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SC2k7 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 2
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/29/2007 10:52:10 PM | Message Detail
Leebo86 | Posted 9/29/2007 10:36:12 PM | message detail
Is there any page keeping track of team stats like top 5 finishes and days on the leaderboard?


Nope, never got myself to do it...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/29/2007 11:29:55 PM | Message Detail
There's no page, but here's the daily top 5 info for this contest and lifetime:

We Used To Be Good? --- This contest: (0,1,0,3,2) => 6 --- Total: (4,4,1,4,4) => 17
Predestined Divination --- This contest: (1,1,1,1,1) => 5 --- Total: (1,5,6,5,2) => 19
Happy Happyists --- This contest: (1,0,1,0,1) => 3 --- Total: (5,3,1,3,6) => 18
Jigglypuff --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,1) => 2 --- Total: (0,4,3,5,3) => 15
Klonoa Alliance --- This contest: (0,1,0,1,1) => 3 --- Total: (3,3,4,3,5) => 18
Battle Royale --- This contest: (0,1,0,2,0) => 3 --- Total: (1,3,3,4,2) => 13
SPO*N --- This contest: (1,0,3,0,0) => 4 --- Total: (6,3,5,0,2) => 16
mvp's --- This contest: (3,3,2,1,0) => 9 --- Total: (7,7,4,7,3) => 28
Drunkadelict Armadillos --- This contest: (1,2,3,0,0) => 6 --- Total: (2,6,4,2,1) => 15
Awesome --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (1,0,1,0,1) => 3
Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA --- This contest: (1,2,0,0,1) => 4 --- Total: (6,5,1,3,2) => 17
Rage of Warcraft --- This contest: (1,2,0,0,0) => 3 --- Total: (4,4,2,1,1) => 12
The Council of Two --- This contest: (2,0,1,0,0) => 3 --- Total: (5,1,1,0,1) => 8
Jagermeister --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
Big Black Wangs --- This contest: (1,0,2,2,2) => 7 --- Total: (1,0,2,2,2) => 7
Los Gonzalez --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
The Shy Teds --- This contest: (2,0,0,0,0) => 2 --- Total: (2,0,0,0,0) => 2
Eltbus --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
The X Crewstaters --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
omgcelticscouldmaketheplayoffs --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
StifledSera --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
T-REX --- This contest: (1,0,0,1,4) => 6 --- Total: (1,0,0,1,4) => 6
Better Bettors --- This contest: (1,3,1,0,1) => 6 --- Total: (1,3,1,0,1) => 6
Vector Industries --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,1) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,1) => 1
Elitist Clique Members --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
High Society --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1
Indomitable Force --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
Boondock Saints --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
Account Bettors --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
DragonBellZ --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Ice Cream --- This contest: (1,0,1,1,1) => 4 --- Total: (1,0,1,1,1) => 4
It's An Upset! And You're On Your Own --- This contest: (0,0,1,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,1,0,0) => 1

(continued)
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/29/2007 11:30:02 PM | Message Detail
Fodder --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Of Wolf and Man --- This contest: (0,0,0,2,0) => 2 --- Total: (0,0,0,2,0) => 2
LADS --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
OH IT'S NESS --- This contest: (1,1,1,0,2) => 5 --- Total: (1,1,1,0,2) => 5
lol xstats --- This contest: (0,0,1,0,1) => 2 --- Total: (0,0,1,0,1) => 2
Discovery Channel --- This contest: (0,0,2,0,1) => 3 --- Total: (0,0,2,0,1) => 3
ISS GON RAIN --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Jinjo! --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Helmasaur King --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,2) => 2 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,2) => 2
Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games! --- This contest: (2,0,0,0,1) => 3 --- Total: (2,0,0,0,1) => 3
Hyperion --- This contest: (1,0,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (1,0,0,0,0) => 1
Paraswirlsion --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1
free shipping, can't beat that! --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
magical innuendo pirates with guitars --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1
ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs --- This contest: (1,1,1,1,0) => 4 --- Total: (1,1,1,1,0) => 4
Silesia --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
C.R.E.A.M. --- This contest: (1,1,0,1,0) => 3 --- Total: (1,1,0,1,0) => 3
'Raider Crusaders --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
We Love the Village People --- This contest: (1,1,0,0,1) => 3 --- Total: (1,1,0,0,1) => 3
We Love the Bee Gees --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Jesus Wants Our Nuts --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Two-Faced Gorons --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
One-Two Punch --- This contest: (0,1,0,2,2) => 5 --- Total: (0,1,0,2,2) => 5
We Love Blondie --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
1+1 = 3 --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Ghost Cat --- This contest: (0,0,1,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,1,0,0) => 1
We Love the B-52s --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
The Amazing Question Marks --- This contest: (0,1,5,0,0) => 6 --- Total: (0,1,5,0,0) => 6
We Love Aqua --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,1,0,0,0) => 1
We Love t.A.T.u --- This contest: (2,0,0,1,0) => 3 --- Total: (2,0,0,1,0) => 3
We Love Milli Vanilli --- This contest: (0,1,0,0,1) => 2 --- Total: (0,1,0,0,1) => 2
We Love the Backstreet Boys --- This contest: (1,0,0,0,0) => 1 --- Total: (1,0,0,0,0) => 1
We Love N-Sync --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
Dartboard --- This contest: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1 --- Total: (0,0,0,1,0) => 1
We Love Vanilla Ice --- This contest: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0 --- Total: (0,0,0,0,0) => 0
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: ShatteredElysium | Posted: 9/30/2007 12:21:15 AM | Message Detail
High five BZer0!

We really need Riku to show that devastating KH day vote though. I'm guessing he's crapping all over everyones predictions today though so it isn't too bad.
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 9/30/2007 12:22:32 AM | Message Detail
What's that? Tied for most 1st place predictions?

"aw yeah"
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
From: BZer0 | Posted: 9/30/2007 5:14:38 AM | Message Detail
Hell yeah! ^5 SE!

I guess we just skipped that 2nd place and went straight to 1st. That's okay too, I guess. ^_^
---
CBVI: 81/108
Next: Ryu H. > Riku > Roxas/Haseo
From: creativename | Posted: 9/30/2007 8:58:55 PM | Message Detail
Forgot to adjust my picks cause of the Giants game. Would've brought Squall/Aeris down a bit. Let's see what happens here.

Also Osi had 6 times as many sacks as the Mets did runs...awesome :)
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: Iubaris | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:03:20 PM | Message Detail
Hey, it's my first top 5 of the contest!
---
It's iubaris, not Lubaris.
Bracket: 79/112; Oracle: 76th
From: creativename | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:15:32 PM | Message Detail
So I'm looking at the results for last match, and I'm like, "Wow, I had no idea my prediction was so godawful"

But I looked closer and it's recording me putting Hayabusa at 25% instead of 35%. Probably because that's what I predicted for SF Ryu.

You should probably check this for other people at some point (just quickly run through whoever's preds were way off from adding to 100% maybe)
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:46:58 PM | Message Detail
Creative, can you link me to the post where you had your prediction?
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:50:02 PM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=38483977&message=422967232

lol wate i'm not creative
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:51:19 PM | Message Detail
124) AlecTrevelyan006 Haseo 155.00% Riku 37.50% Roxas 15.00% Ryu Hayabusa 32.50% 7.01

XFD

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
From: ActJef1077 | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:57:20 PM | Message Detail
nice Alec

---
Call me Jeff Official midget of The Book Club
If you paint a W on each of your buttcheeks and do cartwheels it will say WoW MoM WoW! -C Bar
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:00:02 PM | Message Detail
Match # 28 Results
Ryu Hayabusa 45.80%
Riku 27.24%
Roxas 17.67%
Haseo 9.29%

Ryu Hayabusa made himself the star of round 1 by beating Riku and Roxas combined, when he was expected to lose to Riku. 64 Oracles had Riku > Ryu while 45 had Ryu > Riku. 5 had Riku > Roxas, 1 had Roxas > Ryu, and three insane people had Haseo advancing (in different configurations). The consensus predictions were Haseo - 11.98%; Riku - 34.68%; Roxas - 20.27%; Hayabusa - 33.96%. The average score was 43.01 points.

Best Five Picks:
1) SF_Clowns - Haseo 12.45% - Riku 26.35% - Roxas 12.45% - Ryu Hayabusa 48.75% (+46.94)
2) Darkash - Haseo 10.28% - Riku 31.07% - Roxas 19.37% - Ryu Hayabusa 39.28% (+46.74)
3) Paratroopa1 - Haseo 11.38% - Riku 27.32% - Roxas 22.10% - Ryu Hayabusa 39.20% (+46.70)
4) Ayvuir - Haseo 9.70% - Riku 25.29% - Roxas 23.82% - Ryu Hayabusa 39.19% (+46.22)
5) Iubaris - Haseo 12.89% - Riku 29.56% - Roxas 19.32% - Ryu Hayabusa 38.23% (+46.21)

SF_Clowns had the best prediction, thanks to being one of only two people who had Ryu above 45% (the other was IhatethisCPU, who would have been first by a mile if he'd switched his Roxas and Haseo predictions). Darkash gets his first top 5 of this contest with the #2 prediction. Paratroopa has the third best pick, followed by Ayvuir - this is the second top 5 for each of them. Iubaris gets his first top 5 in this, his first contest with a fifth place pick.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=28

Current Leaderboard:
1) The n00b Avenger - 1302.34
2) Master Moltar - 1297.81
3) creativename - 1296.55
4) supdawg - 1295.34
5) Haste2 - 1294.71

The top three spots remain the same today. Supdawg returns to the leaderboard by jumping past Haste2 and MegatokyoEd. Haste2 moves down to fifth. Right now the rest of the top 10 are MegatokyoEd, smitelf (who's quietly been doing consistently well this contest), DSRage, Ngamer, and Lieutenant Kettch

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=28
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:00:07 PM | Message Detail
Top Team Scores:
1) Battle Royale - 91.34 (Darkash: +46.74 / Heroic Viktor: +44.60)
2) One-Two Punch - 90.70 (th3l3fty: +44.94 / yazzy14: +45.76)
3) Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA - 89.99 (Janus5000: +45.15 / KleenexTissue50: +44.84)
3) Rage of Warcraft - 89.99 (War13104: +43.85 / DSRage: +46.14)
5) We Love N-Sync - 89.93 (freac: +0.00 / SF_Clowns: +46.94)

Yesterday was a tough day for us poor Oraclers and the team scores took a hit. Team Battle Royale grab yesterday's best pick for their 4th Top 5 while team One-Two Punch take 2nd for the second straight day, their 6th Top 5. They were the only two team to score over 90 points as Teams BwG < JENOVA and Rage of Warcraft tie for 3rd by barely missing the mark. And RoW pulled it off despite their predictions adding up to only 190%! Some kind of handicap they'll argue >_> Finally, SF_Clowns leads his bad music taste and his team to a first Top 5 appearance this season with his #1 prediction.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=28

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 2587.18
2) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 2579.91
3) Team Big Black Wangs (Master Moltar / Explicit Content) - 2579.51
4) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 2579.02
5) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 2574.99

It's as if those last two days didn't mean anything. Team mvp's barely edge the Big Black Wangs to take back 2nd place. Not far behind, Rage of Warcraft ride on their Top 5 to push the hosts' team back down in 5th place. Those five teams know this place as they have spent a combined total of 275 days on the leaderboard. And I'm not even talking about the leaders anymore, they can't even be bothered to look back at this point...

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=28
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:07:21 PM | Message Detail
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 9/30/2007 9:51:19 PM | Message Detail | #312124) AlecTrevelyan006 Haseo 155.00% Riku 37.50% Roxas 15.00% Ryu Hayabusa 32.50% 7.01

XFD


That actually was his prediction too, not a script error.

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=38375497&message=21464
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=38375497&message=21493
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:08:55 PM | Message Detail
Pretty stict. It's obvious it was a typo and he meant 15% though. Can't you throw him a bone on that one? Well... I guess you have to draw the line somewhere or else everyone will want you to cut them some slack. His fault for being careless I guess.
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:19:33 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'd also vote to fix it because its an obvious typo.
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:20:57 PM | Message Detail
This is ridiculous, it was an obvious typo and now his score and our team score is crap because of it. Our team would have been 37 points better off had his prediction not counted at all.

It's not even a matter of cheating, it's not like we're gonna see a massive amount of "typo" predictions that people "fix" after the match or something now. He obviously meant 15% and the other predictions add up to 85% which is proof enough.

So please give Alec the benefit of the doubt here.
---
SC2k7: 53/76, tied for 1402nd
Today's Pick: Ness > Liquid Snake
From: creativename | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:21:43 PM | Message Detail
lol wate i'm not creative

Heh thanks n00b :)

When I first saw that Ryu 25% the Ryu/Ryu hiccup didn't even occur to me, I got a bad feeling and thought I'd make some huge typo, even though I always re-check my math to add to 100. Was glad to see that wasn't the case.

And wow, that sucks for AlecTrevelyan006. I'd be inclined to let this slide, since it was so blatant. I mean, if this had happened to someone in the top 5, there'd be a lot more pressure to let it slide. I think maybe everyone deserves one freebie (if the case is so obvious), and beyond that any and all mistakes you're screwed. But, it's a judgement call. He should've reread his post (though we all get lazy now and again).
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:26:07 PM | Message Detail
Also predictions under 0% and over 100% should probably be capped at those levels anyway. Looks like he's getting lots of negative points here.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: octoinky | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:41:36 PM | Message Detail
I'll jump on the "that should be changed" bandwagon. It is obvious, unlike somebody's predictions adding to the 95-105 range, where they just made a mental error (outside of a typo). Heck, it'd be one thing if he wrote 55% and keep that in there because it makes sense, but 155%? I think we know what that prediction, in all truth, was.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/30/2007 10:53:50 PM | Message Detail
Concerning the 155%....

Also predictions under 0% and over 100% should probably be capped at those levels anyway. Looks like he's getting lots of negative points here.
That's something that could be done....it's clearly something that never occurred to me as a possibility before though >_>
The spirit of the scoring system leads me to believe that penalty for a single char should be capped at 100% or something but I'm not fixing that today since it has no incidence on the "top" standings and it's rather complicated....

And for those calling for leniency, the mother of all mental slips would like to have a word with you:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=31311614&message=14696
leading to:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=total&match=44

As far as I'm concerned the typo is there to stay, we've had enough precedents and it's crazy for the hosts to start assuming stuff when people predict....DSRage deserves better than that...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 9/30/2007 11:08:56 PM | Message Detail
I run a very tight ship and am generally anti-leniency in mistake cases like this. But even I would cut Alec some slack here just this once, and enter that as a 15 percent prediction. Yeah he should have rechecked, but the combination of adding to exactly 100 and that pick being SO far over 100 makes it clear that this was an honest mistake, not someone trying to pull something on us. So yeah, I'd let him off with a warning.

Also I second creative's "auto cap an individual pick at 100%" idea, which would at least stop issues like this from having quite so large an effect if they ever happened again.

---
The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 11:11:03 PM | Message Detail
Here's my take - we can't apply interpretation to people's predictions because there's no clear line between what's "obvious" and what's not. The policy at least since I've been running this is that what you post is what counts. I think we should (and will) cap each character at 100% and 0% because it's impossible for a character to go outside that bound, but doing anything beyond that requires us to make a judgment of your intentions.

Also, I warned him about his mistake soon after he made it, and he had almost a week before the match where he could have checked his predictions on the website, so there was plenty of chance for him to fix it.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 11:13:29 PM | Message Detail
Yeah he should have rechecked, but the combination of adding to exactly 100 and that pick being SO far over 100 makes it clear that this was an honest mistake, not someone trying to pull something on us. So yeah, I'd let him off with a warning.

Just to try to put you in our shoes here... what would you do if he had posted:

* 145%
* 105%
* 51%
* 1.5%

If the answer to any of those is "nothing", then why does he get more slack for making a bigger mistake?
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/30/2007 11:14:38 PM | Message Detail
I'm going to manually change the prediction to 100% however, and from now on the script will count anything over 100 as 100.00.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 7:46:43 AM | Message Detail
But he didn't make any of those picks. Every single person here can easily see that it was meant to be 15%, and everyone but you guys think it should be changed. That alone should be enough this time.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 10/1/2007 7:56:29 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 9:11:56 AM | Message Detail
But he didn't make any of those picks. Every single person here can easily see that it was meant to be 15%, and everyone but you guys think it should be changed. That alone should be enough this time.

So what are we supposed to do when someone does make a mistake like that, after setting a precedent that we fix people's mistakes? Plenty of other people have made mistakes of not adding up to 100%, and we haven't fixed those - I don't think it's fair for us to fix Alec's and no one else's.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/1/2007 9:14:41 AM | Message Detail
Well there's a difference between not adding up to 100 between all the picks and then having a single pick that's over 100 itself. No one in their right mind would pick a participant to get a % that's literally impossible. And I think that's a nice point to draw the line. I mean, it's one thing if someone just makes a really stupid looking judgement, like in DSrage's case the other year, but in this case where someone picks something that is literally impossible, you can cut them some slack in those cases.
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/1/2007 9:16:51 AM | Message Detail
Actually, screw it. Just as Alec himself what he wants. If I were put into his position I would personally just accept my mistake and move on. If he decides to do that instead of petitioning for a change or something there's no reason to pursue this
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
From: IhatethisCPU | Posted: 10/1/2007 9:27:05 AM | Message Detail
SF_Clowns had the best prediction, thanks to being one of only two people who had Ryu above 45% (the other was IhatethisCPU, who would have been first by a mile if he'd switched his Roxas and Haseo predictions

*The sound of my slamming my head into the keyboard is heard...*
---
"You people scare me, please stay away from my home, if you don't wanna get me down, just leave the presents and then leave me alone."
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 10/1/2007 10:06:56 AM | Message Detail
Have you ever had a mistake like this before that you could tell FOR SURE what the person obviously meant and not reversed it? Sure I can see not reversing it if someone's math added up to 110 by accident (and not typo). And those kind of predictions don't hurt them very much anyway. This is just ridiculously obvious that he meant 15%. All the other predictions add up to 85. He added one extra 5 to his 15% Haseo prediction by typo error, not mathematical error. It is obvious beyond ALL reasonable doubt that he meant 15%. I could see you having a case if his other predictions added up to 90% or something, but you're just getting overly technical about this IMO.
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SC2k7: 53/76, tied for 1402nd
Today's Pick: Ness > Liquid Snake
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/1/2007 12:27:08 PM | Message Detail
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/1/2007 10:06:56 AM | message detail
Have you ever had a mistake like this before that you could tell FOR SURE what the person obviously meant and not reversed it?


That thing I posted up there...
There was a change to Mega Man with 62.34% 8 minutes before that, there's never been a doubt in our minds that he never meant to go with Ryu but that's a can of worms we cannot open.

How the backlash is 10 times bigger than with DSRage's slip I'll never understand.....

Oh and I suggest we close the poll right now before the day vote absolutely kills my prediction.....
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/1/2007 12:28:20 PM | Message Detail
After discussing the matter some with KM and hearing what Kax has had to say, they've won me over. The important thing here isn't Alec (who had fair warning, a week to change his pick, and a teammate who, if he's really that concerned about their score, ought to have been watching his back), it's that a precedent would be set. Kax and KM wouldn't know when they have to play babysitter and push a number back to something that "makes sense," or when it's a "small enough mistake" that it should be allowed to stand.

Capping at 100 makes good sense though, and Alec should be happy that they went retroactive and applied that much of a change for him. Since it is, after all, 55% more than he deserved.

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/1/2007 12:31:33 PM | Message Detail
it's that a precedent would be set

What precedent is that? That changes are possible when the percentage is over 100%? Not everything has to be seen as precedent, it's just being used in this one specific instance.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
From: ShatteredElysium | Posted: 10/1/2007 12:41:00 PM | Message Detail
Whilst it is obviously a mistake, he was given ample time to rectify it and even warned about it by one of the admins. It isn't that it makes a huge difference to the leaderboard, it's that it sets a precedent. If they allow it this time then they will have to allow for it if it occurs again and in future it could have larger implication on the leaderboard with the numbers on a smaller scale.

It's for the same reason they couldn't allow my late prediction despite it being out of my control and I completely understand why they did it. It would have opened Pandora's Box if they had allowed my prediction to stand. I lost 72 places on the leaderboard for my mistake and as a result I'm 86th now.

DSRage did a similar thing to Alec and dropped 21 places from second place three-quarters of the way through the contest.

I know it feels bad now but it could have been worse so try not to beat yourself up about it.
From: ShatteredElysium | Posted: 10/1/2007 12:47:48 PM | Message Detail
Well the only way I could see it being abused (although admittedly I haven't thought that much about it) is someone deliberately makes a three digit prediction on a tricky match and then has a choice over which of those three numbers was actually a typo.

For example they could make a prediction of 326% on a a contestant they think will get a result somewhere in the low to mid 30's. They then selectively ditch either a 2 or a 6 depending on what would give them a better result. Should the contestant really underperform they could even ditch the 3 to get 26% although that would be harder to cover up mathematically. They would also have to deliberately make sure that none of the three numbers 32, 26 or 36 make the overall total equal 100 and then just put it down to them being bad at maths.

Farfetched yes, but certainly possible.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/1/2007 1:01:32 PM | Message Detail
Thing is, people are arguing that the change should be made now because it's clear, which it wouldn't be in that hypothetical situation. Any "precedent" made now wouldn't apply.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
From: Camden | Posted: 10/1/2007 2:06:54 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 4:33:51 PM | Message Detail
Thing is, people are arguing that the change should be made now because it's clear, which it wouldn't be in that hypothetical situation. Any "precedent" made now wouldn't apply.

One big problem is that it's unfair if we fix some mistakes and not others. If we can come up with an actual rule for when things should be changed (such as predictions > 100% are lowered to 100%), that's one thing. But there's no clear line between what's obvious and what isn't, so we can't just fix things that are "obvious" mistakes.
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 4:48:14 PM | Message Detail
Woah, I have a really old sig on this computer...
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6!
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/1/2007 4:51:32 PM | Message Detail
Computer? Sigs are stored on the CNet server and tied to user accounts, you crazy person!

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/1/2007 5:50:46 PM | Message Detail
GameFOX <__<
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/1/2007 5:52:00 PM | Message Detail
GameFOX <__<
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 5:55:30 PM | Message Detail
GameFOX <__<
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R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/1/2007 5:56:55 PM | Message Detail
GameFOX <__<
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/1/2007 6:02:15 PM | Message Detail
XD

Not even sure what happened there.
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/1/2007 9:08:00 PM | Message Detail
Grr, I'm losing precious hundredths of a point as the poll goes on. <_<
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
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