I don't understand the people who think the huge penalty for picking the wrong winner is a good thing. Unless you believe that Frog /w 60 is better than Master Chief /w 50 (which I find ridiculous, personally), let's at least throw 40-x out of the window =P

I'm a big fan of a hybrid system...
50-(ABS(50-Result))-ABS(Result-Prediction) where Result is the character's score and Prediction is, well, obvious. [It could be read (Result - Prediction) too]

That way, on the losing side, you'd get a 50-x on a 50/50 match, 45-x on a 55/45 match and 40-x on a 60/40, etc... It would prevent ridiculous penalties in very close matches while allowing shake ups in matches that aren't that close when people make awful calls...
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place