I think people tend to overestimate the security of the leaders. Just look at creativename in sc2k5 (10 point lead at this point in the contest) or Bananaquest in spc2k4 (17 point lead with only 9 matches to go). Another way to look at it is if they gained the leads they have over 35 days, another 28 is plenty of time to lose them.
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R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007