Link is currently getting 70p of the non-Samus Nintendo vote. Judging by their direct matchup in 2002 and their values in contests since then, I feel this is too high, so I'm going to give only 60p of the Samus vote to Link and the other 40p to Mario. The Sony guys gain nothing from Samus dropping out because I'm going to pretend that people vote like robots. And that leaves us with...

Link - 31.13%
Cloud - 23.67%
Sephiroth - 16.42%
Mario - 14.73%
Snake - 13.24%

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives