posted in my prediction and analysis topic well before the match started, but I forgot to replicate it in your topic. I know it is my fault and no-one else's for not doing that, but I believe that my prediction topic is "official" enough for you to understand that this isn't a case of attempted cheating (the prediction was not posted in just some random topic, but rather in the one where I always post my predictions) and accept the prediction.

Sorry I didn't answer this before... anyway, we can't accept predictions in any other topics, sorry. It would open a big can of worms where we'd have to decide which topics were legitimate and which ones weren't. By only accepting predictions in the Oracle topic things remain fair, although unfortunately not very forgiving for mistakes.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/20/2008 7:27:58 PM | Message Detail
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2008 5:20:00 PM | message detail | #372
Damn it, any chance that you can accept my 50 second late pick?


Sorry, we can't accept predictions after the start of the match for obvious reasons.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Eternal_Debate | Posted: 10/20/2008 8:25:39 PM | Message Detail
There's some quality people in the 48.03 points for the last match. And then there's me. Nice company for once though.
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~ Ringworm ~
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/20/2008 8:31:29 PM | Message Detail
Almost everyone will do like crap today because Duke is putting up percentages that we thought Altair will get.

Despite my crappy prediction, I currently have 45.78 points for it and it should improve over the course of the match as Marth falls and Altair goes up.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: Eternal_Debate | Posted: 10/20/2008 8:36:55 PM | Message Detail
Just had a look at today's prediction from myself. Probably should have done that half an hour ago. I have NO idea what I was thinking when I made those predictions. Looks like another last place today.

Honestly, I think I got confused with what match I was predicting or something - never EVER thought the results would be like that. Better check for other dodgy predictions I made at the same time. Wouldn't surprise me, I made them all in a 2 minute break at work.
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~ Ringworm ~
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/20/2008 10:17:14 PM | Message Detail
Oh what the junk... 4th place in team score, and we STILL lose ground to 31 and the Happyists? We just can't catch a break!

---
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From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 10/20/2008 10:43:03 PM | Message Detail
Biggest comebacks to the leaderboard
SpC2k4 - kawaiifan - 8th (-23.86) to 3rd (-22.67)
SC2k4 - The n00b Avenger - 22nd (-36.85) to 5th (-17.05)
SpC2k5* - Rufus Shinra 18 - 14th (-26.12) to 4th (-28.66)
SC2k5 - StopPokingMe - 13th (-38.44) to 3rd (-5.80)
SpC2k6* - GoldSlime35 - 49th (-39.08) to 5th (-7.21)
SC2k6 - ActJef1077 - 24th (-27.37) to 5th (-14.17)
SC2k7 - Salient - 14th (-12.76) to 4th (-4.37)

See GoldSlime's run if you want to know what Tearing standings apart really means...


lol

Was checking for the hell of it. If you go back 2 matches, I went from 59th to 4th in 13 matches which is just ridiculous. It was pretty much because nobody had any idea of what to expect and I got the tough ones right. I gained 23 points on the lead in 2 days (Match 18 and 19)

Too bad my one pick without looking cost me the title. *cries*
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/20/2008 11:05:21 PM | Message Detail
Match # 33 Results
Link 53.34%
Zack Fair 23.90%
Zidane Tribal 12.16%
Wario 10.60%

Round 2! We're already halfway done with the contest... how time flies. As we typically do, we saw Link crushing his enemies, driving them before him, and hearing the lamentations of their women. Zack also advances easily, and getting 24% in any match that includes Link and two other characters is not too shabby.

Consensus:
Link - 50.10%
Wario - 10.76%
Zack Fair - 24.01%
Zidane Tribal - 15.16%

Best Five Picks:
1) DpObliVion - Link 53.00% - Wario 11.00% - Zack 23.00% - Zidane 13.00% (+49.38)
2) Vlado - Link 54.43% - Wario 10.03% - Zack 23.17% - Zidane 12.37% (+49.35)
3) Xeybozn - Link 53.04% - Wario 9.44% - Zack 24.48% - Zidane 13.04% (+49.26)
4) creativename - Link 51.00% - Wario 10.50% - Zack 24.25% - Zidane 14.25% (+48.78)
5) jonthomson - Link 55.00% - Wario 8.00% - Zack 25.00% - Zidane 12.00% (+48.62)

Another strong pick from DPOblivion gives him the top spot today. Vlado follows close behind with 49.35, and Xeybozn is in third with 49.26, making up the top 3 cluster. The rest of the pack trails farther behind, but current leader creativename still has a great day in 4th and jonthomson takes fifth for his second top 5 of the season.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=match&match=33

Current Leaderboard:
1) creativename - 1553.49
2) kawaiifan - 1552.05
3) Camden - 1550.96
4) PeaceOut64 - 1550.39
5) The n00b Avenger - 1549.19

The top 4 remain the same today and creative pads his lead a little bit, but not much since most of the top competitors scored high. The n00b Avenger manages to boot Kaxon out of the top 5, passing me by 0.03 points just one day after I made it back into 5th.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=total&match=33

Top Team Scores:
1) Happy Happyists - 97.11 (Camden: +48.53 / meche313: +48.58)
2) 31 - 96.91 (PeaceOut64: +48.43 / The n00b Avenger: +48.48)
3) Dérision - 96.82 (jonthomson: +48.62 / andylt: +48.20)
4) Predestined Divination - 96.78 (creativename: +48.78 / Ngamer64: +48.00)
5) Palace of Wisdom - 96.61 (Master Moltar: +48.28 / DSRage: +48.33)

The Happyists are not letting up; after taking the lead yesterday, the score the top pick today. But Team 31 isn't giving up either, and they grab the #2 score. Team Dérision (jonthomson and andy) grab their first team top 5 of the contest. They're followed by two other formidable teams, Team Predestined Divination (currently #5 in the standings and Team Palace of Wisdom (now #6) in this high-powered top 5.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teammatch&match=33

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 3099.97
2) Team 31 (PeaceOut64 / The n00b Avenger) - 3099.58
3) Team Kirby (kawaiifan / Luster Soldier) - 3098.33
4) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 3093.81
5) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3091.84

No changes in the top 5 today. Team Palace of Wisdom overtakes Mother Cat is a Landmine for 6th place.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teamtotal&match=33
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/20/2008 11:21:32 PM | Message Detail
Oh what the junk... 4th place in team score, and we STILL lose ground to 31 and the Happyists? We just can't catch a break!

You only gained a small amount of ground on my team, but my team is still 4.5 points ahead of you.

And I might have a hard time going up even higher than 12th, with the next person above me being ahead by slightly over a point. I have managed to do a good job holding off DSRage for the past 3 days and I should hold him off yet again for today.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: DpObliVion | Posted: 10/20/2008 11:44:28 PM | Message Detail
Holy ****, 1st place, whoo!

Also, my 32% for Duke is looking nice, but the rest are pretty well off right now.

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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/20/2008 11:46:24 PM | Message Detail
My Altair and Duke are switched in percentage X_X
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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/21/2008 8:30:08 AM | Message Detail
Team Predestined Divination (currently #5 in the standings)

Dang Kax, can't blame you for the wishful thinking, but let's at least keep it out of the official results writeups, shall we?

---
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/21/2008 10:06:03 AM | Message Detail
Well well well, this ain't pretty....
Someone's going to have to figure out how the hell Duke works in these things....
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/21/2008 5:48:41 PM | Message Detail
We're gonna need a new main topic soon.
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From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/21/2008 6:45:55 PM | Message Detail
Bowser - 28%
Liquid Snake - 28%
Luigi - 28%
Phoenix Wright - 16%

I have no clue how this will turn out, so I had to play it safe. 100% had to.

KAXON WE NEED A NEW TOPIC SO I'LL JUST POST THESE HERE SINCE THE OTHER ONE IS LOCKED AT 500
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/21/2008 6:52:50 PM | Message Detail
NEW TOPIC
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46101835

That one's my fault, sorry folks!
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Explicit Content is shaped like a boot to kick my ass!
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/21/2008 9:37:59 PM | Message Detail
Wow... Right now I have the exact same score as creative...
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Justin's CB Points: 118 (6th) | Points after this round: 120-122
Today: Luigi > Bowser | Tomorrow: Mario > Mega Man X
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/21/2008 9:41:11 PM | Message Detail
Bah, another solid day from both members of PD and yet we still can't pick up any points. Gross stuff.

---
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From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 10:48:08 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Camden | Posted: 10/21/2008 10:49:06 PM | Message Detail
You'll be picking up points on us today, my pick is terrible.
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From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 10:53:06 PM | Message Detail
So, I remember in the first Oracle Challenge discussion topic, Xuxon copy and pasted a post into there. It was a post from transience where he said "who's up for some Oracle Challenge: Obama Edition?". Morgoth apparently showed no interest in being the host of that. I can't blame him, since he's busy running the Oracle site and this year's Oracle Challenge. And I doubt Kaxon would run it either. So I think I'll go ahead and be the host for it.. I actually plan on calling it "Oracle Challenge: Election Edition". I realized that this would be boring if all we did was predict the percentage of votes received by the winner. So I have expanded it to include 3 challenges:

Percentage Prediction Challenge - For each of the major presidential candidates, you need to predict the percentage of votes they receive. Additionally, you must also predict the percentage of votes that all of the third party candidates receive combined.
Electoral College Prediction Challenge - Predict the number of electoral votes that the winner will receive (minimum 270, maximum 538).
Popular Vote Prediction Challenge - Predict the number of votes received by each major candidate, plus the total number of votes cast for all third party candidates combined. This final challenge shall be a true test of your prediction abilities.


Who here would be interested in "Oracle Challenge: Election Edition"?

I plan to have the prediction topic put up one week before the election day. Predictions would need to be submitted no later than 12:00 AM Eastern on November 4th (election day). I have already come up with the formulas I want to use in doing point calculations. In each challenge, you can earn up to 50 points. I shall also post 3 top 5 lists, one for each challenge. Consensus predictions and average scores will also be posted for each challenge.

Point calculations will be done in a spreadsheet. I could easily do point calculations without a script at all, since it's not like I'm working with huge amounts of data. I also have the actual message typed up that I shall post when making the prediction topic. In the prediction topic, I will also give a quick run-down of how the presidential election system works, since not everyone lives in the United States. Also in the prediction topic, will be a short disclaimer saying it's not related to the current Oracle Challenge going on right now. I'm just using the "Oracle Challenge" name for my little contest.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:01:16 PM | Message Detail
Match # 34 Results
Duke Nukem 31.07%
Altair 30.50%
Marth 23.16%
Lucario 15.28%

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K00DCK1l98

Why's Duke kicking so much ass this year? Who knows, maybe the guy got bored of waiting for his game to come out. Maybe he just finally exhausted his supply of bubble gum. Meanwhile, this is the end of the line for two of the contest's biggest bombs, Marth and (especially) Lucario.

Consensus:
Altair - 32.30%
Duke Nukem - 25.46%
Lucario - 16.87%
Marth - 25.37%

Best Five Picks:
1) Tomoyo - Altair 29.41% - Duke Nukem 29.72% - Lucario 14.74% - Marth 26.13% (+48.51)
2) amyvitality66 - Altair 32.00% - Duke Nukem 33.00% - Lucario 14.00% - Marth 21.00% (+48.28)
3) yoblazer33 - Altair 28.00% - Duke Nukem 30.00% - Lucario 16.00% - Marth 26.00% (+48.21)
4) Team Rocket Elite - Altair 31.25% - Duke Nukem 30.75% - Lucario 12.00% - Marth 26.00% (+48.20)
5) Weird Kirby Dude11 - Altair 30.00% - Duke Nukem 28.00% - Lucario 15.00% - Marth 27.00% (+48.07)

Tomoyo gets the top pick today, followed by amyvitality - apparently she was lucky that she posted her change 12 seconds after the match started instead of on time. Yoblazer takes third today and becomes the first person this contest to hit the cycle (a 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th) which is pretty impressive with this many people in the contest. TRE gets his 5th top 5 as well today (a 1st, three 2nds and a 4th), and Weird Kirby Dude claims the #5 spot.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=match&match=34

Current Leaderboard:
1) creativename - 1600.83
2) kawaiifan - 1599.01
3) Camden - 1598.28
4) PeaceOut64 - 1598.06
5) meche313 - 1596.78

Meche!!! After a painful miss on day 31, the second Happyist has worked his way back into the top 5. The top 5 all remain the same today. Former 5th place N00b Avenger and 6th place Kaxon both plummet 3 spots, allowing smitelf and Salient to move back up. With her 2nd place ranking today, kawaiifan also ties King Morgoth for 2nd most days on the leaderboard total, with 134. creativename still leads that category, now with 178.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=total&match=34

Top Team Scores:
1) Carvey Elite imho - 95.99 (Team Rocket Elite: +48.20 / Xcarvengerx: +47.79)
2) True Heroes of the Three Challenges - 95.65 (Tomoyo: +48.51 / Metal Goomba: +47.14)
3) Klonoa Alliance - 95.24 (raytan7585: +46.96 / amyvitality66: +48.28)
4) Happy Happyists - 95.09 (Camden: +47.32 / meche313: +47.77)
5) Froussard - 94.91 (kaonashi1: +46.90 / oneills1: +48.01)

TRE and Xcarvengerx's Team Carvey Elite imho takes the top spot today. Team True Heroes of the Three Challenges also returns to the top 5 today with Tomoyo's top pick. Team Klonoa Alliance is third, with team Happy Happyists and Team Froussard in 4th and 5th.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teammatch&match=34

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 3195.06
2) Team 31 (PeaceOut64 / The n00b Avenger) - 3194.39
3) Team Kirby (kawaiifan / Luster Soldier) - 3192.38
4) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 3188.53
5) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3185.63

Despite the unpredictable match and the shakeup in the individual standings, nothing changes on the team leaderboard today.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teamtotal&match=34
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:06:12 PM | Message Detail
I actually plan on calling it "Oracle Challenge: Election Edition"

I would prefer for you not to use the Oracle Challenge name, since your contest is pretty different (especially the parts that don't involve vote percentage) and it's not being run by me or Morgoth (or solarshadow). Other than that it sounds like a good idea to me.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:08:23 PM | Message Detail
I would prefer for you not to use the Oracle Challenge name, since your contest is pretty different (especially the parts that don't involve vote percentage) and it's not being run by me or Morgoth (or solarshadow). Other than that it sounds like a good idea to me.

If you read farther into my message, you would have realized that I had plans to include a disclaimer in the prediction topic saying this challenge is not related to the current Oracle Challenge going on now.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:09:54 PM | Message Detail
yes kaxon if only you had read farther
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From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:13:25 PM | Message Detail
Honestly the thing I'd most like to predict with something like that would be the winner of each state and the %, so like 50 different oracle contest matches crammed into one day.
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From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:15:58 PM | Message Detail
Maybe I'll wait for Morgoth's opinion first. In the meantime, I'll come up with a different name to use in the event that Morgoth doesn't like the idea of me using the Oracle Challenge name.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:17:56 PM | Message Detail
Honestly the thing I'd most like to predict with something like that would be the winner of each state and the %, so like 50 different oracle contest matches crammed into one day.

I did consider this, but decided that's way too much data for me to work with. If there's enough users supporting idea, I will definitely do it.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:24:39 PM | Message Detail
Maybe I'll wait for Morgoth's opinion first. In the meantime, I'll come up with a different name to use in the event that Morgoth doesn't like the idea of me using the Oracle Challenge name.

How about "The Lusty Challenge"?

Honestly the thing I'd most like to predict with something like that would be the winner of each state and the %, so like 50 different oracle contest matches crammed into one day.

I agree, that would be cool. Not sure how many people would actually take the time to predict all 50 states though. I'd probably half ass it myself because looking up polls for all 50 states would take forever.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:28:14 PM | Message Detail
I'd probably half ass it myself because looking up polls for all 50 states would take forever.

I could study trends (on past elections) for which two major political parties (Democratic and Republican) tend to win the popular vote in each state, but that would take a while.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/21/2008 11:43:49 PM | Message Detail
Not sure how many people would actually take the time to predict all 50 states though.

It would also be a pain to post that many top 5 lists.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: CherryCokes | Posted: 10/22/2008 12:04:45 AM | Message Detail
hey three top 15s in the last four matches.

maybe i'm a second round kinda guy
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[The Dainty Assassins]
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/22/2008 7:59:14 AM | Message Detail
I'll take part in the Lusty Obama Challenge, though I think it's strange that nationwide percentage and nationwide total votes make up 2/3 the challenge, considering they're basically the same thing.

I'd rather have the main challenge be a two-parter: nationwide percentage and electoral votes. And then as a bonus anyone "hardcore" would have the option of guessing who wins each state, and with what percentage.

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From: KingBartz | Posted: 10/22/2008 11:29:04 AM | Message Detail
Arrr...

I'm sucking it up totally this contest.
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/22/2008 12:57:51 PM | Message Detail
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/21/2008 11:53:06 PM | message detail
So, I remember in the first Oracle Challenge discussion topic, Xuxon copy and pasted a post into there. It was a post from transience where he said "who's up for some Oracle Challenge: Obama Edition?". Morgoth apparently showed no interest in being the host of that. I can't blame him, since he's busy running the Oracle site and this year's Oracle Challenge.


It has a lot more to do with not living in the US...

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/22/2008 12:15:58 AM | message detail
Maybe I'll wait for Morgoth's opinion first. In the meantime, I'll come up with a different name to use in the event that Morgoth doesn't like the idea of me using the Oracle Challenge name.


I'm on Kaxon's side on this one, I really don't like the idea of calling it the Oracle Challenge.....
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Explicit Content is shaped like a boot to kick my ass!
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/22/2008 3:00:39 PM | Message Detail
though I think it's strange that nationwide percentage and nationwide total votes make up 2/3 the challenge, considering they're basically the same thing.

With the nationwide percentage, it's a bit easier to get a perfect prediction, but still quite hard as you have to make 3 predictions. I included nationwide total votes as a challenge as a way to test the limits of your predicting abilities. I'm not expecting anyone to correctly predict the total number of votes cast for at least one of the candidates.

I'd rather have the main challenge be a two-parter: nationwide percentage and electoral votes. And then as a bonus anyone "hardcore" would have the option of guessing who wins each state, and with what percentage.

I guess I could split the contest into two parts. There will be a winner for the main challenge and also a winner for the bonus challenge. The winner for the bonus challenge will be determined by who has the highest score from the main challenge and the bonus challenge combined.

It has a lot more to do with not living in the US...

Alright then, so I wouldn't expect you to know how the US presidential election system works.

I'm on Kaxon's side on this one, I really don't like the idea of calling it the Oracle Challenge.....

I already came with a different name to use rather than use the Oracle Challenge name.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/22/2008 6:39:45 PM | Message Detail
OMG! Meche on the leaderboard! It took me six challenges, but I finally make the leaderboard for the first time. It is also in the middle of the contest, which makes it sound even better. Sadly, I'm sure I'll be falling today.

Also, the happyists are on fire. Hooray.
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