*goes on a stabbity rage against Agent 47*

You're supposed to suck!
---
Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak

BBallman7 | Posted 9/6/2007 3:08:56 PM | message detail
does anyone have the original picks archived by any chance? I was just wondering if the pick on the site for me today is a mistake or if I was just on drugs lol. Because all of my matches add up exactly to 100 and today it adds up to 135.11% with Midna having a really high %, when I could have sworn I typed out 35 or something close to it. Probably a mistake on my part, but I'm just curious.

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=37564158&message=19015
We archive every single post since the database was setup and since it's in the database it was rather easy to set up "fake boards" to browse them easily. It was the space before the period that messed up the script. Since it's blatantly obvious you messed up I fixed it but be careful since posting something like 34. 31 could be used to try to cheat so we might not always agree on fixing them.


DpObliVion | Posted 9/6/2007 4:16:52 PM | message detail
Would it be possible to make rankings including such penalties just for fun after the contest is over?

Possible? Yes. Likely? No. We'll see how tired I am after two months of these but if you can remember to remind me about it once the contest is over it could be a possibility since we always pull random stats at those times...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

My predictions on Agent 47 and Kratos are pretty good, too bad that I'm more than 10% off on Midna.

Damn Midna, you're suppose to not suck by being Zelda! It screw my bracket as well.

Thanks for the link.
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SC2k7: 12/12, tied for 1st
Today's Pick: Scorpion > Midna

Wow, first in singles and teams. Awesome. =)
---
caps

post ITT if you bombed today.

Kefka - 32.91%
Marcus Fenix - 24.41%
Tom Nook - 27.77%
Zelos Wilder - 14.91%

My original prediction. WAY BETTER THAN MY CHANGE


-ЧRÀG£-
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

up 52 spots omg
---
cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister

Only dropped one spot? Wow. I'll be happy if that happens again. Going to be WAY off with my predictions.

Woah I got 9th best! Mets and Sonic at the Oracle Games 5th best!

---
Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 16/16

Glad my last change was a bit late. Only Nook would have been closer than my actual prediction.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

If Zelos and Tom Nook gain percentage all day and Kefka and Marcus fall (which will probably happen, as more casual voters and less bracket voters are around later on), then I could have my first good prediction of this season. Hopefully. <_<

Also, I kill you Midna. Way to suck it up.
---
Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.

Marcus is an X-Box character... he'll gain in percentage in the day. D'oh. If he beats Kefka, he should definitely be favored next round. Ouch... when did Tom Nook get so strong? And Zelos so weak? Maybe ToS does poorly in these types of polls.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Thirteen percent. That's just sad, beyond pathetic...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Match # 4 Results
Scorpion 36.64%
Midna 24.71%
Kratos Aurion 21.09%
Agent 47 17.56%

Day 4 brought us our first true upset of the contest... Scorpion, who was supposed to finish behind Midna, blew her away by almost 12% of the vote. 118 out of 175 oracles had Midna finishing in first and Scorpion second, while only 30 had them in the correct order. The consensus predictions were: Agent 47 - 12.35%, Kratos Aurion - 22.43%, Midna - 34.55%, Scorpion - 30.67%. In addition to the main showdown, Agent 47 also outperformed expectations by 5%, meaning he got almost 50% more votes than he was expected to.

Best Five Picks:
1) expaniol - Agent 47 16.13% - Kratos Aurion 20.45% - Midna 27.40% - Scorpion 36.02% (+48.65)
2) neonreaper - Agent 47 15.00% - Kratos Aurion 22.50% - Midna 24.00% - Scorpion 38.50% (+48.36)
3) ECW RVD420 - Agent 47 18.24% - Kratos Aurion 20.84% - Midna 22.17% - Scorpion 40.21% (+48.24)
4) Legendary Curt - Agent 47 19.00% - Kratos Aurion 23.00% - Midna 21.00% - Scorpion 37.00% (+48.14)
5) The Real Truth - Agent 47 20.00% - Kratos Aurion 19.00% - Midna 26.00% - Scorpion 35.00% (+48.13)

Despite the big surprise today, we still had some fairly high scores. Expaniol had the best prediction, his first time in the top 5 (this being his first contest). Neonreaper is second, also his first time in the top 5 in his first contest. ECW RVD420 gets third (his 10th top 5), followed by NoDiceCurt and The Real Truth.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=4

Current Leaderboard:
1) AmazingKirby - 189.15
2) The n00b Avenger - 188.90
3) Haste2 - 188.38
4) ps2rulezzz - 188.30
5) expaniol - 187.99

Leaderboard shakeup! Former leaders Kleenex and transience drop 10 spots and 14 spots, respectively. AmazingKirby moves up from fifth to take over the top spot. The n00b Avenger climbs to second, making his first leaderboard appearance of the season, and Haste2, no stranger to the leaderboard, moves up from 6th to 3rd. Ps2rulezzz drops one spot to fourth, while today's top predictor expaniol jumps a whopping 50 places to fifth.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=4
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Top Team Scores:
1) ??? - 92.65 (BeTheMan: +47.80 / Taslion: +44.85)
2) Predestined Divination - 92.27 (creativename: +45.60 / Ngamer64: +46.67)
3) The Amazing Question Marks - 92.12 (AmazingKirby: +46.10 / entropyx: +46.02)
4) Jagermeister - 91.86 (Sess: +0.00 / neonreaper: +48.36)
5) Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games! - 91.68 (WiggumFan267: +44.53 / DpObliVion: +47.15)

BeTheMan and Taslion, who need to think up a team name, were the best scoring team today. Team Predestined Divination backed up some of their trash talk with a second place score today... let's hope they don't get too cocky! The Amazing Question Marks get third for the second time in three days. Team Jagmeister ranks fourth, no thanks to Sess, who didn't predict... all the credit goes to neonreaper for that one. Finally, WiggumFan and DpOblivion's Mets & Sonic at the Oracle Games scores fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=4

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team The Amazing Question Marks (AmazingKirby / entropyx) - 374.65
2) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 374.48
3) Team Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA (Janus5000 / KleenexTissue50) - 374.04
4) Team Better Bettors (FastFalcon05 / kaonashi1) - 372.95
5) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 372.32

The team leaderboard has a shakeup today too - The Amazing Question Marks move up four spots to claim the lead, and Team Predestined Divination is only 0.17 points behind in second place. The former leaders, Battle with Gilgamesh < JENOVA, drop down to third but are still within a point of the lead. The Better Bettors also drop two spots to fourth, and team Rage of Warcraft rounds out the top 5.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=4
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Well, I'm getting absolutely demolished today :-/

Woo Top 20!

Well, I'm getting absolutely demolished today :-/

You should check my prediction before saying that! =P
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

My original pick was good, and my change cost me at least 3.5 points....

mine is 1.5 points worse than KM's and wars is 0.7 points worse than mine

lol


-ЧRÀG£-
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

I'm about 26 points off right now. Awesome. I should really look up who these characters are before I predict what they'll get, as outside of Kefka I don't know anyone in this poll.
---
Earthbound: It's like living inside your gym shoes.
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud

Bye bye, leaderboard.

Anyway... back to that 4-way calculator thing...

Morgoth:
Scorpion - 26.50% on BL
Midna - 20.25%
Kratos Aurion - 18.00%
Agent 47 - 15.50%

I'm not kidding. Scorpion dominated a lot more than the math apparently wanted it to.

creative:
Scorpion - 24%
Midna - 21.25%
Kratos Aurion - 20.25%
Agent 47 - 19.25%

Well, you could debate Agent 47 getting stronger, and Scorpion seems in place.

Stupid:
Scorpion - 26%
Midna - 21%
Kratos Aurion - 19%
Agent 47 - 16.75%

Winner! (IMO)

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Bye bye, leaderboard.

Everyone's doing bad today. You're actually doing very well by comparison right now.
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Haha. Yeah, I noticed. I didn't realize the people really close to me bombed (slightly) harder until I looked at their predictions. =P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Disaster strikes again.
I want to shoot myself for forgetting to change the previous predictions. ;_;
---
raytan. The Cream of Terra Branford Fanboyism.
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/2675/11584879241lc9.jpg

Hot new site update! At my suggestion, KM has kindly updated the Team Rankings page so that whenever you hover over a team name, the members will pop right up for you. Check it out:

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=4

So if you're wondering, wow, who are those studs in second place? Now you need only hover for a moment. Pretty handy, I say!

---
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

KM, remember on AIM how we were talking about the validity of your 4-way poll formula (and mine)? You know, how I was trying to convince you that if, say, Kefka gets 20% on Link, and Edgeworth and Bidoof each got 10% on Link, Kefka would get get 50% on Edgeworth and Bidoof? Anyway, the following stuff suggests it's all true.

Well, I skipped testing that idea with creative's formula, thinking it wouldn't work... until a minute ago. IT WORKED PERFECTLY (the other methods did not). So, maybe his was mathematically correct, after all (despite an apparently obvious flaw)... however, the results still don't make sense, so maybe multiple factors besides raw strength influence the results.

The way I tested them was this: use the amazing excel file King Morgoth provided, and then use only three characters. Then, I'd set Link to 50%, and set both Edgeworth and Bidoof to X%. I'd optimize their percentage until the "X-stats" results suggested 80% for Link, and 10% for the others. Then, I'd set Kefka to 20% (20% on Link), and keep the x-stats of Edgeworth and Bidoof the same. The result ended up 50%, 25%, 25%, exactly as they "should" be. I did a similar thing with other 4-way result calculators, and it wouldn't work out.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

You just had a double post... with an hour and a half in between. O_o
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

WUT?! Oops.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Wow, i'm at < 42 points for this match right now. My bracket is falling apart too, especially if Marcus ends up winning.
---
CBVI: 14/16
Next: Kefka > Zelos > Marcus Fenix/Tom Nook

hmm, I guess I can't complain today. this could be a lot worse.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch

I really bombed today. I had Kefka in a landslide with 65%. Too bad after getting 7th yesterday and climbing 40 spots.

GJ
---
http://www.facebook.com/p/Grant_Johnson/9202808

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=37564158&message=19015
We archive every single post since the database was setup and since it's in the database it was rather easy to set up "fake boards" to browse them easily. It was the space before the period that messed up the script. Since it's blatantly obvious you messed up I fixed it but be careful since posting something like 34. 31 could be used to try to cheat so we might not always agree on fixing them.


ok I see that now, thanks a lot for changing it for me.

---
If we're not supposed to eat animals, then why are they made out of meat?
Board 8's Head of Covert Operations

War is ON! >_>

Haste_2 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:35:38 AM | message detail
KM, remember on AIM how we were talking about the validity of your 4-way poll formula (and mine)? You know, how I was trying to convince you that if, say, Kefka gets 20% on Link, and Edgeworth and Bidoof each got 10% on Link, Kefka would get get 50% on Edgeworth and Bidoof? Anyway, the following stuff suggests it's all true.

Well, I skipped testing that idea with creative's formula, thinking it wouldn't work... until a minute ago. IT WORKED PERFECTLY (the other methods did not). So, maybe his was mathematically correct, after all (despite an apparently obvious flaw)... however, the results still don't make sense, so maybe multiple factors besides raw strength influence the results.

The way I tested them was this: use the amazing excel file King Morgoth provided, and then use only three characters. Then, I'd set Link to 50%, and set both Edgeworth and Bidoof to X%. I'd optimize their percentage until the "X-stats" results suggested 80% for Link, and 10% for the others. Then, I'd set Kefka to 20% (20% on Link), and keep the x-stats of Edgeworth and Bidoof the same. The result ended up 50%, 25%, 25%, exactly as they "should" be. I did a similar thing with other 4-way result calculators, and it wouldn't work out.

The whole problem lies in that you can't shake away the idea that if A, B and C get the same total as D against E, D will necessarily get exactly 50% against them. It's cute, it's instinctive, it's still false until you can prove it wrong. And saying that's what "should" happen isn't proving it =P

I've had a class once where we proved for a certain stochastic process T (I think it was a martingale, too) with stopping times, the expectancy of the time elapsed before the process stops is infinite. The teacher then went on to prove that, despite that, the probability that a finite time elapses before the process stops is ....1. I didn't like it either the first time. And despite being the one who just proved it, I still don't really like it. But I know it's right is an interesting thought coming from a teacher.... The first thing you should learn is that just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean it's wrong...

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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Wow, 2 disaster picks in a row. Fun.
---
Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Runner of Winning Streak

That was a bad day.

But Fenix is making very happy right now.
---
SoaP on a Rope - SoaR Secretary of Defense
[Browncoat] ~Board 570901~

NGamer
Hot new site update! At my suggestion, KM has kindly updated the Team Rankings page so that whenever you hover over a team name, the members will pop right up for you. Check it out:

That's neat. I used to wonder about team membership too.

Though it should be noted in bold large font over the standings "Hover your mouse over teams to see members" or something, otherwise no one is ever going to notice it, outside the like 8 people who just read this (half of whom will forget) :)


Haste2
You know, how I was trying to convince you that if, say, Kefka gets 20% on Link, and Edgeworth and Bidoof each got 10% on Link, Kefka would get get 50% on Edgeworth and Bidoof?

I don't think that should be the case, the dynamics are unlikely to work that way I think.

I also don't think my formula works out that way except maybe by coincidence for certain numbers.


So, maybe his was mathematically correct, after all (despite an apparently obvious flaw)

I'm pretty sure Morgoth's method is better.

The only thing about the Link vs. 1 million midcarders flaw (let's assume everyone's position in the poll was randomized for every visitor) is that Link probably would get way more than expected, just because people that do vote would be like "WTF?" <cntrl+F "Link"> or whatever. But, that's just a funky thing I thought and really means nothing. It's too big a flaw to overcome.

There may be methods other than Morgoth's, but his is fully viable, and may well be the correct basis above all others.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Hey Morgoth, I was browsing through the Guru brackets, it seems as though me and you are the only current contenders with Ryu > Bowser. We'll be #1 and #2 if that goes through (barring any big upsets besides that)

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

Just got my pick in, and yikes... I think we're in for one of the biggest Day Vote killings in Contest history tomorrow. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Cloud down there not too far from the Mega Man/Samus percentage marks through the overnight before going on an incredible tear when the sun comes up... I mean, who's going to take any of those votes from him? Should also be interesting to see Zolom shoot for the lowest percentage of the season; got to imagine he's got a good shot.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!

Though it should be noted in bold large font over the standings "Hover your mouse over teams to see members" or something, otherwise no one is ever going to notice it, outside the like 8 people who just read this (half of whom will forget) :)
That could happen >_>
**********
I don't think that should be the case, the dynamics are unlikely to work that way I think.

I also don't think my formula works out that way except maybe by coincidence for certain numbers.
I'm pretty sure it would always work out that way. I'm just too lazy to prove it =P
**********
Hey Morgoth, I was browsing through the Guru brackets, it seems as though me and you are the only current contenders with Ryu > Bowser. We'll be #1 and #2 if that goes through (barring any big upsets besides that)
Watch Ocelot blow that in our faces =P
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

w00t! first place!
---
Member Of The Book Club
Behold The Power Of Cheese. Level 2: Cottage Cheese(220 points)

Hay Menji we are kicking ayass.
---
If I had written the book, I would have made it so the spirit of man pops out of Winston and socks O'Brien in the face really hard...

Whoa, didn't expect to jump up 25 spots with such an average result. I guess most people did pretty bad
---
Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Cloud 59.23% - Jill 18.98% - Zolomy 5.63% - Ocelot 16.16% ~ Status: Unknown

Whew, only dropped 13 spots. And we moved up 1 in Team Rankings!

Nice perfect bracket too, Morgoth.

---
Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (

I went up 31 places. Yay!
---
Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~

1) Predestined Divination

Well geez now, that sure didn't take very long! :)

Ngamer buddy, this 4-way prediction stuff is a breeze, right? ;)

Really though I think we can stay in the top 10 from here on out. We'll almost surely drift out of the top 5 at some point but I like our chances of finishing there!
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Morgoth, your formula seems to be working great for this match. I tried it for the first time a few hours ago and got about 55% for Cloud. That seemed somewhat low to me so I predicted 60%, but it looks to be very good. Well below what most people were predicting I think - most numbers were above 60% right?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Morgoth, your formula seems to be working great for this match. I tried it for the first time a few hours ago and got about 55% for Cloud. That seemed somewhat low to me so I predicted 60%, but it looks to be very good. Well below what most people were predicting I think - most numbers were above 60% right?

I pretty much predicted what the numbers gave me, it's very dependent on what you give to Jill and Ocelot....
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 9:09:33 PM | message detail
Nice perfect bracket too, Morgoth.

It's not going to last though =P
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)