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SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Round 5 - FINAL MATCH ONLY - Zelda vs FF/SMB
From: LusterSoldier | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:11:47 PM | Message Detail
I ended up getting 90th place for my first Oracle Challenge. I'm at the halfway point on the list considering there are 180 people that participated.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:12:18 PM | Message Detail
Further updates are moving it closer ot my prediction! A top five on the final day would be nice. =D

And I'll vote for the discussion topic. This is fun. And trust me, any random stat you can pull up, I'll look at it, and enjoy it, and care about it. I have more interest than anyone in random useless stats.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:13:03 PM | Message Detail
If only I picked Zelda to win...oh wow.
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Moltar Status: Currently the property of the true Master, Z1mZum
Final July '06 Contest Score: 62 (Boo)
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:14:31 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and of course, congrats to Xuxon. Well played. The predictions he made down the stretch were not only accurate, but made it hard for others to catch up.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:17:44 PM | Message Detail
Congrats Xuxon, damn, a second time. And thanks to Morgoth and Kaxon for doing this thing and giving meaning to some otherwise piontless days in my life. <_<
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I've been called an idiot many times, mostly by people with poor grammar and a small vernicular. - ExtremeM65
From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:19:54 PM | Message Detail
wow...stole 5th from Z1mZum in the final 30 minutes.

So 5th place. Far better than my previous attempts, and with a ton of more opponents. Just wish I changed that one pick....
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:21:26 PM | Message Detail
The praise!!!!

Xuxon
*bows down*
I'm not quite sure I'm even worthy of ever being on the same leaderboard as you now. Wow. I always said You need talent to get on the Final Leaderboard and you need luck to actually win, but now I'll have to add but you need an unmeasurable amount of ass-kicking to win it twice, especially twice in-a-friggin-row.
Seriously, the most sincere congratulations and welcome to the rather excluse 3-times-on-the-Final-Leaderboard Club!

Camden & creativename
Another Top 10? Congratulations to both of you, each nailing your 4th Top 10 finish, something only kawaiifan had done before. Bonus points to Camden for doing it 4 times in a row (!). I'm getting my ass kicked here! Awesome work to both of you but don't worry, I'm getting my 4th this summer!

Kaxon
^5
Nicely done Kaxon, once again the best Board contest hosted in flawless fashion from the other side of the ocean!
For the record, you guys have no idea what this guy has done to the Oracle. He didn't only improve it, he saved it!!! It would be litterally impossible to run without his script and the database now (Updating takes 5-10 minutes instead of 2+ hours, and thanks to the database the site does everything by itself!), so please, everyone, another round of applause for our favorite host!!!

Anniversary
Two years I've been running or semi-running this thing? Wow, time flies...but who cares really because...
The Oracle Challenge in now officially 3 years old. 22,000 predictions and 900,000 (!!!) points later, it's still alive and kicking.
The only thing I can add?
solar would be proud.
The same guy managed to create the Oracle AND the Stats Topics. And kids these days have no clue who he was...sad really
*toast to solar's memory*
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: ad00 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:21:53 PM | Message Detail
Question: I know I had a great run at end of round 1/good part of round 2 - I went up from like 99 to 9.

More specifically, how good was the run between MM/MK and RE/SF (where I entered the top10) in relation to the others? (though I suppose thats 11 matches, not 10).
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You made the universe implode, what are we supposed to say? - Smurf
I apologize. It needed to happen sometime. - Josh Hartigan
From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:23:55 PM | Message Detail
What happened to solarshadow anyway?
From: Camden | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:32:19 PM | Message Detail
Kaxon
^5
Nicely done Kaxon, once again the best Board contest hosted in flawless fashion from the other side of the ocean!


XD, I just figured out what ^5 means after having seen it all over the place.

Also, I'd fourth or fifth or whatever the social topic. The stats topic goes way too fast for me, seeing as it's gone through fifty thousand topics or so now, and there seems to be a type of fighting game tier system built onto the userbase of this board.
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Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
Don’t worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:35:22 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, forgot to give thanks to Kaxon and King Morgoth for running such a great contest. Good job guys.
*bows down*
Great job Kaxon, Morgoth, on running this thing so well yet again, it was fun to get in on it this time around, I'm impressed by the quality of it all.
*bows down*
And thanks to Morgoth and Kaxon for doing this thing and giving meaning to some otherwise piontless days in my life. <_<
at your service!
(For the record, I copy all the comments because hey, you took the time to write them and I really do appreciate every single one of them)

(As an aside, curiosity makes me ask if its possible to see the tallying script for predictions on the board, and for gathering the results and all that stuff)
The scripts are Kaxon's work and I'm not touching the code with a 10-foot pole. If you're interested in the PHP though, that's my side of the bargain.

And I'll vote for the discussion topic. This is fun. And trust me, any random stat you can pull up, I'll look at it, and enjoy it, and care about it. I have more interest than anyone in random useless stats.
Don't worry, there'll be plenty of stats ;)

Question: I know I had a great run at end of round 1/good part of round 2 - I went up from like 99 to 9.

More specifically, how good was the run between MM/MK and RE/SF (where I entered the top10) in relation to the others? (though I suppose thats 11 matches, not 10).

I'll pull a few 10-matches run info (wrote the query for 10 matches, too lazy/hard to expand it properly) in a bit, just for fun.

What happened to solarshadow anyway?
He went on with his life. Yup. He left Board 8 the way people do it when they really mean to, without saying a word or suiciding or anything.

and there seems to be a type of fighting game tier system built onto the userbase of this board. (That has to be the best comment I've heard about it)
More support for a discussion topic? Well well well, this has gone from an idea with potential to a potential idea (ohhhhhhh witty) in an hour...
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:36:09 PM | Message Detail
Well, terrible OC for me, but at least I prevented a top 5 drought in the last match XD

Thanks hosts.
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Best. Series. Ever. Score: 62/64
Prediction: The Legend of Zelda vs. Final Fantasy
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:44:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, terrible OC for me, but at least I prevented a top 5 drought in the last match XD

Thanks hosts.


ditto.

And my own thanks to Kaxon and King Morgoth ^_^
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:45:09 PM | Message Detail
That stat I'm most interested in seeing is Oracle Average score, as as indicator of how difficult this Contest was to predict, compared to past seasons. Though that will take some 45-x conversion to make sense, of course...

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For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark
For My Consideration: How badly Z1mZum owned me in the BSE Guru Contest!
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:48:25 PM | Message Detail
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:45:09 PM | Message Detail
That stat I'm most interested in seeing is Oracle Average score, as as indicator of how difficult this Contest was to predict, compared to past seasons. Though that will take some 45-x conversion to make sense, of course...


I'll do that after the match streaks...


Oh and thanks!!! to Rodri and Falcon
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Ness26 | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:49:52 PM | Message Detail
Congrats Xuxon. ^_^

Anyway, this was much more fun than I thought it would be. I'm really surprised I finished as well as I did; I was expecting to totally bomb this. I still think about every single pick I made though. If I didn't let my opinion of Civ make me overestimate it, if I kept either Warcraft or Castlevania, if I didn't change one pick, etc etc. Still, 2nd place isn't bad at all.

Hopefully there'll be some fun competition in the Character Contest. ^_^
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Best. Board/Card Game. Ever Contest:
http://www.bracketmaker.com/tlist.cfm?tid=171196
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:54:36 PM | Message Detail
Great contest guys! I can't believe I'm finishing in 8th. I'm usually lucky to break the top 30.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:55:24 PM | Message Detail
And I can't believe I forgot this. Congrats Xuxon on another Oracle victory!
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
From: creativename | Posted: 8/1/2006 9:59:52 PM | Message Detail
Big congrats to Xuxon. A repeat, amazing. Such a thing seemed incredibly unlikely to ever occur. Anyone even winning two contests seemed like a pipe dream. Along with kawaiifan's lifetime points above average, it's the most impressive thing we've seen in the Oracle Challenge. Good work, Johnny Chan of the Oracles :)

And also a job well done to GoldSlime for his impressive performance, except for one oversight. Even Mega Man with 70% or Mario Kart with 50% and you would've gained the points you needed. Unfortunate, but impressive.


The least predicted match in this contest (Mario/FF) got more predictions than the most predicted match in all the rest of Oracle History. This contest had more predictions than two full length contests (SC2k4 and SpC2k4), and more than twice as many as either of the other 31 match contests. This gives us a high bar for next contest, but we'll be back (soon!) so I hope you all are too!

My warm thanks for all the time and efforts of Kaxon and King Morgoth :)

Also I liked the team tournament, that was an enjoyable innovation. Superb job guys.

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As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:05:34 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I just saw that Ness26 was only 0.63 points off. Excellent by him too, it deserves to be noted.
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As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:06:20 PM | Message Detail
BTW, would just like to note that my current sig comes from losing a sig bet, before anyone takes it the wrong way.
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As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious.
From: Camden | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:06:21 PM | Message Detail
I'll also give my thanks to K&K for running the contest. If you didn't, well, someone else probably would, but they wouldn't be nearly as cool.

Good work, Johnny Chan of the Oracles :)

That must make me the John Juanda of the Oracles.
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Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
Don’t worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
From: Xuxon | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:33:20 PM | Message Detail
I didn't know you were a poker fan, creativename. I don't really follow poker but I've watched the WSOP the last 2 years, and I play pretty well I think. Well, I do better than breaking even, anyway.

As for the social topic, I'm going to have to approve. The stats topic is, well, the stats topic. This year's oracle is pretty much proof that contest newbies/unknowns can know what they're talking about, too. Ness26 and TheKnightOfKnee, I'm looking at you. Extremely impressive first time runs.
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Take off every sig.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:35:12 PM | Message Detail
As per ad00's request:

TOP 10 BEST RUNS - SpC2k6 - Matches 14 [MM/MK] to 24 [RE/SF]
1) GameBopAdv - 515.57
2) ad00 - 501.43
3) alpha door - 494.05
4) Inviso - 492.56
5) Menji76 - 491.58
6) TheKnightOfNee - 491.27
7) Z1mZum - 489.67
8) Ness26 - 489.23
9) Team Rocket Elite - 488.12
10) lol_internet - 487.71

And now...

BEST 10-MATCHES RUNS - SpC2k6
1) GoldSlime35 - 473.06 [Matches 22-31]
2) ObscureMammoth - 471.95 [Matches 21-30]
3) RX7InfinitiIII - 471.67 [Matches 8-17]
4) GoldSlime35 - 470.44 [Matches 19-28]
5) GameBopAdv - 470.27 [Matches 15-24]
6) yoshifan823 - 470.12 [Matches 2-11]
7) Team Rocket Elite - 468.04 [Matches 21-30]
8) Salient - 467.37 [Matches 22-31]
9) Inviso - 466.44 [Matches 22-31]
10) Menji76 - 465.6 [Matches 22-31]
11) Xuxon - 464.81 [Matches 22-31]
12) freac - 464.23 [Matches 20-29]
13) Haste2 - 464.21 [Matches 22-31]
14) Ness26 - 464.11 [Matches 22-31]
15) creativename - 463.91 [Matches 20-29]
16) Ngamer64 - 463.01 [Matches 22-31]
17) ad00 - 462.71 [Matches 12-21]
18) Camden - 462.68 [Matches 22-31]
19) lol_internet - 462.4 [Matches 22-31]
20) Alanna82 - 462.36 [Matches 20-29]
21) Lightbearer75 - 461.69 [Matches 1-10]
22) meche313 - 460.99 [Matches 22-31]
23) TheKnightOfNee - 460.79 [Matches 8-17]
24) Dekar TKB - 460.27 [Matches 22-31]
included everyone who scored over 460 points

TOP 10 RUNS TO THE FINISH (LAST 10 MATCHES) - SpC2k6
1) GoldSlime35 - 473.06
2) Team Rocket Elite - 467.52
3) Salient - 467.37
4) Inviso - 466.44
5) Menji76 - 465.6
6) Xuxon - 464.81
7) Haste2 - 464.21
8) freac - 464.17
9) Ness26 - 464.11
10) Ngamer64 - 463.01

===================

TOP 20 RUNS TO THE FINISH - ALL-TIME
1) King Morgoth - 487.64 [SpC2k4]
2) Heroic Viktor - 486.06 [SC2k5]
3) GrapefruitKing - 482.44 [SC2k5]
4) Camden - 480.17 [SC2k5]
5) Ngamer64 - 480.15 [SC2k5]
6) FastFalcon05 - 479.62 [SC2k4]
7) FastFalcon05 - 479.42 [SC2k5]
8) Darkash - 477.47 [SC2k5]
9) Garsha - 475.85 [SC2k5]
10) Lagoona - 475.63 [SC2k5]
11) Garsha - 475.39 [SC2k4]
12) The n00b Avenger - 474.12 [SC2k3]
13) Master Moltar - 473.75 [SC2k4]
14) kawaiifan - 473.58 [SC2k4]
15) The n00b Avenger - 473.49 [SC2k4]
16) Yesmar - 473.25 [SC2k4]
17) GoldSlime35 - 473.06 [SpC2k6]
18) StopPokingMe - 473.05 [SC2k5]
19) kawaiifan - 472.87 [SC2k5]
20) PeaceOut64 - 472.36 [SC2k4]
...
25) ps2rulezzz - 471.05 [SpC2k4]
added the second best SpC2k4 finish for comparaison purpose. To make me look good. Whatever >_>

TOP 20 10-MATCHES RUNS - ALL-TIME
1) King Morgoth - 487.64 [SpC2k4 - Matches 54-63]
2) Heroic Viktor - 486.06 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
3) Kaxon - 482.94 [SC2k4 - Matches 1-10]
4) GrapefruitKing - 482.44 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
5) Alanna82 - 482.37 [SpC2k4 - Matches 11-20]
6) ATF - 480.52 [SC2k4 - Matches 1-10]
7) Camden - 480.17 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
8) Ngamer64 - 480.15 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
9) King Morgoth - 479.74 [SC2k4 - Matches 3-12]
10) FastFalcon05 - 479.62 [SC2k4 - Matches 54-63]
11) FastFalcon05 - 479.42 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
12) King Morgoth - 479.26 [SpC2k4 - Matches 10-19]
13) IceMole - 478.25 [SC2k4 - Matches 1-10]
14) BeTheMan - 478.18 [SpC2k4 - Matches 48-57]
15) Holy Excalibur - 478.15 [SC2k4 - Matches 36-45]
16) Ngamer64 - 478.07 [SC2k3 - Matches 48-57]
17) outback - 477.87 [SC2k5 - Matches 45-54]
18) Bananaquest - 477.57 [SpC2k4 - Matches 11-20]
19) Darkash - 477.47 [SC2k5 - Matches 57-66]
20) somdude04 - 477.31 [SC2k4 - Matches 18-27]
...
50) GoldSlime35 - 473.06 [SpC2k6 - Matches 22-31]
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:39:12 PM | Message Detail
If King Morgoth and Kaxon weren't running this, I wouldn't be sure if someone else will actually do it. The dedication this two users give to such a complex contest to run each day, non-stop for at least 31 or 63 matches, is impressive.

All I can say is that I'm lucky enough to have found this, and as someone already said, I'm sure I wouldn't care this much about the Oracle if you two didn't care like you do. So, you're the real winners here.

Xuxon, congrants. I don't know what, when, how or why you won twice, but whatever you did, it was just incredible. You need all the respect you can actually recieve, and should be more well known than the Guru Contest Winner. (and congrants on winning the Spread Betting as well!)
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“Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse
Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar
From: LotteryTicket | Posted: 8/1/2006 10:57:42 PM | Message Detail
To King Morgoth and Kaxon: Thank you so much for running this challenge. This was my first ever participation in oracle, and I was very happy to learn that I got 48th place in a challenge with 180 participants. The fact that you could make scripts like this in its own self is very impressive, and all the changes you had to make to the site due to the Teams (which, I might add, were awesome and should be included in the next challenge) must have been very stressful and its good to know you kept it up and finished.

And to Xuxon: Congratulations on winning the oracle challenge 2 years in a row. That sounds like an amazing feat, to be able to predict matches with great skill like you have the past 2 contests. I hope you continue to impress for the rest of the oracles as well.
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~~Stingers135~~
Nominate KOS-MOS from Xenosaga for This Years Summer Contest!
From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:14:25 PM | Message Detail
lol, nice.

I don't really understand the all time leaderboard though.

It says I gained +2542 this contest, and I have no clue where that number comes from.

Just saw the breakdown...don't really get it though. The explanation page is down.

Any chance for a "Matches Predicted" leaderboard on the site? Since apparently I'm 28th all-time, I'm curious as to my rank in matches predicted.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:18:07 PM | Message Detail
My warm thanks for all the time and efforts of Kaxon and King Morgoth :)
*is flattered*

I'll also give my thanks to K&K for running the contest. If you didn't, well, someone else probably would, but they wouldn't be nearly as cool.
*bows down*

That must make me the John Juanda of the Oracles.
And that makes me the Chris Moneymaker of the Oracles.
D'oh

As for the social topic, I'm going to have to approve. The stats topic is, well, the stats topic. This year's oracle is pretty much proof that contest newbies/unknowns can know what they're talking about, too. Ness26 and TheKnightOfKnee, I'm looking at you. Extremely impressive first time runs.

Ah crap, knew I was forgetting something...

Praise Part II
The n00bs there kicked our asses - Ness26 and TheKnightOfNee
Do I need to add anything? Seriously, wow. These are the two best results ever for a first contest (Alanna grabbed 4th in SpC2k4).
From the former champion in me, kudos to you guys, you just showed us all how to play this game...two more names to add to the "Watch these guys" list...

Moment of the contest
Match #14 - Mega Man X vs Mega Man
Winner: Mega Man X - 58.12%

Seriously, that was gold, especially since I had to fix it and had no clue what the hell went wrong...

---

If King Morgoth and Kaxon weren't running this, I wouldn't be sure if someone else will actually do it. The dedication this two users give to such a complex contest to run each day, non-stop for at least 31 or 63 matches, is impressive.

All I can say is that I'm lucky enough to have found this, and as someone already said, I'm sure I wouldn't care this much about the Oracle if you two didn't care like you do. So, you're the real winners here.

*blushes*
Oh great, I sound like kawaii now...>_>
To be honest, the day-to-day work is not as bad now as it was back in SC2k4 when I was still doing this by hand. We work a fair bit more in between the contests (He updates the scripts and adds new ones (yay for auto-results!), I add features to the site) but we managed to make everything pretty much automatic on a day-to-day basis, otherwise it wouldn't be manageable with over 150 predictions each day.
At the end of SpC2k5 (which is the last one I officially hosted), I was breaking down. Kaxon, who had helped when I was away for a few days, decided to try the unthinkable: switch everything from the Excel spreadsheets to a fully functional SQL Database/PHP website. Within a month. Fun times, really, fixing the last errors during the first match, but somehow we pulled it off, he accepted to host it, and the rest is history.

Oh and if people are really wondering what keeps us running, well we both enjoy what we're doing, and seeing 150 people jumping in and enjoying the contest is a great reward. Oh and traffic on the website went from 7,000 hits in the 63 days of SC2k5 to 24,000 hits last month. And that's the best incentive I could ever get to get off my chair and code new features!
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:20:06 PM | Message Detail
To King Morgoth and Kaxon: Thank you so much for running this challenge.
Thanks to you for kicking in and helping make this a success!!

Just saw the breakdown...don't really get it though. The explanation page is down.
ah crap, explanation would really help you, I'll fix that right away...
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: creativename | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:21:54 PM | Message Detail
I didn't know you were a poker fan, creativename. I don't really follow poker but I've watched the WSOP the last 2 years, and I play pretty well I think. Well, I do better than breaking even, anyway.

Yeah, I watch on TV sometimes and try to get together with my friends every now and then. Though it's been a few months since the last time.


And TheKnightOfNee, I want you to know that I was rooting for you, Monty Python mate. </Jack Sparrow>

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As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious.
From: Redtooth | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:33:23 PM | Message Detail
Congrats to Xuxon, what an amazing repeat victory in the Oracle. That's really quite fantastic. And of course, a huge thanks goes out to our amazing contest runners, Kaxon and King Morgoth. I really enjoyed this and appreciate the work you had to put into it to have everything run so smoothly. I can only see this contest getting bigger from how well you run it, so if you ever need it, I and I'm sure a lot of people would be more then willing to help out =).

And of course, Congrats to a stellar performance by Ness26, my partner is Team Muffin Hacks. Kudos to him pretty much carrying me on his back ^^;

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Every man is entitled to express his opinions and every other man is entitled not to listen.G. Norman Collie
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 8/1/2006 11:33:55 PM | Message Detail
Thanks you two. =P

I just noticed on the individual user pages, in the "best 10 predictions", scores are still listed as if Zelda won with 51.01%. Not sure if that's something you haven't got around to yet, or if it just got passed over, but I thought I'd mention it.

And thank you to you guys running this. While I love statistics, I don't know any coding to do something like this myself. I'm impressed with the organization on the site and the speed that everything gets updated. It's very well done, and what kept me coming to this contest over a couple of the other ones I tried my hands at, which were not as organized. I look forward to the next contest, and I hope my lack of knowledge of some characters doesn't pull me down too much.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:25:40 AM | Message Detail
And of course, a huge thanks goes out to our amazing contest runners, Kaxon and King Morgoth. I really enjoyed this and appreciate the work you had to put into it to have everything run so smoothly. I can only see this contest getting bigger from how well you run it, so if you ever need it, I and I'm sure a lot of people would be more then willing to help out =).
*bows down*
Bigger is better! More work but better! We'll still improve a few things so it should go even smoother this summer.

Thanks you two. =P

I just noticed on the individual user pages, in the "best 10 predictions", scores are still listed as if Zelda won with 51.01%. Not sure if that's something you haven't got around to yet, or if it just got passed over, but I thought I'd mention it.


The technical detail is complicated, but that page uses a different table from the database (since I didn't have time to fix that page when I rewrote all the coding before this contest) and Kaxon will patch it whenever he wakes up...
Kaxon, Daily info, once again, is screwed up. It's missing the last update, I fixed the results but not the daily standings. Figured you'll notice but that way I'm safe.

And thank you to you guys running this. While I love statistics, I don't know any coding to do something like this myself. I'm impressed with the organization on the site and the speed that everything gets updated. It's very well done, and what kept me coming to this contest over a couple of the other ones I tried my hands at, which were not as organized. I look forward to the next contest, and I hope my lack of knowledge of some characters doesn't pull me down too much.
*bows down*
We've been working on building this whole thing for a year now so it's starting to look good. Some links are still dead, hopefully I'll find some free time before the next one starts! Thanks for the praise too!

OVERALL AVERAGES
SC2k3 - 39.71 points (1499 predictions) [25-1x]
SpC2k4 - 42.00 points (4246 predictions) [45-2x]
SC2k4 - 43.77 points (4063 predictions) [45-2x]
SpC2k5 - 41.05 points (2082 predictions) [45-2x]
SC2k5 - 42.50 points (5656 predictions) [45-2x]
SpC2k6 - 42.61 points (4490 predictions) [45-1x]

Using 45-2x everywhere
SC2k3 - 41.35 points
SpC2k4 - 42.00 points
SC2k4 - 43.77 points
SpC2k5 - 41.05 points
SC2k5 - 42.50 points
SpC2k6 - 41.46 points

Using 45-x everywhere
SC2k3 - 42.83 points
SpC2k4 - 42.98 points
SC2k4 - 44.31 points
SpC2k5 - 42.34 points
SC2k5 - 43.57 points
SpC2k6 - 42.61 points

This was a tough one it seems...
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: _Lagoona_ | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:43:01 AM | Message Detail
.Well, CONGRATS to Xuxon - very impressive performance. I'm just sorry to have screwed up a better position in the team challenge for him. >_<

And a big THANKS to Kaxon and King Mogoth for running the contest again so smoothly!
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.Nobody's perfect. I'm nobody.
And I got still owned by Z1mZum, THE BSE Guru.
From: _Lagoona_ | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:44:11 AM | Message Detail
.Dang, you deserve better, KM... so that should read King Morgoth in the above post...
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.Nobody's perfect. I'm nobody.
And I got still owned by Z1mZum, THE BSE Guru.
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:53:31 AM | Message Detail
That just sounds more goth...
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Best. Series. Ever. Score: 78/80
Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and good with ketchup.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:55:26 AM | Message Detail
Witty Rodri....
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Xuxon | Posted: 8/2/2006 12:55:33 AM | Message Detail
Nah, you did fine, Lagoona. I had my fair share of screw-ups as well.

Also, I've been wondering something. Why do you start every post with a period?
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Take off every sig.
From: Menji76 | Posted: 8/2/2006 1:18:01 AM | Message Detail
Great contest guys, looks like I placed 40th, four spots lower than last year but a pretty decent performance.

I await the next contest in a couple of weeks.

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Board 8's #1 Duke Fan
Be Honest©
~Nominate Jade (Female - BG&E)~
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/2/2006 1:53:07 AM | Message Detail
Match #31 Results
The Legend of Zelda 50.99%
Final Fantasy 49.01%

And another one is in the books! The Series Contest brings us our closest final ever, and arguably the most exciting, but Final Fantasy was never able to put together the momentum it needed during its good hours to take the lead. Final predictions were more split than any match this contest, with 66 picks for Zelda and 49 for Final Fantasy. The consensus was an extremely accurate Zelda with 51.04% and the average score was 45.51 points.

Best Five Picks:
1) Big Bob - The Legend of Zelda 51.00% (+49.99)
2) TheKnightOfNee - The Legend of Zelda 50.97% (+49.98)
3) FastFalcon05 - The Legend of Zelda 50.89% (+49.90)
4) Rodri316 - The Legend of Zelda 51.11% (+49.88)
5) phlyerphan1 - The Legend of Zelda 51.12% (+49.87)

Today's best prediction goes to Big Bob! He finishes the contest in style with a near perfect prediction today after making the fifth-best prediction yesterday. TheKnightOfNee does well for himself, scoring 49.98 on the final match to wrap up a very successful first contest. We have some Oracle veterans on the leaderboard today - FastFalcon05 takes third, marking his 24th lifetime top 5, and Rodri316 takes fourth, for his 28th lifetime top 5, which ties him for most all-time with cyko and Ringworm. Phlyerphan1 takes fifth, his fourth top 5 of the contest.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k6&type=match&match=31

Current Leaderboard:
1) Xuxon - 1396.96
2) Ness26 - 1396.33
3) TheKnightOfNee - 1393.39
4) lol_internet - 1391.11
5) GoldSlime35 - 1389.75

Congratulations to Xuxon, winner of the SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge and our first ever two time champion! That truly ranks as one of the most impressive achievements we've seen in Oracle history. GoldSlime's bid for the title fell short as Final Fantasy couldn't put together the rally it needed - he drops to fifth. All I can say is I know how you feel, buddy. Ness26 kept it close to Xuxon all the way down the stretch and finished in second, an impressive achievement, especially for a first-timer. TheKnightOfNee, also a first-timer, finished in third. Soup Blazer, aka lol_internet, moved up one spot on the last day to finish fourth.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k6&type=total&match=31
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/2/2006 1:53:24 AM | Message Detail
Top Team Scores:
1) Team We Used To Be Good? - 98.01 (Kaxon: +49.02 / King Morgoth: +48.99)
2) Team Elton John's Time Machine - 98.00 (Paratroopa1: +48.30 / GrapefruitKing: +49.70)
3) Team Predestined Divination - 97.91 (creativename: +48.59 / Ngamer64: +49.32)
4) Team mvp's - 97.56 (ps2rulezzz: +49.51 / basmeyer42: +48.05)
5) Team Happy Happyists - 96.71 (Camden: +48.49 / meche313: +48.22)

Woa-ho, what happened there?! The Oracle Hosts had some kind of trick up their sleeves, as Team We Used To Be Good? tops team scores on the last day. We beat out Team Elton John's Time Machine (Paratroopa and GrapefruitKing) by 0.01 points, so they score second for the day. Team Predestined Divination scores third, followed by another superteam, Team mvp's, in fourth. Team Happy Happyists finish the contest on a high note with a fifth place score.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k6&type=teammatch&match=31

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 2762.48
2) Team Jigglypuff (Alanna82 / kawaiifan) - 2754.06
3) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 2753.39
4) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 2750.06
5) Team No Probalo! (Lagoona / Xuxon) - 2749.06

The winners of the first ever Oracle Team Challenge are ps2rulezzz and basmeyer42, Team mvp's! They took the lead at the end of the first round and held on to it with a deathgrip - they definitely deserve this title. The second place team is Alanna and kawaiifan's Team Jigglypuff, who did no less than expected for a team of their calibur. Team Predestined Divination doesn't quite live up to their pre-contest hype, but they do move up one spot to finish in third, which isn't bad for a first try. Team Happy Happyists finishes in fourth place - I'm guessing they're pretty happy! Finally, Team No Probalo! drops down two spots to fifth because Lagoona picked Final Fantasy to win - it'll be hard for Xuxon to complain about that when he just won the individual championship. And that's it for this time, congrats to all the leaders!

Complete Team Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k6&type=teamtotal&match=31
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: creativename | Posted: 8/2/2006 2:09:01 AM | Message Detail
Kudos to my skilled partner Ngamer for edging out Javman as the top predictor among those who missed a match.

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As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/2/2006 2:45:46 AM | Message Detail
Thanks for all the praise, everyone! It really makes all the time I put in worth it. I love the Oracle Challenge, and I have ever since I first saw it back when solar was still running it (although I didn't know who he was back then) so it's nice to see a lot of other people do to.

Also, a big thanks to King Morgoth, who did a huge amount this time around - as you may know, I've been in Ireland on business ever since day 9 of the contest, and the polls start at 5am over here. King Morgoth pretty much saved my ass by doing updates and entering predictions and all the stuff I didn't have as much time for. I'm probably one of the few people on the site hoping that the next contest doesn't start as soon as possible, since the later it starts, the more I'll be back in California for. Two contests ago, when I took over, he was basically supposed to be retiring from this, but somehow I managed to rope him into writing the website and doing all this extra work.=)

And thank you to you guys running this. While I love statistics, I don't know any coding to do something like this myself. I'm impressed with the organization on the site and the speed that everything gets updated. It's very well done, and what kept me coming to this contest over a couple of the other ones I tried my hands at, which were not as organized. I look forward to the next contest, and I hope my lack of knowledge of some characters doesn't pull me down too much.

Thank you!! This is the best kind of comment I could get, since most of the work I've done since taking this thing over has been about making it more organized. Of course, King Morgoth has a lot to do with that as well (he write the whole web site himself), but I had to provide that little push. =) And also, nice job for your first contest, I must say.

I definitely have more to say, and more stats, but that will have to come later...
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/2/2006 3:10:46 AM | Message Detail
Great job hosting this, and congrats to Xuxon on 2 in a row!

Finally got the net back, so should be able to think about this a bit more for the next contest (and not miss a day). I had a shocker though this time round.
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~ Ringworm ~
From: PeaceOut64 | Posted: 8/2/2006 7:18:44 AM | Message Detail
If I didn't change my last pick I could've gotten into the top 20, something I still haven't been able to do >_>. Oh well, I'll be looking forward to SC2k6.

Thanks to KM and Kaxon for all they did to put together another great Oracle.
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My goal since I joined the Leafs has always been to have on the ice a team as good as our fans. We have never quite gotten there. Some day we will. - Ken Dryden
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 8/2/2006 7:21:53 AM | Message Detail
The least predicted match in this contest (Mario/FF) got more predictions than the most predicted match in all the rest of Oracle History. This contest had more predictions than two full length contests (SC2k4 and SpC2k4), and more than twice as many as either of the other 31 match contests. This gives us a high bar for next contest, but we'll be back (soon!) so I hope you all are too!

Thus why I keep on finishing in the same place almost everytime... >_>

Good job to Kaxon and King Morgoth for running this. I know I wouldn't have the time or heart to run this.
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Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: Alanna82 | Posted: 8/2/2006 8:38:17 AM | Message Detail
12 overall, not bad. Almost had my third top 10 finish (and would have If I had gotten on to change my FF vs Mega Man pick that I had only had a safety pick for and I was going to change it >_>)

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Happily married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. "Most unusual tastes ever" - The RPGDL
From: alpha door | Posted: 8/2/2006 10:39:29 AM | Message Detail
Great contest you guys. Really enjoyable.
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Official Chrono Trigger Fan
Nominate Marina Liteyears for SC2k6!!
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/2/2006 11:25:12 AM | Message Detail
ATTN: Kaxon and King Morgoth

I love you guys. Congratulations on a contest well run.

Do you think that we could get a list of the Second Half leaderboard like last time? I came into this contest halfway through and I'd like to see how I compared to the rest of the best.

159th... meh.

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You can't call me a bigot.
I hate everyone equally.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/2/2006 3:02:30 PM | Message Detail
I don't have nice second half standings, but I can tell you that you ranked 79 out of 144 in the second half this time around. The second half top 10 were:

1. GoldSlime35 - 694.74 (46.32)
2. Ness26 - 681.49 (45.43)
3. Team Rocket Elite - 680.51 (45.37)
4. Inviso - 679.18 (45.28)
5. creativename - 678.46 (45.23)
6. Big Bob - 677.57 (45.17)
7. lol_internet - 676.6 (45.11)
8. Xuxon - 675.3 (45.02)
9. BeTheMan - 674.55 (44.97)
10. Menji76 - 673.26 (44.88)
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
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