creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 6:07:01 AM | message detail
King Morgoth, could you post your x-stat formula here again?

No I can't because that'd be sharing the huge advantage it gives me.
>_>
<_<
lawl x-stats

Assuming A>B>C>D and things are scaled to A's x-stats being 1.000 (since it simplifies so much >_>)
R(A) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + B¬CD + ¬BCD) / 3 + (B¬C¬D + ¬BC¬D + ¬B¬CD) / 2 + ¬B¬C¬D
R(B) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + B¬CD) / 3 + (B¬C¬D + ¬BC¬D + ¬B¬CD) / 2
R(C) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + ¬BCD) / 3 + (¬BC¬D) / 2
R(D) = BCD/4 + (B¬CD + ¬BCD) / 3 + (¬B¬CD) / 2


Kaxon | Posted 10/8/2007 12:49:16 AM | message detail
I think people tend to overestimate the security of the leaders. Just look at creativename in sc2k5 (10 point lead at this point in the contest) or Bananaquest in spc2k4 (17 point lead with only 9 matches to go). Another way to look at it is if they gained the leads they have over 35 days, another 28 is plenty of time to lose them.

creative had to face a much higher variation while BQ lost due to me getting the craziest string of luck and insanity we've ever seen =P This is totally different...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)