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SC2k7 Oracle Challenge - Pre-contest / Team Signup Topic
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/14/2007 6:58:19 PM | Message Detail
I love how we're the ones who suck in your example =P
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2007 6:59:14 PM | Message Detail
after all, isn't the point of the Oracle Challenge to: "predict the winner and percentage for every match in the contest."?

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2007 6:59:59 PM | Message Detail
I love how we're the ones who suck in your example =P

hey, you choose who sucks in your examples. =P

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:00:52 PM | Message Detail
hey, you choose who sucks in your examples. =P

Yeah but usually it's only Kaxon =P
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:03:09 PM | Message Detail
In my opinion, the penalty is unnecessary here, because if you get them in the wrong order you're already losing points. In your example, I got B's percentage right, but because it was in the wrong place I had A and C way wrong, so I'm losing points for that already.

after all, isn't the point of the Oracle Challenge to: "predict the winner and percentage for every match in the contest."?

Actually, it's "the contest that tests your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!" =P
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6!
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:08:36 PM | Message Detail
fair enough. i'm just trying to throw more ideas out there. ^_^

that's the only one i've got, though.

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I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka
From: ad00 | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:10:33 PM | Message Detail
This oracle will be hell. Fun times.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak
From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:10:33 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I agree that we should be picking all 4 characters and no penalty is needed. Though its going to be really crazy having to predict 4 things per match.

My only issue is that 12.5 points per character is kinda low. I'd expect a lot of 0's or negatives. Though I guess it does make sense to keep it as 50 points per match.

Either way, I suggest we make a new averages category (or not count them at all) for this contest because the scoring is so different.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:12:44 PM | Message Detail
My only issue is that 12.5 points per character is kinda low. I'd expect a lot of 0's or negatives. Though I guess it does make sense to keep it as 50 points per match.

I've got my idea to "scale" things back to a decent 50-point scale, the total scores should make sense in the end...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Darkash | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:24:58 PM | Message Detail
HV: Team Battle Royale it is!

I agree that 12.5 seems a little low per guess, but if there's some way, like KM suggests, it can be scaled, it could work. I suppose predicting each percentage works, but I would suggest any system has some testing with *real* numbers (read: something more then that junk I posted as examples :) ) to see how it works in both blowouts and tight matches, as well as middle-of-the-roaders. I have faith in Kaxon and KM, though!
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All-time record holder for most top 5's in a single Oracle Challenge(12)
12th in the SpC2k4 Oracle Challenge!
From: ad00 | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:25:00 PM | Message Detail
well the contest has doubled size, scores should double as a result honestly...

25 points per character, simple enough.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak
From: Camden | Posted: 8/14/2007 7:39:04 PM | Message Detail
I think 25 points per character would work better simply because it's easier to deal with than half points, or at least it's easier for me to estimate how badly I think I'm doing in a current match, and outside of incredibly bad predictions negative scores really shouldn't make an entrance.
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Don't worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/14/2007 8:23:28 PM | Message Detail
Hm, double the points doesn't sound like a bad idea.

Also, and this is kind of silly, it's going to be much harder (if not impossible, really) to get perfect predictions. Granted, they're rarities anyway, but maybe for this year special tallies should be kept for each perfect character guessed?
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
From: Scythe Marshall | Posted: 8/14/2007 11:39:12 PM | Message Detail
As a total newb to the Oracle Challenge (as well as all the other board-related prediction things), I think predicting just the percentage might be the best idea here.

Besides, don't we have the Guru Contest for picking winners? There could be a nice synergy by having Guru pick winners and Oracle pick percentage.

Granted, it doesn't really matter to me; I'm just planning on having fun.
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Ignorance is bliss, no wonder I'm never happy. >_<
*Ching* Scythe Marshall ready to slaughter! FFT Junkie
From: Xene_Elk | Posted: 8/14/2007 11:40:14 PM | Message Detail
...oh my god

This is going to be so hard

Oh, If you want control of my signature, nominate KOS-MOS.
A whole week where my signature will parade your message!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/14/2007 11:57:47 PM | Message Detail
I think 25 points per character would work better simply because it's easier to deal with than half points, or at least it's easier for me to estimate how badly I think I'm doing in a current match, and outside of incredibly bad predictions negative scores really shouldn't make an entrance.

Yeah, we're definitely not going to just do 12.5-x for each character. We'll do something to keep the scores from being zero all the time.
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6!
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 8/15/2007 12:06:21 AM | Message Detail
You could do 50-x or 25-x for each character, and then divide by 4 or 2 for each to get the base score back to 50. And by starting with the larger number, it'll keep people from hitting 0.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: kaonashi1 | Posted: 8/15/2007 12:15:48 AM | Message Detail
haha, "Better Bettors" came to mind, hmm..

That's a ridiculously cheesy pun.
....I like it. Suits me well. Better Bettors it is!

That reminds me: do you have any ideas on how Spread Betting will work with this? I know that the concept of spread betting itself draws from betting in sports-- is there a suitable sports-based analogue for this kind of 4-way competition? I had an idea, but it's a little more complicated than straight spread betting. Basically, you set over/under numbers for each character, and bettors have the chance to wager on any or all of them. For example, the first set of lines could be Knuckles (28), Rikku (24), Vaan (20), Yoshi (28). A bettor can bet Knuckles > 28, or Knuckles > 28 AND Yoshi < 28, etc. Each character they bet on nets them 0.5x the amount bet originally if they get every match right (for a maximum of 2x their original bet), but if they err on even one of the characters they bet on, they lose their bet. How does that sound?

As for the scoring system for the Oracle challenge, I'm more for the side of rewarding people who get the winners right in some way (or rather, penalizing those who get them wrong). For example, assume the following situation for the first match:

Knuckles 28%
Yoshi 27%
Rikku 23%
Vaan 22%

Now suppose that one player guesses Knuckles 30%, Yoshi 30%, Rikku 20%, Vaan 20%. Under a straight percentage scoring scheme (each character worth 25 maximum), this player gets 90 points. Suppose a second player guesses Yoshi 30%, Rikku 25%, Knuckles 24%, Vaan 21%. This player gets the same 90 points despite getting the winners wrong. If there's a penalty system for missed winners, I think that since there are more characters in play, it'll be harder to hedge predictions to stay on the safe side, while still providing incentive to make bold winner predictions. (Heck, some players have won the Challenge outright by doing just that. >.>) Also, it's consistent with the philosophy of the original scoring system.
...I wrote this up without noticing that cyko had put up a much more thorough example, so, uh, I'll also say that his example works excellently and I agree with it. But I'm not going to be dismayed or anything if you choose not to implement a penalty for incorrect winners.
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 8/15/2007 12:26:36 AM | Message Detail
I like the idea of 25-x per character to do an even 100 points per match, myself. It would be rare to me more than 25% off with someone, that's for sure.

No penalties for getting the wrong winners? I don't mind that, either...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 8/15/2007 12:29:13 AM | Message Detail
Also, Ness! Do you have any good ideas for team names? We need something.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 8/15/2007 5:36:58 AM | Message Detail
I SHALL GO WITH WHAKKOJAKKO, AKA LINA, IF HE SO CHOOSES.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz
"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/15/2007 5:39:08 AM | Message Detail
I think daily totals should be scaled back to 50 to keep some conformity with prior contests. I think working it as 25-x or 50-x, and then dividing by 2 or 4, makes great sense. I think missing the winner should be some penalty though. Maybe do the 25 or 50-x, dividing by 2 or 4, and if you pick the wrong winner, take off 5 points. If you miss 2nd, take off another 2.5. I mean realistically, the contest is predicting 1st and 2nd each day. The contest has always followed the general spirit of the rules, so I think having a penalty for not correctly predicting the two characters that advance in the correct order should be adversely affected.

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Trivia: Two Comps and a Tnote
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/15/2007 10:03:16 AM | Message Detail
Thanks for the feedback everyone! Here's what Morgoth and I decided to do based on the comments and our own thoughts.

Character Battle 6 Oracle Challenge scoring system

Every match, your score will be 50 - (w + x + y + z)/4, where the letters are the % off you are for each character. This could be expressed more simply as:

50 - (Average % off)

By using a 50 point scale, we keep the scoring kind of similar to what everyone's used to, which is a good thing. Subtracting by the average % wrong instead of the total should keep the scores from going too low (Essentially, we're giving you 50-x for each character, which was the old system, and then averaging that).

This time around we're going to try not penalizing people for having the wrong winners. A number of the comments were in favor of that, but additionally, it makes things a LOT simpler. I think having rules that are easy to understand, and make it easier for us to run the contest, is worth this departure from tradition. Also, remember that someone who gets the order wrong is already going to be losing points because their predictions have to be off.

The prediction topic will be up later today!
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6!
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 8/15/2007 10:05:41 AM | Message Detail
woo!
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hi
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 8/15/2007 10:07:49 AM | Message Detail
Okay, then. This is gonna be a *really* high scoring Oracle Challenge, methinks...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:02:37 AM | Message Detail
Good decision guys, it's a simple scoring system and I think the right choice for us.

Now here's something that was brought up in the BR, but I'd like to hear an official ruling on this year... In our predictions, does the sum of our 4 guesses have to add up to exactly 100%?

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:14:21 AM | Message Detail
The sum does not have to be 100%... we don't want to disqualify predictions if people don't make them add up right, and I don't think there's any clever strategy that doesn't add up to 100%

If the scoring is too high, we might rescale things in a way that doesn't affect the rankings (like dividing by 2 instead of 4)... we'll just wait and see.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:21:06 AM | Message Detail
Good choice.
Simple and fun, this is what the oracle challenge is all about.
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It's a penguin murder mystery !!!
From: Hartzenan | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:29:21 AM | Message Detail
I still need a partner!

Anyone will do (I know I saw tomoyo and andylt looking too, I'd gladly partner with either of them)
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The world is round, my square don't fit at all...
groups.myspace.com/academyofscience - Enlist Today!
From: yoshifan823 | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:32:35 AM | Message Detail
YAY! The oracle goes on! And now I will proceed to blow you all away!
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes...
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 8/15/2007 11:56:10 AM | Message Detail
I'll take anyone. =D
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This was Ed Bellis.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2007 12:52:58 PM | Message Detail
(Heck, some players have won the Challenge outright by doing just that. >.>)
I have no idea what you're talking about.... >_>

Okay, then. This is gonna be a *really* high scoring Oracle Challenge, methinks...
Yeah, that why I'm still trying to figure out how to scale things "correctly"...we'll get this right!

The prediction topic will be up later today!
what? >_>

Team update coming up soon...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Maniac64 | Posted: 8/15/2007 2:49:06 PM | Message Detail
This seems much more complex than I expected. We are so doomed Overlord.
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"If anyone ever tries to kill you you try and kill them right back." ~ Firefly
SoaP on a Rope - SoaR Secretary of Defense
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/15/2007 2:57:55 PM | Message Detail
In case Draco comes back in here, I'd just like to let him know that if he really wants to win the team oracle, I'll happily withdraw. Like, seriously. Otherwise, whee.
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caps
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:12:01 PM | Message Detail
I'll try to do some hunting later on tonight to clean up that list a bit...

People who have been formally requested: (requester):
ActJef (Weird Kirby Dude)
cokes (Giggsalot)
GMUN (warning_crazy)
HM (consolefreak)
Icon (Tom Bombadil)
Luster (FigureOfSpeech)
Sine (jonthomson)
StifledSilence (Shaduln)
transience (Icon)
Wakko (XIII_rocks)

People looking for a partner: (Requests)
andylt
Aprosenf (Top 25)
baubeta
BeTheMan
Biolizard28
Cokes
consolefreak (HM)
DarkLink89
DaruniaTheGoron
entropyx
Ed Bellis
Evil_REmade
FigureOfSpeech (Luster)
freac
Gaddswell
Giggsalot (cokes)
GoldSlime35 (?)
Hartzenan (Tomoyo,andylt)
Icon (transience)
jonthomson (Sine)
Kaidyn04
Luster Soldier
Mantyke
marioinblack
MegatokyoEd
NClark128
oneills1
PeaceOut64
pikaness
Radix
Redtooth
SF_Clowns
Shaduln
Shoenin_Kakashi (?)
StifledSilence
supdawg
Taslion (Luster, Tombawocxer)
th3l3fty
Tombawocxer
Tomoyo
Tom Bombadil (icon)
transience (looking for someone to hold his nuts)
warning_crazy (GMUN)
Weird Kirby Dude 11 (ActJef)
WhakkoJacko
XIII_rocks (WhakkoJacko)

Teams:
1. Kaxon/King Morgoth - Team We Used To Be Good?
2. Janus5000/KleenexTissue50 - Team Battle with Gilgamesh = J-E-N-O-V-A
3. neonreaper/Sess - Team Jagermeister
4. amyvitality66/raytan7585 - Team Klonoa Alliance
5. Dekar TKB/Haste2 - Team Drunkadelict Armadillos
6. Explicit Content/Master Moltar - Team Big Black Wangs
7. linkhatesganon/ScorpionX3 - Team Los Gonzalez
8. DSRage/War13104 - Team RAGE OF WARCRAFT
9. _Yonex_/Ayvuir - Team The Shy Teds
10. Stingers/Tirofog - Team Eltbus
11. MajinZidane/Smurf - Team The X Crewstaters
12. Alanna82/kawaiifan - Team Jigglypuff
13. BBallman7/LinkLegend27 - Team ???
14. Luis_Sera89/StifledSilence - Team StifledSera
15. TRE/Xcarvengerx - Team ???
16. FastFalcon05/kaonashi1 - Team Better Bettors
17. CrimsonOcean/Lady Ashe - Team Vector Industries
18. Applekidjosh/Jay Lv99 - Team Elitist Clique Members
19. outback/Rodri316 - Team ???
20. AmazingKirby/Draco1214 - Team ???
21. satai_delenn/Lopen - Team The Council of Two
22. MaxedOutRyu/yoshifan823 - Team Boondock Saints
23. Sir Chris/yoblazer33 - Team ???
24. Forceful Dragon/SBell0105 - Team DragonBellZ
25. BZer0/ShatteredElysium - Team Ice Cream
26. basmeyer42/ps2rulezzz - Team mvp's
27. GameBopAdv/IhatethisCPU - Team It's An Upset! And You're On Your Own
28. Eeeevil Overlord/Maniac64 - Team Fodder
29. Camden/meche313 - Team Happy Happyists
30. Vlado/Zylo the wolf - Team ???
31. alpha door/Lagoona - Team ???
32. Ness26/TheKnightOfNee - Team ???
33. BlAcK TuRtLe/XxSoulxX - Team lol xstats
34. Jmast7/Leebo86 - Team ?Discovery Channel?
35. Dilated Chemist/Z1mZum - Team Awesome
36. Pats_Dynasty/SuperSmash Master - Team ?ISS GON RAIN?
37. creativename/Ngamer64 - Team Predestined Divination
38. StopPokingMe/ToadYoshi - Team ???
39. GrapefruitKing/Xuxon - Team ???
40. DpObliVion/WiggumFan267 - Team Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games!
41. Canth/Scythe Marshall - Team Hyperion
42. ad00/cyko - Team ???
43. Darkash/Heroic Viktor - Team Battle Royale
44. Menji76/Seguinstemple - Team Team magical innuendo pirates with guitars
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: somdude04 | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:31:50 PM | Message Detail
Hey, you missed me (See post 290). I think by what I stated I might have a partner, too.

GJ
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http://www.facebook.com/p/Grant_Johnson/9202808
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:33:27 PM | Message Detail
I'll stick with you, AmazingKirby. What shall we call our team?
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Currently Playing: Half-Life 2, Super Castlevania 4, Dragon Quest VIII
From: trannyscience | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:34:31 PM | Message Detail
I do believe that ted ransience and I will be teammates!
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xexyz
From: trannyscience | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:35:05 PM | Message Detail
(provided your internet is stable enough to make predictions, or will be in three weeks?)
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xexyz
From: Sugand | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:36:20 PM | Message Detail
Hey I'd like to withdraw from the contest, cause I know I will forget.
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RIP DW RPG, some great memories(check out the cool banner): http://dwdynasty33.proboards31.com/index.cgi
From: Suprak the Stud | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:36:34 PM | Message Detail
*sign*

But I'll need a partner. I'll partner with absolutely anyone.
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"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:44:21 PM | Message Detail
Hey, you missed me (See post 290). I think by what I stated I might have a partner, too.

And that is exactly why you need to keep an eye on me, I'll fix it on the next repost. And you can even confirm who you'll team up with if you want.

*****
I do believe that ted ransience and I will be teammates!
huh?

*****
NOTE:
Even if you said you'll team up with anyone, if someone requests you and you agree please post to confirm so, makes it easier for me to make sure that I don't mess up...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: trannyscience | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:45:08 PM | Message Detail
ted ransience = an alt of Ed Bellis!
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xexyz
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:47:15 PM | Message Detail
interesting...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: ScorpionX3 | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:48:25 PM | Message Detail
at least 44 teams? seriously, great!!
_-
I need another Guru Contest to get another signature...
From: ad00 | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:56:23 PM | Message Detail
I guess its too late but uh.... there was also the option of keeping the exact same scoring you know =P

Wherein we only guess the top vote getter.

Somehow this seems to make the most sense to me >_>
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:57:33 PM | Message Detail
Don't withdraw from the Contest just because you're going to forget to predict. Withdraw from the TEAM Contest only, just so you're not hurting anyone else if you do forget.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:57:58 PM | Message Detail
I'll throw in a formal request for either PeaceOut64 or Luster Soldier.
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.
From: Tomoyo | Posted: 8/15/2007 3:58:41 PM | Message Detail
Ah, I see that Hartzenan made a request for a team with me? I do not mind at all teaming up with Hartzenan. ^_^
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Tooi Kono Machi De-"daisuki datta ano uta furui teepu no naka chiisana kizu iro aseta taitoru nijinda yoake"
From: Starion | Posted: 8/15/2007 4:01:04 PM | Message Detail
Eh, why not. You can put me in a random team too.
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
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