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Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 2
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/27/2006 3:23:47 PM | Message Detail
This is the second Oracle Challenge discussion topic, for use after the first one fills up.

Day 15 Leaderboard
1) DSRage - 700.79
2) ad00 - 698.28
3) Aprosenf - 693.90
4) cyko - 693.38
5) Draco1214 - 691.00

Discuss!
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CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Round 1: Sonic
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 9/27/2006 3:27:58 PM | Message Detail
*Does the happy 3rd place dance*
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: LusterSoldier | Posted: 9/27/2006 3:30:14 PM | Message Detail
Looking at everyone's predictions, I will most likely fall one place after this match.
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Luster Soldier - Pwned by Repus_Yortsed
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30445079
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 9/27/2006 3:32:33 PM | Message Detail
I'm going to pass IhatethisCPU today... I feel so... special -_-
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~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: King_Zog | Posted: 9/27/2006 3:33:13 PM | Message Detail
*dances in last place*
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Ladies and Gentlemen, your attention please. The Orient Express is now departing... All passengers should be on board.
From: MyWorldIsTerra | Posted: 9/27/2006 9:35:49 PM | Message Detail
If Snake goes down to 76% something....*shoot self*

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No.1 in my Final Fantasy female rankings.
*is raytan7585* at work
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 9/27/2006 9:36:36 PM | Message Detail
Taggage for dis one.
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CB5 Points: 15/16, Current Oracle placement: 19/158
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
From: Ringworm | Posted: 9/27/2006 9:42:23 PM | Message Detail
Shouldn't have changed my pick. Yesterday was good though, for once.
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~ Ringworm ~
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 9/27/2006 9:47:41 PM | Message Detail
Oh, here's the new topic.
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: ad00 | Posted: 9/27/2006 9:53:16 PM | Message Detail
First for perhaps a final time tonight, though I hope I can hang on.

cyko, do your thing.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle: 1st-2nd dance with DSR / Runner of Winning Streak
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 9/27/2006 10:41:29 PM | Message Detail
Awesome, ten points off the Lara prediction, but I only fell two places. And now my Snake pick is within .5% :) Top 20, here I come!
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I've been called an idiot many times, mostly by people with poor grammar and a small vernicular. - ExtremeM65
From: King_Zog | Posted: 9/27/2006 10:42:10 PM | Message Detail
Snake to win the tournament!
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Ladies and Gentlemen, your attention please. The Orient Express is now departing... All passengers should be on board.
From: creativename | Posted: 9/27/2006 11:39:58 PM | Message Detail
The search button still isn't working, in either FireFox or IE (it doesn't pass the search string). Here's some code that should work:

<form action="http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/search.php" method="get" id="searchtopics">
<input type="hidden" name="board" value="8" />
<input type="hidden" name="search" value="oracle" id="searchtopicstring">
<input type="submit" value="Search for the Oracle Challenge Topic">
</form>

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 9/28/2006 1:57:10 AM | Message Detail
Hooray, my team got the top team score for yesterday!

Does top prediction for teams count towards my efficiency rating or no?
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: cyko | Posted: 9/28/2006 3:57:49 AM | Message Detail
it's a bit late, but here's some of the top picks:

1) ad00 741.43 +0.00 0.00 Snake 75.00%
2) DSRage 740.27 +0.00 -1.16 Snake 78.18%
3) cyko 737.11 +0.00 -4.32 Snake 80.56%
4) Aprosenf 736.89 +0.00 -4.54 Snake 84.11%
5) Kaxon 734.07 +0.00 -7.36 Snake 79.41%
6) Ed Bellis 733.73 +0.00 -7.70 Snake 72.34%
7) Draco1214 733.45 +0.00 -7.98 Snake 75.00%
8) Luster Soldier 731.08 +0.00 -10.35 Snake 78.17%
9) Ness26 729.10 +0.00 -12.33 Snake 76.01%
10) Rodri316 728.41 +0.00 -13.02 Snake 78.11%
11) Karma Hunter 727.13 +0.00 -14.30 Snake 78.59%
12) Ngamer64 727.05 +0.00 -14.38 Snake 81.73%
13) PeaceOut64 726.31 +0.00 -15.12 Snake 77.50%

ad00 won't be falling off the leaderboard today. you'll probably drop down to 4th, though. and it now looks like a battle between Aprosenf and DSRage for 1st. i suppose i shouldn't have lowered my pick from 84% either.....

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
From: KingBartz | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:33:58 AM | Message Detail
yay for +5 on the leader! I might have the male bracket reigniting my genious picks again!
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 5 days
SC2K6: 15/16 Today's pick: Solid Snake
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:56:58 AM | Message Detail
The search button still isn't working, in either FireFox or IE (it doesn't pass the search string). Here's some code that should work:

Sorry 'bout that, completely forgot to fix it when you mentionned it in the other topic. It still works for me in both IE and Firefox so I needed to figure out what the heck is going on...

The button was coded a while ago, and it's linking to gfaqs9, which you don't seem to have access to anymore from what I see. Hence the whole crashing when you try to use it. I'll flip it back to gfaqs when I get home, your old code still works fine.
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It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Darkash | Posted: 9/28/2006 10:15:33 AM | Message Detail
Keep that percentage rising, Snake!
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1st place in scientist pg's TLoZ MM riddle contest!
12th in the SpC2k4 Oracle Challenge!
From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/28/2006 10:19:37 AM | Message Detail
CYKO!

Me and you are slowly ascending to team leaderboard glory! The Returners will get it done...its about all the glory I will get this year... sighs...
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Fall 2K6: 16/17
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/28/2006 10:28:42 AM | Message Detail
A comment creativename made a while ago...

Maybe the contest is easy because people are starting to get a feel for things more than ever, though...who knows?

I definitely think that's the case. Back in 2004 the average person didn't know how to use the x-stats, and while this contest hasn't been heavily x-stat based so far, people can still make comparisons using Ngamer's tool. Also, the number of competitors has increased so much that it's a lot harder to get into the top 5 than it used to be.

Since we're now a quarter of the way through the contest, it's a little interesting to look at the standings. So far we've had three full length Oracle Challenges. In those contests, the people who were on the leaderboard after 16 days finished on the final leaderboard 7/15 times. If you don't count people who missed matches, then people who were in the top 5 after 16 matches finished on the final leaderboard 7/10 times, and finished in the top 10 9/10 times - but of course there's a selection bias where people who imploded were less likely to predict the whole contest.

In 2004 the ultimate winners had already established themselves by this point (King Morgoth was 2nd on day 16 of the spring contest, and kawaiifan was 6th on day 16 of the summer contest), but if you're not up there yet, don't despair - Xuxon came from 54th on day 16 to win the summer 2005 Oracle Challenge.
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CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Round 1: Sonic
From: creativename | Posted: 9/28/2006 11:18:11 AM | Message Detail
It still works for me in both IE and Firefox so I needed to figure out what the heck is going on...

Strange...

The button was coded a while ago, and it's linking to gfaqs9, which you don't seem to have access to anymore from what I see.

I remember links to gfaqs9 working for me until recently. I just tested by adding 9 to the URL and it just redirects to the default skin, though I'm not sure if that's a different address than the links I've seen.

Someone give me a gfaqs9 link to this topic please, so I can check :)

(I doubt anyone uses the button anyway, but I'm curious about this)


A comment creativename made a while ago...

I don't think that was me :)
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 9/28/2006 11:20:29 AM | Message Detail
That was me who said that, actually. :p

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
From: Xuxon | Posted: 9/28/2006 11:32:40 AM | Message Detail
Xuxon came from 54th on day 16 to win the summer 2005 Oracle Challenge.

Yeah, I always seem to start badly. I was in over 100th place after Boss/Celes but I've been going on a tear, and now after today I'll be in like 30-35th, finally hanging with a bunch of the big names. I think I've still got a shot at the threepeat, though now I really wish I had gotten a chance to change my Ada/Jade pick. I'd be in 23rd today looking to move into the teens.
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Take off every sig.
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 9/28/2006 11:50:18 AM | Message Detail
While I don't quite do as well as Xuxon in the second half, I do vastly better in the second half than in the first. I expect that I could finish in the Top 25...
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Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Minnesota Twins: 89-61
From: Kaxon | Posted: 9/28/2006 1:26:14 PM | Message Detail
after today I'll be in like 30-35th, finally hanging with a bunch of the big names.

*checks to see what you mean*

31) King Morgoth 717.37
32) creativename 716.61
33) Team Rocket Elite 716.51
34) Menji76 716.22
35) basmeyer42 715.51
36) yoblazer33 714.99
37) Dilated Chemist 714.22
38) kawaiifan 714.03
39) Eggplant Lord 713.81
40) Xuxon 713.76

O_o

That would be a pretty impressive top 10 right there...
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CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Round 1: Sonic
From: Darkash | Posted: 9/28/2006 1:42:08 PM | Message Detail
Ho-ly crud, is that an impressive list. And I thought I was having trouble now....when I get up there, I'l have to pull a few miracles to get above those names.
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1st place in scientist pg's TLoZ MM riddle contest!
12th in the SpC2k4 Oracle Challenge!
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/28/2006 3:29:37 PM | Message Detail
I'll be dropping so far behind that list it's not even funny...
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It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/28/2006 3:33:37 PM | Message Detail
The search button should be fixed on the website creative.

The old code worked fine with gfaqs9 but not with the new code, chanegd it to the new one.
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It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: LotteryTicket | Posted: 9/28/2006 4:44:00 PM | Message Detail
COME ON SNAKE!!

LOSE .13% AND I'LL BE PERFECT!
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Current Score: 17/17 Next Match: Squall Leonhart vs. Tidus
~~Stingers135~~
From: meche313 | Posted: 9/28/2006 6:30:59 PM | Message Detail
Other than thinking that Squall will get a huge boost thanks to KH2, I don't think this should be over 63%. Kirby got 58% on Tidus and a rematch of Squall-Kirby would be VERY close, so I don't get how Squall can all of a sudden get a doubling. I can be wrong though.
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Happy Happyists 4th on the Oracle Team Challenge. 3rd on Spread Betting!
From: KingBartz | Posted: 9/28/2006 6:35:40 PM | Message Detail
Keep gaining Soma. just .5% more!

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 5 days
SC2K6: 15/16 Today's pick: Solid Snake
From: LusterSoldier | Posted: 9/28/2006 6:42:20 PM | Message Detail
Just lose 0.05% and I will be happy since I will get at least 46 points off this match.
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Luster Soldier - Pwned by Repus_Yortsed
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30445079
From: catldr24 | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:25:07 PM | Message Detail
...and once again, I SEVERELY underestimate the big names. >_< At least its under, I think it looks better than over... >_>
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Yeah, I'm a fur. So?
*proud participant in the Oracle Challenge*
From: Camden | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:36:40 PM | Message Detail
I definitely think that's the case. Back in 2004 the average person didn't know how to use the x-stats, and while this contest hasn't been heavily x-stat based so far, people can still make comparisons using Ngamer's tool.

I do not know what this tool you speak of is.
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Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
I'll STAB him in the forehead with my FINGERNAIL! DIVINE RETRIBUTION! -Egbert
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:38:48 PM | Message Detail
C'mon, hang on, don't go below 82.15!
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~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: Ness26 | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:39:55 PM | Message Detail
It's fun to keep bombing picks! ^^
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Best. Board/Card Game. Ever Contest:
http://www.bracketmaker.com/tlist.cfm?tid=171196
From: catldr24 | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:54:03 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I have no idea where the X-Stats are either.
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Yeah, I'm a fur. So?
*proud participant in the Oracle Challenge*
From: ad00 | Posted: 9/28/2006 8:59:54 PM | Message Detail
I've never used the x-stats to predict and made it to 1st on day 16.

Though my pick for Squall/Tidus was near identical to the x-stats value, and i barely raised it to take SFF into account, but I'll probably be low. I just think Tidus is quite a strong character, despite Squall's uberness.

Oh, and I've never believe the KHF exists.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle: 1st-2nd dance with DSR / Runner of Winning Streak
From: catldr24 | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:06:18 PM | Message Detail
*finally decides to go check team stats* *notices his team won on Lara Croft day* O_o... AWESOMENESS!!! ^^
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Yeah, I'm a fur. So?
*proud participant in the Oracle Challenge*
From: ad00 | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:06:51 PM | Message Detail
Wow... not changing my snake pick 10 minutes before the match would have kept me in first =( I knew I should resist, it was writing my guest analysis for the crew that convinced myself to change it... I kept boosting Soma in my mind.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle:4th... bad change on snake / Runner of Winning Streak
From: DSRage_Revived | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:07:25 PM | Message Detail
I have to learn to go with my gut....


-DR-
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Currently 1st out of 158 in the Oracle Challenge.
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:07:26 PM | Message Detail
I am so maddeningly inconsistent in this - either I've been near the top or near the bottom for practically every match thus far. Thankfully I've been near the top more than the bottom. >_>
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
From: Starion | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:08:36 PM | Message Detail
Er, what was the xstats value for this match anyway? Both characters have had a common opponent before but I really don't think the Squall/Kirby match is reliable now.
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:12:56 PM | Message Detail
Did I just throw 7 points out of the window?
Well hell yeah I did!
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It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: ad00 | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:13:07 PM | Message Detail
lolx has 57.83 I believe.

And I'm with DSR, going against my gut has lost me close to 15-20 points thus far.
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Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle:4th... bad change on snake / Runner of Winning Streak
From: satai_delenn | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:18:06 PM | Message Detail
GORRAM.

I can't believe I let you guys change my mind! I had Squall at 67%! And then I changed it!! Note to self: stop listening to the board.

>_>
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Beating FE5 and FE6 hard mode is a true test of manhood in the Japanese culture. However. This explains why they have a lot of effeminate men. ~Sytha
From: DSRage_Revived | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:20:26 PM | Message Detail
Going against my gut has ruined me.


-DR-
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Currently 1st out of 158 in the Oracle Challenge.
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:20:55 PM | Message Detail
My pick is looking mighty sexy right about now.
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 14/16, Next= Snake, Squall, Yoshi, Dante
From: cyko | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:20:56 PM | Message Detail
1) DSRage 786.30 +0.00 0.00 Squall 63.22%
2) cyko 785.52 +0.00 -0.78 Squall 61.48%
3) Aprosenf 784.93 +0.00 -1.37 Squall 61.43%
4) ad00 784.28 +0.00 -2.02 Squall 59.95%
5) Kaxon 781.33 +0.00 -4.97 Squall 61.89%
6) Luster Soldier 777.10 +0.00 -9.20 Squall 60.63%
7) Ngamer64 776.63 +0.00 -9.67 Squall 62.21%
8) Draco1214 776.30 +0.00 -10.00 Squall 61.00%
9) Rodri316 774.37 +0.00 -11.93 Squall 62.00%
10) Ed Bellis 773.92 +0.00 -12.38 Squall 60.00%
11) Karma Hunter 773.57 +0.00 -12.73 Squall 62.22%
12) Ness26 772.96 +0.00 -13.34 Squall 59.29%
13) Camden 772.54 +0.00 -13.76 Squall 60.90%
14) PeaceOut64 771.66 +0.00 -14.64 Squall 62.80%

hmph. i foresee very little change on the leaderboard for tomorrow. although, DSRage made a decent pick and looks like he will pull away a bit.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
From: trannyscience | Posted: 9/28/2006 9:24:20 PM | Message Detail
my horrid Snake pick might be made up by my whopping 64% today! watch out leaderboard
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xyzzy
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