The data might agree with you, but it's still not logical. =)

Theproblem with the existing system is that the risk and reward aren'tequal. If your pick is 51%, you're risking two points to gain onepoint. Unless you're quite confident, it makes more sense to justpredict 50%.

You have to pick a winner, so there's no way youcan change your prediction to avoid the penalty for being wrong. You'llpredict the outcome that you think is most likely. On the other hand,you can reduce the impact of the 2x penalty, so that creates an incentive to move your prediction closer to 50%.

Inthe Mario vs Sephiroth match, I think those people actually thought thematch would be close, it wasn't that the scoring system made themchange their predictions.
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