*pumps fists*

Also...

Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA

That's not what the website says!
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.

Whoohoo, not last!

Yet......

---
Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket

wateva gurls


-ЧRÀG£-
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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

lol when I did my predictions for today's match I didn't put a % sign next to my prediction for Arthas.

Arthas Menethil -10.45
Diablo - 25.01 %
KOS-MOS -20.79 %
Mega Man - 42.75 %


I have no idea why I did that and I never caught it, but is there any chance that I could kind of get it added please. If not it's cool cuz I screwed up but I figured I'd try asking anyways.
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If we're not supposed to eat animals, then why are they made out of meat?
Board 8's Head of Covert Operations

I have no idea why I did that and I never caught it, but is there any chance that I could kind of get it added please. If not it's cool cuz I screwed up but I figured I'd try asking anyways.

It will get fixed...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Thanks!
---
If we're not supposed to eat animals, then why are they made out of meat?
Board 8's Head of Covert Operations

Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA

That's not what the website says!

NEW 1) Janus5000 49.21 +49.21 0.00 49.21 (1)
NEW 3) KleenexTissue50 48.88 +48.88 -0.33 48.88 (1)

I beg to differ.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin

Touche.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.

Best Five Picks:
1) Janus5000 - Knuckles 27.63% - Rikku 26.09% - Vaan 11.12% - Yoshi 35.16% (+49.21)
2) Vlado - Knuckles 28.15% - Rikku 25.43% - Vaan 9.96% - Yoshi 36.46% (+49.14)
3) KleenexTissue50 - Knuckles 28.32% - Rikku 25.12% - Vaan 11.30% - Yoshi 35.26% (+48.88)
4) Lopen - Knuckles 30.30% - Rikku 26.61% - Vaan 9.07% - Yoshi 34.02% (+48.77)
5) GoldSlime35 - Knuckles 30.00% - Rikku 25.00% - Vaan 10.00% - Yoshi 35.00% (+48.69)
5) outback - Knuckles 30.00% - Rikku 25.00% - Vaan 10.00% - Yoshi 35.00% (+48.69)

Outback also tied for fifth, which I didn't notice at first. He had the same predictions as GoldSlime.
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

I was way off today! I thought Arthas would be complete trash (especially after seeing Vaan today), but I guess not. Also, I think the sum of Vaan's opposition was probably stronger than the sum of Arthas's, even though Mega Man is obviously stronger than anyone in yesterday's match.
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

24?

Nice start! =D

I was expecting around 100ish.
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raytan. The Cream of Terra Branford Fanboyism.
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2675/11584879241lc9.jpg

Also, I think the sum of Vaan's opposition was probably stronger than the sum of Arthas's, even though Mega Man is obviously stronger than anyone in yesterday's match.

That's what I was thinking, so I guessed a bit higher for Arthas than Vaan. Not nearly enough, apparently.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

5) Team Klonoa Alliance - 95.02 (raytan7585 +47.52 / amyvitality66 +47.50)

^5 Amy! OUR STRATEGY WORKS!! =D
Yay for Top 5.....temporary only. <_<
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raytan. The Cream of Terra Branford Fanboyism.
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2675/11584879241lc9.jpg

Chee...I'm doing very well. =)

And ^5 to Tantan. Klonoa Alliance will rule!
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amyvitality, The Cream of Final Fantasy IX Fangirlism.
"Ecchi is bad." - Mahoro Andou

NEW! 19) Predestined Divination 93.19 +93.19 -4.90 93.19 (1)
NEW! 20) We Used To Be Good? 93.18 +93.18 -4.91 93.18 (1)

Oh hoho! Get used to that position, boys- you'll be craning your necks to catch a glimpse of us all Fall long!

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!

It's time to compare... the 4-way poll calculators! It does not adjust for SFF, by the way...

I arbitarily assigned some x-stats to each character, and messed with them until the results were optimized (more-or-less)...of course, the optimizing is all relative, so I've decided on the absolutes myself. Thanks to Morgoth for that Excel file.

creativename's results:
Yoshi - 32% on BL
Knuckles - 29.5%
Rikku - 29.25%
Vaan - 21.75%...so much for SFF?

King Morgoth's results:
Yoshi - 33.75%
Knuckles - 28.5%
Rikku - 28%
Vaan - 11.5%... holy SFF!

Winner: Tough choice, but I'll say creativename's seems a little better. For the CURRENT match going on, it looks like Morgoth's method will be better.

Finally, for the less-credible Haste2 method:
Yoshi - 33%
Knuckles - 29%
Rikku - 28.5%
Vaan - 14%.... about what I'd expect an SFFed Vaan to be worth.

Actually, I like my results the best for Day 1, haha...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Stifled!
---
"Eet's game time..."

TRE, our team name is Team TREX or T-REX. What do you think? Any name is better than ???... >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
Common mispronounce = eks-car-fan-gear-eks

Actually, I like my results the best for Day 1, haha...

I'm the closest on all four characters though....
Which is weird considering my prediction sucked!

As for today...lol Diablo
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Oh that's BL, nvm....
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

daniel2424:
I could be wrong because it has been a while since one of these contests, but didn't there used to be a penalty for picking the incorrect winner? Wasn't it 50-x if you were right and 45-2x if wrong? Personally I think next year there should be some way of penalizing missed places like (I think) there have been in previous tournaments.
For example, the 7th place pick had Rikku over Knux by 2.5%, which seems wrong to me somehow. But again for the first year this system is fine, this is probably a better discussion for this spring...

This has been discussed extensively in the pre-contest topic. I thought about including penalties but they led to two different problems:
- How do you penalize exactly? (1>2 vs NOT 1 > 2 ; a 4-2-1-0 system like the contest scoring, etc...) How complicated do we want the scoring system to be?
- How do you program this in a rather easy way? What do you with ties for 1st-2nd, 2nd-3rd or even 1st-2nd-3rd in people's predictions?

It was pretty much unanimous that introducing penalties weren't worth the trouble it would imply...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Well I'm not in last so I'd say that's a win.

Now if my teammate would just get his predictions in.
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SoaP on a Rope - SoaR Secretary of Defense
[Browncoat] ~Board 570901~

My goal is to finish in the Bottom 10. And I won't even try to do bad. I'm just naturally terrible at this....

The sad thing is I'm doing better than my partner....

Poor Mets and Sonic at the Oracle Games....such a fun name gone to waste.....

---
Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket

After fixing everything (I think)

Stats for Match 1
175 Predictions NEW RECORD! (Previous: Season Opener: 151 [SpC2k6], All-time: 167 [SpC2k6 #12,14])
67 Teams NEW RECORD! (Previous: 54 [SC2k6])
61 Teams with dual predictions NEW RECORD! (Previous: 50 [SpC2k6 Various])

Average Score: 45.78 points
Consensus:
Yoshi - 34.59% (-0.88%)
Knuckles the Echidna - 30.32% (+2.48%)
Rikku - 21.59% (-5.55%)
Vaan - 13.53% (+3.99%)

People with predictions that do not add up to 100.00% : 24 (lowest: 90%, highest: 109%)
People who accurately called this match at 99.99%: 3

Our "Bracket" split:
Yoshi > Knuckles the Echidna : 136 [77.71%]
Yoshi > Rikku : 7 [4.00%]
Yoshi > Vaan : 2 [1.14%]
Knuckles the Echidna > Yoshi : 24 [13.71%]
Knuckles the Echidna > Rikku : 1 [0.57%]
Vaan > Yoshi : 1 [0.57%]

GameFAQs Brackets:
Yoshi > Knuckles - 17.07%
Yoshi > Other - 12.89%
Knuckles > Yoshi - 29.85%
Knuckles > Other - 21.06%
Other > Yoshi - 7.93%
Other > Knuckles - 4.27%
Other > Other - 6.93%

On a different topic, 92 AMP? Damn, that's probably my record...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Wow, my Arthas pick was horrendous. Sorry about that Camden <__<

King Morgoth:

This has been discussed extensively in the pre-contest topic. I thought about including penalties but they led to two different problems:
- How do you penalize exactly? (1>2 vs NOT 1 > 2 ; a 4-2-1-0 system like the contest scoring, etc...) How complicated do we want the scoring system to be?
- How do you program this in a rather easy way? What do you with ties for 1st-2nd, 2nd-3rd or even 1st-2nd-3rd in people's predictions?

It was pretty much unanimous that introducing penalties weren't worth the trouble it would imply...

That's fine, sorry, I missed all that, I rarely stop by during the off-seasons. I've got no problem with a more complex scoring system, but the ties problem does lead to quite a quandary. I'm sure we can figure something out before the next contest if this formula doesn't work out well enough.

BTW, well done on the contest. I helped on 2k4 I think it was but it wasn't nearly as well set-up as it is now, I felt I should commend you while I dissect some of the nit-picky things!
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If you think the fastest way to a man's heart is through his stomach, you're aiming about 8 inches too high.

My Arthas pick isn't great either, ten percent, but luckily nothing else is too bad. Also, only 17% of the people who created a bracket were able to figure the first match out? Was Yoshi->Knuckles some hotly debated match I just didn't notice or something?
---
Earthbound: It's like living inside your gym shoes.
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud

Most brackets were people who did not read the rules and pretended Knux/Rikku and Vaan/Yoshi were separate matchups.
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Pokemon FC: 0129 8285 9148
Jump Ultimate Stars FC: 1504 2045 7334

Or, didn't realize order mattered, and since Knuckles was first on the list, picked him first.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Wow 16th place for my first time in the Oracle. My guess is after today I'll only being falling from there.
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Official 4th place winner of Summer Contest 2k4

Although those I good theories, I guess we'll know for sure after today's match.

Even if that first match was a bit debated, 17% just sounds awful.

I cry for my oracle score in 99 minutes. 32nd today, in before triple digits.
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It's iubaris, not Lubaris.

swirIdude
Most brackets were people who did not read the rules and pretended Knux/Rikku and Vaan/Yoshi were separate matchups.

Xuxon
Or, didn't realize order mattered, and since Knuckles was first on the list, picked him first.

I made both these mistakes first time I filled the bracket. Wasn't until I read the board that I figured out what was going on. Anybody who didn't read the instructions was highly likely to mess something up, and I think it would certainly be a minority that read the instructions.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

creativename's results:
Yoshi - 32% on BL
Knuckles - 29.5%
Rikku - 29.25%
Vaan - 21.75%...so much for SFF?

This doesn't look right...my flawed method tends to give much more lopsided results. Also it doesn't add up right.

For the CURRENT match going on, it looks like Morgoth's method will be better.

Yep, results are much flatter than my way would probably predict.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Gah, such a hard pick tonight. I thought it would be a piece of cake... Samus greater than Mega Man, against weaker competition, so should win by a good bit more, with Kerrigan in last by a mile with yet another pathetic showing. But then Blizzard looked so strong today (just a matter of Arthas getting a bigger chunk than we thought), AND she finally gets the box art pic she's always needed (and which worked so well for Arthas) and then after that good Rikku showing I'm not even sure Frog wins the Square SFF... what a mess!

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!

Gah, such a hard pick tonight.

This contest is going to be a pretty rough streak of 63 hard picks...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

This doesn't look right...my flawed method tends to give much more lopsided results. Also it doesn't add up right.

Er... I hate to not give you credit for realizing this, and maybe I'm misunderstanding your interpretation, but that was your flawed method in reverse. So your flawed method giving abnormally low scores to the weakest character, in reverse, gives the character a relatively high x-stat value.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Ouch. I plummet to 94th.

---
No.1 in my Final Fantasy female rankings.
*is raytan7585* at computer working lab

go team go

i am helping so much >_>
---
This was KING BELLIS LOL

holy crap -- I finally got a #1 pick?

aww yeah
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http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/258/cloudvsjillvsocloectvsmfw4.jpg
now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc

well, that's just painful. i've really gotta stop making last second changes.

i went from:

Axel - 13.31%
Frog - 21.08%
Samus Aran - 54.19%
Sarah Kerrigan - 11.42%

to:

Axel - 12.31%
Frog - 19.08%
Samus Aran - 54.19%
Sarah Kerrigan - 14.42%

probably just cost myself a point and a half right there. -_-

---
I support the following SC2K6 characters:
L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka

i am on my way to the top after moving 33 position up.

Ouch, 32 to 104. :(
---
It's iubaris, not Lubaris.

Hot damn, Team C.R.E.A.M. movin on up with both team members in the top 20.

Soon it'll be C.R.E.A.M. > JENOVA!
---
Cokes
Jubilant Exuberance

I'm happy with a fall of 7 spots, thought it could have been a lot more. Should pretty much hold my spot today based on the current vote numbers, but I don't expect to stay top 20 for long. Still probably my best start since the first comp, when contestant numbers were a lot less.

Me and Menji aren't doing too bad at all...looking up today too.
---
If I had written the book, I would have made it so the spirit of man pops out of Winston and socks O'Brien in the face really hard...

9th overall and 8th in team, sounds good. And if Frog can take a little bit away from Sarah today should also be a good day.

Also, less than 5% of the site now has a perfect bracket? I might actually appear on the leaderboard the way things are going, and after looking at my bracket again I'll need to do it early because I won't be there long.
---
Earthbound: It's like living inside your gym shoes.
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud

Match # 2 Results
Mega Man 50.49%
KOS-MOS 18.43%
Arthas Menethil 15.66%
Diablo 15.42%

This contest continued to surprise us today as Arthas, who was predicted to finish last easily, managed to beat out Diablo for third place. 60 out of 171 people had Diablo finishing second to advance to the next round, and Diablo was projected to have a close match with KOS-MOS, not Arthas. The consensus predictions were: Arthas Menethil - 10.12%, Diablo - 19.43%, KOS-MOS - 19.84%, Mega Man - 50.83%, close on Mega Man and KOS-MOS, but off on Diablo and Arthas.

Best Five Picks:
1) transience - Arthas 12.91% - Diablo 16.77% - KOS-MOS 19.43% - MM 50.89% (+48.62)
2) KleenexTissue50 - Arthas 13.23% - Diablo 16.87% - KOS-MOS 20.88% - MM 49.02% (+48.05)
3) ps2rulezzz - Arthas 14.00% - Diablo 18.00% - KOS-MOS 20.00% - MM 48.00% (+47.92)
4) satai_delenn - Arthas 20.00% - Diablo 15.00% - KOS-MOS 15.00% - MM 50.00% (+47.83)
5) MegatokyoEd - Arthas 15.00% - Diablo 20.00% - KOS-MOS 18.45% - MM 46.55% (+47.70)

Today we had no predictions over 49 points, but the top spot was taken by the man of numerous nicknames, transience! This is his first ever top prediction. Kleenex betters his #3 pick from yesterday with the #2 pick today, starting off the contest on a roll. Ps2rulez claims the third spot, followed by satai_delenn and MegatokyoEd.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=2

Current Leaderboard:
1) KleenexTissue50 - 96.93
2) transience - 96.71
3) Vlado - 95.49
4) Janus5000 - 95.12
5) yoshifan823 - 94.96

Kleenex jumps out to an early lead with his two top-3 predictions, but tranny isn't far behind thanks to being 11th yesterday and 1st today. Those two have separated themselves by a little over a point from third place Vlado. Janus is still in the top 5, dropping from first to fourth, and yoshifan enters the leaderboard in fifth place. Kleenex, tranny, and Janus are all leaderboard newbies this contest, while Vlado and yoshifan have been there before.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=2
---
Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

Top Team Scores:
1) ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs - 94.64 (transience: +48.62 / Ed Bellis: +46.02)
2) Better Bettors - 94.57 (FastFalcon05: +46.97 / kaonashi1: +47.60)
3) ??? - 94.13 (AmazingKirby: +46.74 / entropyx: +47.39)
4) C.R.E.A.M. - 94.06 (Giggsalot: +46.92 / Cokes: +47.14)
5) Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA - 93.96 (Janus5000: +45.91 / KleenexTissue50: +48.05)

The top team of the day is ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs, featuring Ed Bellis (ted crunkenstein) and transcience (the AUGHs). The Better Bettors had the second best prediction, missing the top spot by 0.07. The unnamed AmazingKirby and entropyx duo had the third best score, followed by Team C.R.E.A.M. (Cokes and Giggsalot). Kleenex and Janus appeared in the team top 5 for the second day in a row.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=2

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA (Janus5000 / KleenexTissue50) - 192.05
2) Team ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs (transience / Ed Bellis) - 189.17
3) Team ??? (AmazingKirby / entropyx) - 189.01
4) Team Don't Get Too Cocky (Lopen / satai_delenn) - 188.47
5) Team Better Bettors (FastFalcon05 / kaonashi1) - 187.74

It's a clique party at the top of the team standings! Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA is first by a three point margin, and ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs are in second. AmazingKirby and entropyx are third, and the team formerly known as Team Don't Get Too Cocky (now called The Council of Two... I need to update the website) are fourth. Team Better Bettors (FastFalcon05 and kaonashi1) takes the last spot on the team leaderboard.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=2
---
Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

Ngamer
and then after that good Rikku showing I'm not even sure Frog wins the Square SFF

I don't think there could be any Chrono Trigger/Kingdom Hearts SFF.

And we're in the top 10 already, cool :)


Xuxon
Er... I hate to not give you credit for realizing this, and maybe I'm misunderstanding your interpretation, but that was your flawed method in reverse. So your flawed method giving abnormally low scores to the weakest character, in reverse, gives the character a relatively high x-stat value.

Actually I'm still not sure what you're saying? Also those numbers added to like 112.5%.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery