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Board: ARCHIVE - SpC2k5 to SC2k6Topic: SC2k7 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 2
From: King Morgoth
Posted: 10/8/2007 7:53:26 PM
creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 6:04:14 PM | message detail
Well it took me a lot longer than I anticipated, but I've put up a generalized percentage estimator using King Morgoth's conditional probability formula.
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48
Doesn't really work for more than about 12 characters, I suppose because the computational order of the set combinatorics starts to get ridiculous at that point.
*applauds*. That should read "the awesome King Morgoth" though but I'll forgive you for now =P.
And yes I figure it gets pretty heavy past 11-12 characters...
King Morgoth, do you have any ideas on working backwards using your formula? Going from actual percentages to 1-on-1 strength estimations?
Ideas? Yes. I mean from a theoretical standpoint I figure it's a bijection from [0,100]^3 <-> a certain finite subset of [0,1]^4. And I've been able to do it for 3-way matches without it looking like total crap. The problem I have with 4-ways is that I come across some pretty creepy algebra and it gets to the point where if I plug the wrong thing I'll just cancel everything and come back to where I started. So I haven't pulled it off...yet
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:58:50 PM | message detail
Now for today- gosh! Weren't we pretty well in agreement that, adjusting for Tifa weirdness on Zamus, Wario ~= Peach? And Meta-Knight we're already seen hold up well on Seph, so basically you're taking out CATS and replacing him with Fox... and people are still picking Seph at 54-55? Yeah yeah, I realize Cloud put up 56, but Seph isn't quite Cloud, and Fox is a good ways ahead of of Ocelot/Marcus.
Cloud impressed us, certainly, but this just seems a bit knee-jerk.
It's all about LFF. This one could go anywhere and it's very hard to figure exactly where votes will go...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
Well it took me a lot longer than I anticipated, but I've put up a generalized percentage estimator using King Morgoth's conditional probability formula.
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48
Doesn't really work for more than about 12 characters, I suppose because the computational order of the set combinatorics starts to get ridiculous at that point.
*applauds*. That should read "the awesome King Morgoth" though but I'll forgive you for now =P.
And yes I figure it gets pretty heavy past 11-12 characters...
King Morgoth, do you have any ideas on working backwards using your formula? Going from actual percentages to 1-on-1 strength estimations?
Ideas? Yes. I mean from a theoretical standpoint I figure it's a bijection from [0,100]^3 <-> a certain finite subset of [0,1]^4. And I've been able to do it for 3-way matches without it looking like total crap. The problem I have with 4-ways is that I come across some pretty creepy algebra and it gets to the point where if I plug the wrong thing I'll just cancel everything and come back to where I started. So I haven't pulled it off...yet
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:58:50 PM | message detail
Now for today- gosh! Weren't we pretty well in agreement that, adjusting for Tifa weirdness on Zamus, Wario ~= Peach? And Meta-Knight we're already seen hold up well on Seph, so basically you're taking out CATS and replacing him with Fox... and people are still picking Seph at 54-55? Yeah yeah, I realize Cloud put up 56, but Seph isn't quite Cloud, and Fox is a good ways ahead of of Ocelot/Marcus.
Cloud impressed us, certainly, but this just seems a bit knee-jerk.
It's all about LFF. This one could go anywhere and it's very hard to figure exactly where votes will go...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
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