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SC2k5 - Oracle Challenge - TOC Finals
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:14:19 AM | Message Detail
Welcome to the Oracle Challenge, the contest that tests your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!

The Challenge

For each match in the GameFAQs Summer Contest you need to pick a winner and predict the percentage of the vote they will receive. Post your predictions in this topic, one prediction per line.

For the TOC Finals, there are two different scenarios you may want to predict: Link vs Sephiroth and Link vs Mario. Or, if you choose, you can just make one prediction, as long as your predictions are clear. Please use one of the following formats:

If Sephiroth wins: Sephiroth with 51%
If Mario wins: Link with 55.12%

OR

Link over Sephiroth with 60%
Link over Mario with 61.9%

OR

Link with 58.33%

(That last one would apply regardless of who Link's opponent is).

The Scoring

For each match you will earn points based on how close your guess was to the actual outcome. Scoring is cumulative and the winner of the Oracle Challenge will be the person with the most points at the end of the final match. For each match you can earn anywhere between 0 and 50 points. This depends on whether you correctly picked the winner and how close your guess was to the actual percentage. The scoring system works as follows:

Correctly choosing the winner earns you 50-x points.
Incorrectly choosing the winner earns you 45-2x points.
(Where x is the difference between your guess and the character's actual percentage.)

Example:

Your guess: Link with 65%
My guess: CATS with 55%
Actual result: Link 60%, CATS 40%
Your points: 50 - (65-60) = 45 points
My points: 45 - 2*(55-40) = 15 points

Bonus points are awarded for the closest five guesses each match but do not factor into the overall scoring. They are used only as a side ranking. Participants will also be ranked by average score from time to time.

The Rules

It is necessary to have a few rules to keep the challenge running smoothly. They are:

1) A valid entry consists of a clear pick and prediction (i.e. Link with 85.03%). The prediction must be greater than or equal to 50.00%. No alts, please. All predictions should be made with your main account to make things easier on me. If you need to change accounts please let me know.
2) Your prediction does not need to be different from everybody else’s guess. However, intentional and continuous prediction mimicry will not be allowed.
3) All predictions must be made one full hour before the usual start time of that match’s poll (approx. 2:00am EST, 1:00am CST, 11:00pm PST). Predictions submitted after this time will not be counted or may be subject to penalty. No predictions will be accepted after a poll has started, regardless of the start time.
4) You may change your prediction for any match at any time, subject to the rules above. Please indicate clearly that this is a change to a previous entry.
5) You may not delete any post in a prediction topic (if you do, please post immediately after to explain the deletion). This is to prevent abuse of the above rule (and to reduce confusion).
6) You may predict matches in advance if you need to. Please tell me beforehand so we can arrange this.
7) I reserve the right to disqualify a pick for any justifiable reason.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: transience | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:15:29 AM | Message Detail
Link with 55.55%.
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Jman_gamerX8:Link::me:Jay Solano.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:16:50 AM | Message Detail
ORACLE WEBSITE
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/

There is an error in the previous post - predictions are due 15 minutes before the start of the poll, at 11:45pm Gamefaqs time.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: creativename | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:25:13 AM | Message Detail
Link with 58%
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:26:30 AM | Message Detail
Link with 55
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- - -
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:27:42 AM | Message Detail
Link with 54.61%
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Camden | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:29:22 AM | Message Detail
*adds one to Link's percentage over Cloud, and then rounds up to his usual .99 prediction

Link with 53.99%
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Dallas Cowboys, 1-1
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:31:02 AM | Message Detail
Link with 60.00%
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''If I were the rain that binds together the earth and sky, who in all eternity will never mingle, would I be able to bind the hearts of people together?''
From: Xuxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:39:38 AM | Message Detail
Link with 56.80%
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"Let's drop this Xbox statue on Naomi's head! Oof! This thing's big! It'll take over 3 years for it to start selling!" ~ Jaguar, Sega Fantasy VI
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:54:58 AM | Message Detail
Tournament of Champions? I feel like I'm running a marathon and they decided to add another mile...

Match #64 Results:
Link 52.44%
Cloud Strife 47.56%

Link has proven himself to be the champion among champions, three-time winner of the Gamefaqs character battles. While technically there is one more round, we all know that this was the true championship match. Link won by a slightly larger margin than he did last year, and it remains to be seen whether Advent Children had an effect on Cloud's popularity. The predictions were amazingly one-sided considering that Cloud has beaten Link in the past: 54 for Link vs only 3 for Cloud. The consensus was Link with 52.79% and the average score was 47.98.

Best Five Picks:
1) Aprosenf - Link 52.41% (+49.97)
2) meche313 - Link 52.40% (+49.96)
3) Draco1214 - Link 52.54% (+49.90)
4) Paratroopa1 - Link 52.28% (+49.84)
5) CaptainFlufflez - Link 52.73% (+49.71)

The top two predictions were quite close today - Aprosenf beat out meche313 by .01 points to score the top prediction. This is the fifth top 5 for Aprosenf and the fourth for meche. Draco1214 gets third for his fifth top 5, completing the cycle (one each of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th). Paratroopa1 gets fourth for his second top 5, and CaptainFlufflez is fifth for his 8th top 5.

Complete match ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=64

Current Leaderboard:
1) Xuxon - 2839.94
2) Master Moltar - 2836.71
3) StopPokingMe - 2830.35
4) Haste2 - 2828.20
5) Heroic Viktor - 2826.16

No change on the leaderboard today, with a fairly predictable match. With only two remaining matches that both look relatively predictable, it's going to be hard for anyone other than Master Moltar to make a bid for the lead. Moltar, however, is still well within striking distance of Xuxon's lead at the moment.

Full standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=total&match=64

Second Half Leaderboard:
1) kawaiifan - 1474.57
2) Garsha - 1471.33
3) Yesmar - 1467.97
4) StopPokingMe - 1467.69
5) yoblazer33 - 1466.14

Today Yesmar passes StopPokingMe to take third place in the second half leaderboard. Kawaiifan still leads in the second half, at the point where the length of the second half equals the length of the first half. (Due to the TOC, the second "half" has two more matches than the first.)

Full second half standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/divisions.php?round=part2

Final Phase Leaderboard:
1) Dilated Chemist - 752.08
2) Ngamer64 - 747.90
3) yoblazer33 - 747.26
4) Camden - 744.36
5) Duffer11 - 743.64

There are no changes at all on the final phase leaderboard today. Dilated Chemist expands his lead slightly to over four points. It's too bad that he didn't leave a prediction for Squall vs Knuckles, as his average score would place him in the top 20.

Full second half standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/divisions.php?round=part3
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:55:41 AM | Message Detail
kawaiifan's predictions:

Round 8
Link over Sephiroth with 55%
Link over Mario with 57%
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:18:11 AM | Message Detail
.Safety:
Link with 54.54%
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SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23266034
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:24:54 AM | Message Detail
.Oh and YAY, Top 10! :-)
Even though it looks like I'll drop out again with my low Sephy prediction...
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SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=23266034
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:34:32 AM | Message Detail
Ooh, I got a top 5 prediction? Nice.

ToC Finals:

Link over Sephiroth with 56.31%
Link over Mario with 60.32%
From: MaggotOfEvil | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:37:56 AM | Message Detail
Link with 58%
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makeyourchance: Of course, you could also say, "LOOK AT ME I'M A FLYING ANUS", but that's beside the point.
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 9/21/2005 2:21:27 AM | Message Detail
Link with 57.77%

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Proud supporter of Samus and Megaman in the S2K5C!
From: Starion | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:40:51 AM | Message Detail
Link with 58.00%
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/21/2005 4:34:27 AM | Message Detail
Link over Sephiroth with 54.64%
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Ringworm | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:17:18 AM | Message Detail
Seph with 50.65%

What? :)
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~ Ringworm ~
Congrats to Jman_gamerX8 for kicking my butt in the guru contest!
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:33:14 AM | Message Detail
Link with 53.70%
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Vote for Mario, this year's contest champion!
This line reserved for winner of the 2k5 guru contest.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:42:26 AM | Message Detail
Safety:
Link over Sephiroth- 58%
Link over Mario - 61%

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Nai | Posted: 9/21/2005 6:11:04 AM | Message Detail
Link over Sephiroth with 57.73%
Link over Mario with 66.99%
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Currently playing: Super Mario 64 DS [DS]
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 9/21/2005 6:42:26 AM | Message Detail
Link with 57.8%
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Huh-CHA!
From: Heroic Luc | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:02:23 AM | Message Detail
Link with 56.00%

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I'm trying to save the world.... really I am....
Alanna82 at work
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:12:54 AM | Message Detail
Link with 55.00%
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Congratulations to Jman, the Summer Contest 2005 Guru Champion.
From: and now I dance | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:40:21 AM | Message Detail
ToC final:

Link 58.90%
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*Dances, trips and falls* XP
From: Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:46:21 AM | Message Detail
Link with 55.01 %
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Proud supporter of SOLID SNAKE for the SC2K5
From: KingBartz | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:46:34 AM | Message Detail
Link - 60.83%
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My Summer Contest Score:
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87
From: OmegaRagnarok | Posted: 9/21/2005 8:56:31 AM | Message Detail
Link - 57.87%
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Holy crap, I was banned! oh well. Life goes on.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/21/2005 10:20:14 AM | Message Detail
Bump me up a point to

Link with 55.61%
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Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 9/21/2005 11:49:16 AM | Message Detail
Link with 55.55%
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Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: ECW RVD420 | Posted: 9/21/2005 11:58:08 AM | Message Detail
Link - 53.14%
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The Whole F'n Show
From: Garsha | Posted: 9/21/2005 12:02:08 PM | Message Detail
Link over Sephiroth with 57.75%
Link over Mario with 60.01%
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I have been utterly owned by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru Contest. Him > Me. Him > You.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/21/2005 1:11:26 PM | Message Detail
Link with 56%
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RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Seph vs. Mario - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (132/200)
From: ps2rulezzz | Posted: 9/21/2005 2:19:38 PM | Message Detail
Link with 56.57%
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190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:16:46 PM | Message Detail
link with 58.27%
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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 149/160 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:18:50 PM | Message Detail
Link with 60%.
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SC2K5 Guru Contest: Where Jman_gamerX8 kicked my ass.
From: Menji76 | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:47:03 PM | Message Detail
Eh... I actually thought Mario would win....


Link over Sephy.... 56.54%

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#1 Gamefaqs Duke fan
*After Lying to his Parents* I'm going straight to hell ~Carlton
From: PeaceOut64 | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:47:55 PM | Message Detail
Link with 54.8%
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My goal since I joined the Leafs has always been to have on the ice a team as good as our fans. We have never quite gotten there. Some day we will. - Ken Dryden
From: Garsha | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:50:35 PM | Message Detail
Change: Link with 56.65%
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I have been utterly owned by Jman_gamerX8 in the Guru Contest. Him > Me. Him > You.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:50:38 PM | Message Detail
Link over Sephiroth with 55.86%
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Summer Contest 2005 - 124 points
Nominate Sub-Zero and The Prince of Persia for SC2k6
From: Hylian Zero | Posted: 9/21/2005 3:57:40 PM | Message Detail
Link with 57.28
---
#1 Titans fan
From: Camden | Posted: 9/21/2005 4:39:42 PM | Message Detail
Link with 54.99%
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Dallas Cowboys, 1-1
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:04:31 PM | Message Detail
Link with 55.55%
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Champions of Time and Space: The Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project
http://crolapras.tripod.com/ffproj.html
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:09:15 PM | Message Detail
Link - 54.45%
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 121/160
Today's Prediction -- Samus Aran vs. Crono
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:19:53 PM | Message Detail
Link with 55.67%
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Crushed by Jman_gamerX8 as badly as Link beat Cloud.
From: Duffer11 | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:46:19 PM | Message Detail
Link with 54.75%
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A Duffer is Forever.
Survivor Kingdom #1 Champion: 7/21 (9 Total Survivor Wins)
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 9/21/2005 5:47:01 PM | Message Detail
Link with 57.45%

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BLAAHAHEHAHRHAJHEKLAKHHEWUHG!!!!!~!!1?? -Tombs
Benito Mussolini has saved my couple. -Mel Gibson
From: Darkash | Posted: 9/21/2005 6:30:15 PM | Message Detail
Link with 50.99%

I'm calling it right here, this pick is going to be close. Spine creepingly close. I can feel it. Of course, that's what I thought about my first two ToC picks, and look how they turned out.
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1st place in scientist pg's TLoZ MM riddle contest!
12th in the SpC2k4!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/21/2005 6:33:01 PM | Message Detail
Link with 56.50%
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Congrats to Jman_gamerX8, who pwned all the Gurus in SC2k5!
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