Uhh... only one "Team" in our name! >__>

I'll need to fix that <_<
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Hey, ShatteredElysium, have you submitted any predictions yet?
---
caps

Giggs/Cokes is now Team C.R.E.A.M.
---
Jubilant Exuberance

WEBSITE UPGRADE!
www.oraclechallenge.com

Awwww yeah. Things you might care about:
- New and Improved layout that doesn't look so bad after all!
- Removed a bunch of dead/unused links
- Support for the current contest has been added (i.e. you'll now be able to see all 4 predictions for each match, among other things)
- As requested, the Points Above Average data has been added to User Profiles

As with everything else, if you see something that we missed or that isn't working, please tell us!
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

What's the efficiency rating mean? Also, the list of users in user profiles is repeated.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

What's the efficiency rating mean? Also, the list of users in user profiles is repeated.

The Efficiency Rating is basically (How many Top 5's you got)/(How many Top 5's you were expected to get)
If you make a prediction in a match where 100 people are predicting, you're "expected" to get 5/100 = .05 Top 5's for example...

The other thing's been fixed, thank you.
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Woot! I am exactly average at top 5 predictions!
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Name our team "Of Wolf and Man", in case Zylo doesn't mind.
---
Its hard being a wolf when ur surrounded by a herd of sheep. - Mozzezz
Love.

Can't wait for the contest to start now, its been too long. And this is easily the best thing about it, plus the contest itself.
---
I don't like Haley Scarnato

Can you call our team(team 47) Team Silesia for now?
---
Tooi Kono Machi De-"daisuki datta ano uta furui teepu no naka chiisana kizu iro aseta taitoru nijinda yoake"

Can you call our team(team 47) Team Silesia for now?
Sure
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

TEAM UPDATE

Gr. 1
People who made predictions and accept to be teamed randomly:
AmazingKirby
andylt
BeTheMan
Biolizard28 (Suprak, pikaness)
entropyx
Evil_REmade
freac
Gaddswell
jecht
longbladeofhiko
Kaidyn04
Mantyke
marioinblack
MMXcalibur
oneills1
PeaceOut64
Radix
SF_Clowns
somdude04
Starion(Wants Team Dartboard)
supdawg
Taslion (Tombawocxer)

Gr. 2
People who made predictions but have not indicated that they accept any teammate:
DarkLink89
Link versus Cloud

Gr. 3
People who agreed to a random teammate but haven't made predictions yet:
baubeta
consolefreak
jonthomson
NClark128
pikaness
Shoenin_Kakashi
Suprak the Stud
Tom Bombadil

Later tonight, Users in Group 1 will be randomly assigned partners. People in Group 2 that signify that they desire a random partner OR in Group 3 that make predictions will be transfered to Group 1 prior to assignment. Odd number of people?? A random member of Group 2 will be added to Group 1.

*phew*

Teams:
1. Kaxon/King Morgoth - Team We Used To Be Good?
2. Janus5000/KleenexTissue50 - Team Battle with Gilgamesh = J-E-N-O-V-A
3. neonreaper/Sess - Team Jagermeister
4. amyvitality66/raytan7585 - Team Klonoa Alliance
5. Dekar TKB/Haste2 - Team Drunkadelict Armadillos
6. Explicit Content/Master Moltar - Team Big Black Wangs
7. linkhatesganon/ScorpionX3 - Team Los Gonzalez
8. DSRage/War13104 - Team RAGE OF WARCRAFT
9. _Yonex_/Ayvuir - Team The Shy Teds
10. Stingers/Tirofog - Team Eltbus
11. MajinZidane/Smurf - Team The X Crewstaters
12. Alanna82/kawaiifan - Team Jigglypuff
13. BBallman7/LinkLegend27 - Team omgcelticscouldmaketheplayoffs
14. Luis_Sera89/StifledSilence - Team StifledSera
15. TRE/Xcarvengerx - Team ???
16. FastFalcon05/kaonashi1 - Team Better Bettors
17. CrimsonOcean/Lady Ashe - Team Vector Industries
18. Applekidjosh/Jay Lv99 - Team Elitist Clique Members
19. outback/Rodri316 - Team High Society
20. Aprosenf/Draco1214 - Team Indomitable Force
21. satai_delenn/Lopen - Team The Council of Two
22. MaxedOutRyu/yoshifan823 - Team Boondock Saints
23. Sir Chris/yoblazer33 - Team ???
24. Forceful Dragon/SBell0105 - Team DragonBellZ
25. BZer0/ShatteredElysium - Team Ice Cream
26. basmeyer42/ps2rulezzz - Team mvp's
27. GameBopAdv/IhatethisCPU - Team It's An Upset! And You're On Your Own
28. Eeeevil Overlord/Maniac64 - Team Fodder
29. Camden/meche313 - Team Happy Happyists
30. Vlado/Zylo the wolf - Team Of Wolf and Man
31. alpha door/Lagoona - Team LADS
32. Ness26/TheKnightOfNee - Team OH IT'S NESS
33. BlAcK TuRtLe/XxSoulxX - Team lol xstats
34. Jmast7/Leebo86 - Team ?Discovery Channel?
35. Dilated Chemist/Z1mZum - Team Awesome
36. Pats_Dynasty/SuperSmash Master - Team ?ISS GON RAIN?
37. creativename/Ngamer64 - Team Predestined Divination
38. StopPokingMe/ToadYoshi - Team Jinjo! Unless poking objects
39. GrapefruitKing/Xuxon - Team Helmasaur King
40. DpObliVion/WiggumFan267 - Team Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games!
41. Canth/Scythe Marshall - Team Hyperion
42. Paratroopa1/swirldude - Team Paraswirlsion
43. ad00/cyko - Team Free shipping, can't beat that!
44. Darkash/Heroic Viktor - Team Battle Royale
45. Menji76/Seginustemple - Team magical innuendo pirates with guitars
46. Ed Bellis/transience - Team ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs
47. Hartzenan/Tomoyo - Team Silesia
48. cokes/Giggsalot - Team C.R.E.A.M.
49. WhakkoJacko/XIII_rocks - Team ???
50. MegaTokyoEd/Redtooth - Team ???
51. kirbyjump/warning_crazy - Team ???
52. ActJef1077/Weird Kirby Dude - Team SPO*N
53. FigureOfSpeech/Luster Soldier - Team Jesus Wants Our Nuts
54. AlecTrevelyan006/DaruniaTheGoron - Team Two-Faced Gorons
55. th3l3fty/yazzy14 - Team One-Two Punch
56. Ringworm/steve illumina - Team ???

I was looking at my per-contest average, and I do about 2-3% better per pick in summer contests as opposed to the spring ones. Meaning averaging 43ish % instead of 40. So I have a much better shot at this contest than the spring ones, methinks.

GJ
---
http://www.facebook.com/p/Grant_Johnson/9202808

FINAL TEAMS LIST

1. Kaxon/King Morgoth - Team We Used To Be Good?
2. Janus5000/KleenexTissue50 - Team Battle with Gilgamesh = J-E-N-O-V-A
3. neonreaper/Sess - Team Jagermeister
4. amyvitality66/raytan7585 - Team Klonoa Alliance
5. Dekar TKB/Haste2 - Team Drunkadelict Armadillos
6. Explicit Content/Master Moltar - Team Big Black Wangs
7. linkhatesganon/ScorpionX3 - Team Los Gonzalez
8. DSRage/War13104 - Team RAGE OF WARCRAFT
9. _Yonex_/Ayvuir - Team The Shy Teds
10. Stingers/Tirofog - Team Eltbus
11. MajinZidane/Smurf - Team The X Crewstaters
12. Alanna82/kawaiifan - Team Jigglypuff
13. BBallman7/LinkLegend27 - Team omgcelticscouldmaketheplayoffs
14. Luis_Sera89/StifledSilence - Team StifledSera
15. TRE/Xcarvengerx - Team ???
16. FastFalcon05/kaonashi1 - Team Better Bettors
17. CrimsonOcean/Lady Ashe - Team Vector Industries
18. Applekidjosh/Jay Lv99 - Team Elitist Clique Members
19. outback/Rodri316 - Team High Society
20. Aprosenf/Draco1214 - Team Indomitable Force
21. satai_delenn/Lopen - Team The Council of Two
22. MaxedOutRyu/yoshifan823 - Team Boondock Saints
23. Sir Chris/yoblazer33 - Team ???
24. Forceful Dragon/SBell0105 - Team DragonBellZ
25. BZer0/ShatteredElysium - Team Ice Cream
26. basmeyer42/ps2rulezzz - Team mvp's
27. GameBopAdv/IhatethisCPU - Team It's An Upset! And You're On Your Own
28. Eeeevil Overlord/Maniac64 - Team Fodder
29. Camden/meche313 - Team Happy Happyists
30. Vlado/Zylo the wolf - Team Of Wolf and Man
31. alpha door/Lagoona - Team LADS
32. Ness26/TheKnightOfNee - Team OH IT'S NESS
33. BlAcK TuRtLe/XxSoulxX - Team lol xstats
34. Jmast7/Leebo86 - Team ?Discovery Channel?
35. Dilated Chemist/Z1mZum - Team Awesome
36. Pats_Dynasty/SuperSmash Master - Team ?ISS GON RAIN?
37. creativename/Ngamer64 - Team Predestined Divination
38. StopPokingMe/ToadYoshi - Team Jinjo! Unless poking objects
39. GrapefruitKing/Xuxon - Team Helmasaur King
40. DpObliVion/WiggumFan267 - Team Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games!
41. Canth/Scythe Marshall - Team Hyperion
42. Paratroopa1/swirldude - Team Paraswirlsion
43. ad00/cyko - Team Free shipping, can't beat that!
44. Darkash/Heroic Viktor - Team Battle Royale
45. Menji76/Seginustemple - Team magical innuendo pirates with guitars
46. Ed Bellis/transience - Team ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs
47. Hartzenan/Tomoyo - Team Silesia
48. cokes/Giggsalot - Team C.R.E.A.M.
49. WhakkoJacko/XIII_rocks - Team ???
50. MegaTokyoEd/Redtooth - Team ???
51. kirbyjump/warning_crazy - Team ???
52. ActJef1077/Weird Kirby Dude - Team SPO*N
53. FigureOfSpeech/Luster Soldier - Team Jesus Wants Our Nuts
54. AlecTrevelyan006/DaruniaTheGoron - Team Two-Faced Gorons
55. th3l3fty/yazzy14 - Team One-Two Punch
56. Ringworm/steve illumina - Team ???
57. Mantyke/oneills1 - Team ???
58. Biolizard28/Kaidyn04 - Team ???
59. jecht/PeaceOut64 - Team ???
60. AmazingKirby/entropyx - Team ???
61. longbladeofhiko/somdude04 - Team ???
62. MMXcalibur/supdawg - Team ???
63. andylt/Radix - Team ???
64. BeTheMan/Taslion - Team ???
65. freac/SF_Clowns - Team ???
66. MoogleKupo141/Starion - Team Dartboard
67. Evil_REmade/Gaddswell - Team ???
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Eek, I need a team name. Team 1+1 = 3.

I hope oneils is okay with it.

---
Ultimate Team: Infernape/Suicune/Blissey/Zapdos/Tyranitar/Cresselia

Oh god, Yoshi is doing much better and Vaan much worse than I initially though
---
Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.

I'm actually more impressed with Rikku so far. If Vaan wasn't in there, it would be more difficult to choose between the other three.
---
100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego

Knew I should have lowered Vaan some more. Oh well.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Well crap. Not off to a very good start.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.

Actually, I lied. Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA is totally getting a top 5 this match.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.

With the new format, it's way harder to tell how you're actually doing compared to everyone else.
---
Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

Damn, should've lower Vaan's percentage. <_<
---
raytan. The Cream of Terra Branford Fanboyism.
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2675/11584879241lc9.jpg

Wow....my efficiency is 1.582. I wish there was a ranking so I knew how that compared......
---
All-time record holder for most top 5's in a single Oracle Challenge(12)
12th in the SpC2k4 Oracle Challenge!

Wow, Vaan sucks... Another bad first prediction for me...
---
spud2002 is alive! >_>

Oh this'll be fun.

Already nastily bad pics, and since I'm out of town no time to really fix the next day or two. I'll need to look at these more closely >_> What the hell Knux?
---
Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak

Wow, first match isn't going too well. Currently at 43.5875 points.
---
caps

Not doing to great either, had Vaan too high and Rikku too low.
---
Current Points: Ummmm, not sure yet
Wii Number:1748 1500 8460 3690 Nickname: Reaper

I believe that the technical term for this is an interestingly disastrous day

I'm so far off it's not even funny....
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Wow....my efficiency is 1.582. I wish there was a ranking so I knew how that compared......
Our leaders for Most Top 5's ever are around 1.365. That number of yours is outright crazy...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

I've got an efficiency rating of 1.376, much higher than I was expecting.
---
If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.

Have you considered using a different metric for scoring? When all scores are going to be very low, nobody is going to be that far off. You should reward consistency more I think


Right now, my preds are 29, 22, 15 and 34.. Relatively weak I think for Vaan and Rikku.
My absolute differences are 1.73, 4.73, 5.89, 2.88.


These numbers aren't good at all, they are actually a large percent of the score Rikku and Vaan are actually getting. I mean, being 5 or 6% off when the character is only getting 10 or 25% is a HUGE distance compared to being 5 or 6 off out of a 60% a character would score in previous years. And being 5 or 6 off then meant a score of 45 or 44 - here its even easier to be 5 or 6 off on a few and get an even stronger score than other years.


Also consider when somebody we KNOW will be fodder. Everybody says 8% for them, basically gets it right, and then is off by 10 each on the other 3. That is god awful, you just blew the final score for each character by like 40% of how much they're grabbing across the board, but got 43.3 points.


It's all relative of course, the best predictor will still win, but I like a formula that rewards being close everywhere a LOT over being close on a few and mediocre on the others. As it is, comebacks will be harder, swings will be small, protecting a lead easier, and the contest may end up decided much earlier if somebody gets a lead. I think having scores cover a wider range makes things much more interesting.


Anyway, that formula is just the distance formula. (acualA-predictedA)^2 for each of the characters. Add it, then take the square root.


Current scoring: ~46.2
Square differences, sum, square root (standard distance formula): ~42.6

Damnit, I knew I wouldn't make it back from that damn trip in time. Son of a...

Alright, starting at a disadvantage... sorry Jmast!

preeow

Janus5000's prediction:

Knuckles the Echidna - 27.63%
Rikku - 26.09%
Vaan - 11.12%
Yoshi - 35.16%

Real Prediction at the moment.

Knuckles the Echidna - 27.35%
Rikku - 26.74%
Vaan - 9.15%
Yoshi - 36.76%

Has anyone else got better than that?
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ADVERTISEMENT SC2k7 Character/User Tag Team Contest.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37963546

Has anyone else got better than that?
We haven't run Page 8 yet and without it it's good enough for 3rd

Best one right now? Vlado with a really really solid pick:
Knuckles - 28.15%
Rikku - 25.43%
Vaan - 9.96%
Yoshi - 36.46%
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

My link on the prediction part of the website doesn't work....
---
OH JEEZE!

My link on the prediction part of the website doesn't work....

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/index.php?file=predictions&id=409
Works for me...:/
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

octoinky, I agree with some of your points - I do think this is going to be a high scoring contest, where there will probably be less range in the scores than usual. And using exponents might actually be a good idea. Basically, the problem was that there was no way to really see what the scores were going to look like until we've done the contest, so I wanted to go with a simple scoring system.

Now that the contest has started I don't think it would be fair to change the scoring in any way that affects rankings (although I may re-scale the scores if average scores turn out to be way higher than before). But after we have some data I'll definitely look at how things would be with different systems like the one you suggest.
---
Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

Understandable - People may have preferred safer picks against a harsh scoring system, making changing things unfair at this point. Anyway, useless to discuss until we're a few matches in anyway, because I could be way off and scores may end up being spread out.

I just think its going to take AWFUL predictions to score under a 40. That means the sum of the differences was over 40, or that you were an average of 10 off each character, who average only 25%.. that is just awful for 40 points. But once again, its all relative so maybe that isn't an issue.

We'll see how it shakes out though, and really just a small point anyway - the point remains to predict the best possible no matter the scoring as long as its fair (which it is).




And FWIW, I'm not a random n00b, I've been around all contests and a friend of Ngamers since 2000 :)

Yeah, I like 50 - (w + x + y + z)/2.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Yeah, I like 50 - (w + x + y + z)/2.

It might happen...we'll have to see how today turns out....scores won't be that high for a match pretty much everyone agreed on...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

yeah, there won't be many super high scores but there won't be much range.

No idea what my rank will be, but my pick looks pretty good. Somewhere between 48.5 and 49 I believe.

Oh baby oh baby oh baby.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.

Uh... In the third match of my predictions, it looks like I forgot to put a % sign. I'm missing

Frog - 17.00%
---
It's iubaris, not Lubaris.

I could be wrong because it has been a while since one of these contests, but didn't there used to be a penalty for picking the incorrect winner? Wasn't it 50-x if you were right and 45-2x if wrong? Personally I think next year there should be some way of penalizing missed places like (I think) there have been in previous tournaments.
For example, the 7th place pick had Rikku over Knux by 2.5%, which seems wrong to me somehow. But again for the first year this system is fine, this is probably a better discussion for this spring...
---
If you think the fastest way to a man's heart is through his stomach, you're aiming about 8 inches too high.

42nd. I will climb!


-ЧRÀG£-
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

I got some pretty yucky predictions for today's match. Mega Man has far exceeded my expectations.
---
Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

Uh... In the third match of my predictions, it looks like I forgot to put a % sign. I'm missing

Frog - 17.00%

Predictions don't get registered in this topic, so you should repost that in the predictions topic.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Augh, 66th, not a great start.

Well, our team is 17th! That's better.
---
Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.

Yay for my 27th top 5 and 7th leaderboard day. Too bad it won't last.

I wonder where my effeciency rating ranks among the people who have participated in a lot of matches. Its got to be pretty high I think.

Match # 1 Results
Yoshi 35.47%
Knuckles the Echidna 27.84%
Rikku 27.14%
Vaan 9.54%

The 2007 Summer Contest is underway, and it kicks off with a bit of a surprise! Rikku gave Knuckles a run for his money and held a lead in the early hours of the poll, giving us the closest ever first match of the contest. 169 people showed up to predict the match, an all-time Oracle record. The consensus predictions were: Knuckles the Echidna 30.32%, Rikku 21.59%, Vaan 13.50%, and Yoshi 34.62%. 134 predictors correctly had Yoshi and Knuckles ranked 1-2, while another 24 had Knuckles first and Yoshi second. Two brave people had Vaan advancing in second, while one actually had him first over Yoshi.

Best Five Picks:
1) Janus5000 - Knuckles 27.63% - Rikku 26.09% - Vaan 11.12% - Yoshi 35.16% (+49.21)
2) Vlado - Knuckles 28.15% - Rikku 25.43% - Vaan 9.96% - Yoshi 36.46% (+49.14)
3) KleenexTissue50 - Knuckles 28.32% - Rikku 25.12% - Vaan 11.30% - Yoshi 35.26% (+48.88)
4) Lopen - Knuckles 30.30% - Rikku 26.61% - Vaan 9.07% - Yoshi 34.02% (+48.77)
5) GoldSlime35 - Knuckles 30.00% - Rikku 25.00% - Vaan 10.00% - Yoshi 35.00% (+48.69)

The difficulty of predicting four characters is apparent, as we didn't have any super-high predictions today despite a match that went more or less as expected. Janus had the top pick, making him the current contest leader! Janus now has 7 top five picks. Vlado was the only other person to score over 49 and had the second best pick. In third was Janus's teammate Kleenex, giving them a great score for the day. The unpredictable Lopen was fourth, followed by GoldSlime, who is appearing int he top 5 for his 27th time.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=1

Top Team Scores:
1) Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA - 98.09 (Janus5000 +49.21 / KleenexTissue50 +48.88)
2) Team High Society - 95.75 (Rodri316 +47.06 / outback +48.69)
3) Team Drunkadelict Armadillos - 95.09 (Haste2 +47.58 / Dekar TKB +47.51)
4) Team Of Wolf and Man - 95.06 (Zylo the wolf +45.92 / Vlado +49.14)
5) Team Klonoa Alliance - 95.02 (raytan7585 +47.52 / amyvitality66 +47.50)

Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA dominated the team scores today with their double-leaderboard showing. Rodri and outback's Team High Society was second, followed by a pack of teams. The Drunkadelict Armadillos (returning for their second contest), Team of Wolf and Man, and Team Klonoa Alliance (returning for their third contest) were third, fourth, and fifth, separated by only 0.07 points.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=1
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin