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SC2k5 - Oracle Challenge - Round 5
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:29:49 PM | Message Detail
Welcome to the Oracle Challenge, the contest that tests your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!

The Challenge

For each match in the GameFAQs Summer Contest you need to pick a winner and predict the percentage of the vote they will receive. New participants are still being accepted until at least the end of round 3 (please indicate that you are new and make a minimum of three picks).

Post your predictions in this topic, one prediction per line. Your predictions must be in one of these formats:

Link with 85%
Link 55.13%
Link over CATS with 67.55%
Link - 77.5%

Please use one of these formats, and always remember to include the % sign. Do not use other formats such as "Link w/" or "Link: ".

The Scoring

For each match you will earn points based on how close your guess was to the actual outcome. Scoring is cumulative and the winner of the Oracle Challenge will be the person with the most points at the end of the final match. For each match you can earn anywhere between 0 and 50 points. This depends on whether you correctly picked the winner and how close your guess was to the actual percentage. The scoring system works as follows:

Correctly choosing the winner earns you 50-x points.
Incorrectly choosing the winner earns you 45-2x points.
(Where x is the difference between your guess and the character's actual percentage.)


Your guess: Link with 65%
My guess: CATS with 55%
Actual result: Link 60%, CATS 40%
Your points: 50 - (65-60) = 45 points
My points: 45 - 2*(55-40) = 15 points

Bonus points are awarded for the closest five guesses each match but do not factor into the overall scoring. They are used only as a side ranking. Participants will also be ranked by average score from time to time.

The Rules

It is necessary to have a few rules to keep the challenge running smoothly. They are:

1) A valid entry consists of a clear pick and prediction (i.e. Link with 85.03%). The prediction must be greater than or equal to 50.00%. No alts, please. All predictions should be made with your main account to make things easier on me. If you need to change accounts please let me know.
2) Your prediction does not need to be different from everybody else’s guess. However, intentional and continuous prediction mimicry will not be allowed.
3) All predictions must be made one full hour before the usual start time of that match’s poll (approx. 2:00am EST, 1:00am CST, 11:00pm PST). Predictions submitted after this time will not be counted or may be subject to penalty. No predictions will be accepted after a poll has started, regardless of the start time.
4) You may change your prediction for any match at any time, subject to the rules above. Please indicate clearly that this is a change to a previous entry.
5) You may not delete any post in a prediction topic (if you do, please post immediately after to explain the deletion). This is to prevent abuse of the above rule (and to reduce confusion).
6) You may predict matches in advance if you need to. Please tell me beforehand so we can arrange this.
7) I reserve the right to disqualify a pick for any justifiable reason.
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:30:08 PM | Message Detail

I'm now accepting predictions for every match in which the competitors are already fixed:

Crono vs Vincent Valentine
Sonic the Hedgehog vs Mega Man

Mario vs Solid Snake

PLEASE hold off on predicting the second round 5 match at least until the start of Sonic/Mega Man. If you really need to make a prediction in advance, let me know.
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:32:05 PM | Message Detail
Two people emailed me predictions.

heroic_slb's predictions:
Crono with 53.12%
Mega Man with 56.05%
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:32:28 PM | Message Detail
Rpglord95's prediction:

Crono over Vincent 58.28%
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:40:39 PM | Message Detail
Whoa whoa, hold up a minute... Vincent ~= Master Chief now? Are we talking about the same MC who was nearly made a fool of by... Donkey Kong? The same MC who could barely manage to double... CATS? Sorry, but I don't see an FF7 star who's already proven himself against Contest forces like StarCraft, DMC, and FF9 to be of the same tier. Vince is quite strong, and with CT being so down this year, I don't see any SFF happening here. I'm going with

Crono 54.92%

EDIT - Reposted. Ha, what timing!

Ngamer's Contest Archives:
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:44:38 PM | Message Detail
Crono with 54.55%
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
I did pretty good in the guru challenge but yoblazer did slightly better.
From: Camden | Posted: 9/14/2005 10:51:46 PM | Message Detail
Crono with 55.99%
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't. -Douglas Adams
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:05:50 PM | Message Detail
New pick:

Mario with 56.00%

Tomorrow's match is bothering me...a lot more than it should be. I know that 2k3 was a strong year for Square, and that (in theory) Master Chief is a tougher out today than he was back then...but Crono 2k5 barely outperforming Aeris 2k3 can't be a good thing, can it? And we've seen FF7 (the game) benefit from a bit of SFF against CT (the game) in the I just overthinking this match way too much? There would be virtually nothing logical about a Vincent victory tomorrow...but then again, I have zero to lose in this contest as of this point, outside of a top twenty finish...

Okay, it's two AM, and I'm exhausted (yet wired at the same time from coffee) right now, I have no problem with doing something ridiculously stupid. I'm gambling on crappy match pic factor + underdog factor + FF7 > CT factor + a significant Crono drop from last year...

*frown* Crono should really be able to manage sixty percent in this match, shouldn't he? Oh well, I blame CATS, Master Chief, and Donkey Kong for this pick (and conveniently ignore Squall, Dante, and Knuckles in the same breath).


Vincent Valentine with 50.00%
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:16:23 PM | Message Detail
Ok, I'm not going to change my pick for Crono by much, so this is rather a tag...

Crono by 54.49%

Oh, seems to become more of a real post, one more change (as I won't be around tomorrow) and a new one:

Mega Man by 52.64%

Mario by 57.82%
SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:21:12 PM | Message Detail

Crono with 63.47%
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 9/14/2005 11:32:52 PM | Message Detail
Mario with 58.92%
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: RPGLord95 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:25:26 AM | Message Detail
Mario over Snake with 55.59%
FFXI: Asura: Rpglord 75Drk/67Mnk
SC2K5 102/112, 29th, Current Pick: Crono > Vincent
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:33:28 AM | Message Detail
Why the heck did I write by...?

(Re-post for those that aren't too late:)

Mega Man with 52.64%
Mario with 57.82%

SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:36:40 AM | Message Detail
Match #58 Results:
Solid Snake 50.59%
Bowser 49.41%

Solid Snake, the man who makes the impossible possible, managed to pull through once more in spite of an impossibly bad picture. Bowser came closer than anyone ever has to breaking the Noble Nine, but in the end Snake is able to hold off the last serious challenge of the year to that elite group, and also to make the final four for his first time ever. Today there were 59 predictions for Snake and 8 predictions for Bowser. The consensus was Snake with 53.08% and the average score was 46.38 points.

Best Five Picks:
1) meche313 - Solid Snake 50.60% (+49.99)
2) StopPokingMe - Solid Snake 50.50% (+49.91)
3) Darkash - Solid Snake 50.79% (+49.80)
4) Master Moltar - Solid Snake 50.84% (+49.75)
5) Alanna82 - Solid Snake 51.00% (+49.59)

Meche takes today's top prediction, missing a perfect prediction by 0.01 points. This is his second top prediction and third top 5 of the contest. StopPokingMe gets the second place prediction, his sixth top 5 of the contest. Darkash, who was recently asking about the record for top fives in a contest, has now tied that record with 11. He was leading in top 5s for quite a while, but he's really been on a tear lately, with 3 top 5s in the last 4 days. Master Moltar gets the fourth best prediction, for his fourth top 5 of the contest, and Alanna gets fifth, also for her fourth top 5.

Complete match ranking:

Current Leaderboard:
1) Xuxon - 2554.83
2) Master Moltar - 2552.59
3) StopPokingMe - 2545.78
4) Haste2 - 2543.39
5) creativename - 2539.07

Xuxon remains in first for the third consecutive day, but he aims high and allows everyone else to regain some ground. Master Moltar is still in second, 2.24 points behind Xuxon. StopPokingMe moves up from fourth to third today with his excellent prediction, switching places with Haste2. Creativename remains in fifth.

Full standings:

Round 3 Leaderboard (Final):
1) Sephirot1 Returns - 379.69
2) Dilated Chemist - 378.88
3) outback - 374.54
4) Xuxon - 368.61
5) Duffer11 - 367.16

Sorry this is two days late. In the final standings for round 3, Sephirot1 Returns had the highest score - not surprising if you remember the two #1 and one #2 predictions he had over those 8 matches. Dilated Chemist took second for round 3, an impressive feat considering that all of his predictions were made before the end of round 1. Outback finished third, followed by Xuxon and Duffer11.

Full round 3 standings:

Second Half Leaderboard:
1) Yesmar - 1189.38
2) kawaiifan - 1183.37
3) StopPokingMe - 1183.12
4) Garsha - 1179.88
5) Master Moltar - 1178.80

Since the end of round 2, Yesmar has managed to move to the top of the second half leaderboard (which includes everything from round 2 onward). Kawaiifan, who was the round 2 winner, is still high in the second half standings, in second place. StopPokingMe is 1/4 of a point behind her in third place. Garsha follows in fourth, and Master Moltar is in fifth. This leaderboard really shows some of the trends in the contest, such as Master Moltar and StopPokingMe climbing to the top of the overall standings in the second half.

Full second half standings:
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano from Operation Shadow for SC2k6
From: octoinky | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:51:57 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, I dont even know if Crono will win today, so I dont know if Crono will be in it NEXT round.. This is tough, I'll be out of town through the end of the main bracket. Kaxon, could I post "if so and so wins.. " or just take my best guess at who'll be in the match, and if they aren't there I'll nab a 0? heh. Bad timing, college movin on saturday and a 2 day drive.
From: ps2rulezzz | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:32:20 AM | Message Detail
Megaman with 50.03%
Mario with 57.10%
190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy
From: jonthomson | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:48:54 AM | Message Detail
Mario with 56.45%

And I could really do with making a prediction for the other one:

If Sonic wins : Crono with 53.58%
If Mega Man wins : Mega Man with 51.27%
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 9/15/2005 6:59:23 AM | Message Detail
Mario with 55.83%


Mega Man with 50.27%

RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 101/112 (Kefka, Magus (x3), Ocelot, Tidus)
From: IhatethisCPU | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:07:24 AM | Message Detail
Sonic with 53.72%
Mario with 60.82%

All work and no play makes sure CPU doesn't accidentally set fire to things.
I kill topics ! ^_^
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:19:41 AM | Message Detail
Megaman with 51.01%
Uh oh, they started moving their legs back and forth while standing in place. You're about to fight aren't you? - My friend watching me play FFT
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:55:03 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 55.55%
Mario with 59%
Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: Darkash | Posted: 9/15/2005 11:57:49 AM | Message Detail
Wow. I rule. Go me! Let's see if I can set some new records, eh?

Mega Man with 51.24%

Wow, I really have no clue here. I hope no one takes my prediction as gospel. I'm pleading the fifth on this one.
1st place in scientist pg's TLoZ MM riddle contest!
12th in the SpC2k4!
From: Heroic Luc | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:12:41 PM | Message Detail
Mario over Snake with 57.75%

Mario has just been on a roll this year.
I'm trying to save the world.... really I am....
Alanna82 at work
From: Garsha | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:16:15 PM | Message Detail
Change: Mega Man with 50.93%
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic:
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:17:43 PM | Message Detail

Mario with 62.92%

HUGE prediction, I know.
From: Camden | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:27:44 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 53.99%
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't. -Douglas Adams
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/15/2005 12:57:43 PM | Message Detail
Woah, that was one hell of a prediction for last match. Best so far for me in this, great!

New picks:

Round 4:
Sonic with 53.5%

Final Four!:
Mario with 57%
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Lagoona | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:45:41 PM | Message Detail
.Last change:

Mega Man with 52.44%
SC2k5 Prediction Percentage Challenge:
From: BigtoeOfJebus | Posted: 9/15/2005 1:50:23 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 52%

Mario with 57%
Nominate Jay Solano for SC2k6!
*Commits harakiri*
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:04:07 PM | Message Detail
Sonic over Mega Man with 53.45%

Mario over Snake with 56.03%

QUESTION: I will be gone this weekend, so I won't know the winner of Sonic Vs. Mega Man until the day of Crono Vs. The Winner of That Match. Would it be okay if I just posted my predictions for both possible combinations tonight?
"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:19:02 PM | Message Detail
Round 5:
Mario with 60.00%
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:21:43 PM | Message Detail
Mario with 57.37%
Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 89/112 --- Rank: T-2531
From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 9/15/2005 2:25:26 PM | Message Detail
Mario with 58.49%

LOL more like Samus ArOWNED
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:22:25 PM | Message Detail
Mario over Solid Snake with 56.97%
makeyourchance: Yes I do! It's Samsonite.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:25:07 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 52%
Mario with 57%
From: TenkoStar17 | Posted: 9/15/2005 3:41:17 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man - 51.00%
"Tenko sleeping on me = Cowboy Ackbar! (proof inside)" - perdevious
Level 5: "Digital Watch" (560 points)
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:11:58 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 52.88%
Mario with 62.76%
"If it bleeds we can kill it" - My governer, Arnold S.
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:19:12 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 53%
Mario with 55%
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:26:24 PM | Message Detail
Mario with 55.00%
Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 89/112 --- Rank: T-2531
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:30:45 PM | Message Detail

Sonic with 50.05%

Mario with 57.33%
RIP Samus: Mario, you better take down Seph.
Crono vs. Vincent - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono (92/112)
From: SuperSmash Master | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:31:25 PM | Message Detail
Mario - 63.19%
"This Pina Colada is REALLY GOOD!" - Decline of Video Gaming
Gamefaqs: Where Vivi, Frog, Kirby, and Shadow can lose to girls.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:32:01 PM | Message Detail
Round 4:
Mega Man with 53.75%
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: PeaceOut64 | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:47:27 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man with 51.6%
My goal since I joined the Leafs has always been to have on the ice a team as good as our fans. We have never quite gotten there. Some day we will. - Ken Dryden
From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/15/2005 5:56:27 PM | Message Detail
Mario over Solid Snake with 58%

That will likely change later...

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Alanna82 | Posted: 9/15/2005 6:28:56 PM | Message Detail
Change: Sonic with 50.05%

Yeah, I cant believe I am doing that, but I just had a Sonic Cherry Limeade and it was so good I decided to take a chance.

So if Mega Man wins, blame my drink. (even though its so yummy)
Happiliy married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. "This sig is owned by S Xero"
From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:48:35 PM | Message Detail
Sonic with 50.50%

Round 5:
Mario with 57.57%
Champions of Time and Space: The Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:51:47 PM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 50.28%

Mario 59.00%
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:54:19 PM | Message Detail

Sonic with 50.9%

I don't get why people are actually taking MM's match with Yoshi so serious. Go Sonic!
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:55:26 PM | Message Detail

Mario over snake with 58.43%
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
R.I.P. Magus
From: Menji76 | Posted: 9/15/2005 7:59:04 PM | Message Detail
Mario 58.54%

#1 Gamefaqs Duke fan
"Don't even try to top that Will, I've been thinking of it for a week." ~Carlton
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