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SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Round 3
From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:51:09 PM | Message Detail
Welcome to the Oracle Challenge, the contest that tests your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!

Changes for spring 2006

Please note the new scoring system. The rest of the rules are the same as before.

The Challenge

For each match in the GameFAQs Sprint Contest you need to pick a winner and predict the percentage of the vote they will receive. New participants are still being accepted until at least the end of round 3 (please indicate that you are new and make a minimum of three picks).

Post your predictions in this topic, one prediction per line. Your predictions must start with the name of your winner and end with your predicted percentage. Examples:

Link with 85%
Link 55.13%
Link over CATS with 67.55%
Link - 77.5%

Please use one of these formats, and always remember to include the % sign. Predictions are entered into our database by a script, which may miss your predictions if you use a weird format.

The Scoring

For each match you will earn points based on how close your guess was to the actual outcome. Scoring is cumulative and the winner of the Oracle Challenge will be the person with the most points at the end of the final match. For each match you can earn anywhere from 0 and 50 points. The scoring system works as follows:

Correctly choosing the winner earns you 50-x points.
Incorrectly choosing the winner earns you 45-x points.
(Where x is the difference between your guess and the character's actual percentage.)

Example:

Your guess: Link with 65%
My guess: CATS with 55%
Actual result: Link 60%, CATS 40%
Your score: 50 - (65-60) = 45 points
My score: 45 - (55-40) = 30 points

The Rules

It is necessary to have a few rules to keep the challenge running smoothly. They are:

1) A valid entry consists of a clear pick and prediction (i.e. Link with 85.03%). The prediction must be greater than or equal to 50.00%.
2) Your prediction does not need to be different from everybody else?s. However, intentional and continuous prediction mimicry will not be allowed.
3) All predictions must be made five minutes before the usual start time of that match?s poll (approx. 11:55pm EST, 10:55am CST, 8:55pm PST). Predictions submitted after this time will not be counted or may be subject to penalty. No predictions will be accepted after a poll has started, regardless of the start time.
4) You may change your prediction for any match at any time, subject to the rules above. Please indicate clearly that this is a change to a previous entry.
5) You may not delete any post in a prediction topic (if you do, please post immediately after to explain the deletion). This is to prevent abuse of the above rule and to reduce confusion.
6) If you post with an alt, you must clearly state the name of your main account. (Exception: if the alt is listed on your user profile page <http://oraclechallenge.com/profiles.php?type=users>, I already know about it).
7) You may predict matches in advance if you need to. Please tell me beforehand so we can arrange this.
8) I reserve the right to disqualify a pick for any justifiable reason.

Team Challenge

In addition to the main Oracle Challenge, this time we are testing a side contest involving teams. The rules for the team challenge are simple:

1. Sign up with a partner before the beginning of the first match.
2. Make just one prediction per match - it counts for the Oracle Challenge and the Oracle Team Challenge.
3. Your team score for the day is equal to both team members' scores added together.
4. If one player misses a prediction, the team will get either (partner's score * 2) or (partner's score + average score for the day), whichever is lower. This is to keep teams from being eliminated by one missed prediction, and ONLY applies to the team scores.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:51:30 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: alpha door | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:52:03 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Official Chrono Trigger Fan
Nominate Marina Liteyears for SC2k6!!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:52:31 PM | Message Detail
ORACLE WEBSITE
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/

Knowing how quickly this topic can move around the end of the poll, I decided to get this up now. We are now accepting predictions for all round 2 matches and all known round 3 matches:

ROUND 2
Snake Division
Castlevania vs Kingdom Hearts

Mushroom Division
Super Mario Bros. vs Warcraft
Sonic the Hedgehog vs Super Smash Bros.

Ultima Division
Final Fantasy vs Mega Man
Street Fighter vs Resident Evil

ROUND 3
The Legend of Zelda vs Metroid

Let the Oracle Challenge test your prediction abilities down to the hundredth of a percent!
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:52:52 PM | Message Detail
Tag.

And I might as well enter a Round 3 prediction now:

Legend of Zelda over Metroid with 81.24%
---
Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:53:57 PM | Message Detail
That'll teach me to copy and paste... the deleted message had the same wrong match as last topic.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:54:10 PM | Message Detail
Legend of Zelda over Metroid with 73.45%
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
From: BBallman7 | Posted: 7/20/2006 4:04:56 PM | Message Detail
Zelda with 74.38%
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Nina: Hes gonna put a bullet in my head before I can say hello, and then he'll turn the gun on himself
Jack: We'll make sure he doesn't turn the gun on himself
From: Soup Blade | Posted: 7/20/2006 4:22:11 PM | Message Detail
round 2

Kingdom Hearts with 53.22%
---
lol internet redux
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 7/20/2006 4:24:01 PM | Message Detail
Zelda with 73.95%
From: Agent M | Posted: 7/20/2006 4:32:52 PM | Message Detail
Castlevania with 50.01%

Super Mario Bros. with 66%
Sonic with 51%

Final Fantasy with 80%
Resident Evil with 54%

Third Round:

The Legend of Zelda with 75%
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/20/2006 5:31:43 PM | Message Detail
Time for a REpost

Castlevania with 52.44%

Super Mario Bros. with 70.35%
Super Smash Bros. with 51.22%

Final Fantasy with 78.32%
Resident Evil with 56.09%
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 7/20/2006 5:43:44 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 7/20/2006 5:43:57 PM | Message Detail
Legend of Zelda with 74.56%
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Madden sucks BECAUSE it revolutionized the sports game industry. - Crazyhead
From: Camden | Posted: 7/20/2006 5:48:30 PM | Message Detail
We need King Morgoth to come in here and give Kaxon a stern talking to about deleting messages. Don't think you're fooling me!

Castlevania with 54.1%
Super Mario Bros with 75.3%
Super Smash Bros with 52.9%
Final Fantasy with 77.8%
Resident Evil with 60.2%

The Legend of Zelda with 79.3%
---
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
Don’t worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
From: ActJef1077 | Posted: 7/20/2006 5:52:39 PM | Message Detail
I am not at all confident about the CV/KH matchup

Castlevania with 50.54%

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Call me Jeff! Official midget of The Book Club
If you paint a W on each of your buttcheeks and do cartwheels it will say WoW MoM WoW! -C Bar
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:09:16 PM | Message Detail
Castlevania with 59.00%
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: TheKnightOfNee | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:11:14 PM | Message Detail
The Legend of Zelda with 78.88%
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Kingdom Hearts with 50.89%

I hate myself for changing my Metal Gear prediction...
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Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:12:56 PM | Message Detail
tag!
---
“Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse
Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:23:06 PM | Message Detail
Change -

Super Mario Bros. with 73.26%
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:28:41 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Castlevania with 53.00%
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:33:55 PM | Message Detail
Hey ad00, nice storm up here!

Mandatory Safety-Pick-Because-Electricity-Is-About-To-Be-No-More

Castlevania with 51.00%
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:38:31 PM | Message Detail
We need King Morgoth to come in here and give Kaxon a stern talking to about deleting messages. Don't think you're fooling me!

I'm keeping an eye on it ;)
---
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:39:33 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE:

Castlevania with 53.33%
---
“Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse
Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 7/20/2006 6:50:07 PM | Message Detail
Castlevania with 55.03%

That's right, .01% higher than it did against Halo


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
From: PeaceOut64 | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:08:05 PM | Message Detail
Change

Castlevania with 51.5%
---
My goal since I joined the Leafs has always been to have on the ice a team as good as our fans. We have never quite gotten there. Some day we will. - Ken Dryden
From: Darkash | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:26:04 PM | Message Detail
Quite honestly, I think this is the easiest pick I've had in a while

Castlevania w/58.02%

Is KH that weak? More like is HM that weak, if you ask me.

ONE TIME!
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1st place in scientist pg's TLoZ MM riddle contest!
12th in the SpC2k4 Oracle Challenge!
From: trannyscience | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:40:48 PM | Message Detail
time to chicken out and join the bandwagon!

change: Castlevania with 54.21%
---
yzzyx
From: WiggumFan267 | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:41:51 PM | Message Detail
Tag

---
Pick: KH > CV Vote: KH, Score: 20/22/96
Happily married to Alanna82 on V-Day 2005
From: Ness26 | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:59:22 PM | Message Detail
Change:

Kingdom Hearts with 53.22%
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Best. Board/Card Game. Ever Contest:
http://www.bracketmaker.com/tlist.cfm?tid=171196
From: GameBopAdv | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:59:50 PM | Message Detail
HCANGE!!!!

Kingdom Hearts with 56.75%
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I need to get a PS3 on release date in order to sell it and make enough profit to be able to afford to have a PS3. ~ jr0102
From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:05:49 PM | Message Detail
Kingdom Hearts with 52%
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:07:05 PM | Message Detail
I think this match will make a lasting impact in the standings, not just because of the split picks but also because the %age predictions are all over the place.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
From: Weird Kirby Dude11 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:08:55 PM | Message Detail
Kingdom Hearts with 54%
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Weird Kirby Dude - spud2002 is alive! >_>
Every fanboy war degenerates to a flame war over whether each debater likes the Halo series or not. -Android21A
From: phlyerphan1 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:10:43 PM | Message Detail
Round 2 new predictions:

Super Mario Bros. with 78.25%
Super Smash Bros. with 68.69%
Final Fantasy with 74.05%

Round 2 update:

Resident Evil with 54.94%
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:11:33 PM | Message Detail
I think this match will make a lasting impact in the standings, not just because of the split picks but also because the %age predictions are all over the place.

It's not 45-2x anymore, it'll only shake things a bit...though everyone is really close together.... and I really need to fix that yellow box...
---
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: phlyerphan1 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:12:06 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, I think I'm overestimating KH.

CHANGE

Kingdom Hearts with 63.29%
From: RX7InfinitiIII | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:32:10 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE:

Kingdom Hearts with 58.36%


RX7
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:34:58 PM | Message Detail
lolx tells me

Alucard (2005c) VS Sora (2005c)
Sora wins with 55.35% of the vote!

Which was actually a direct result, so there's no doubting that it's accurate. But I'm not happy with Alucard's pic for that match, and it certainly seems that Castle > SotN > Alucard, and pretty easily, whereas Sora seems a better representation for KH (they performed alike against Harvest Moon and Agent 47, both expected to be very low fodder).

But what convinces me is a certain other direct matchup, namely the one from 2004 where I told myself "Sure, this game just beat the best that the Xbox fanbase has to offer, but now it's going up against Square, the King of GameFAQs! No way its Cinderella run continues from here out."

Fool me twice, shame on me.

Castlevania with 50.89%

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: goku z | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:36:52 PM | Message Detail
Zelda over Metroid with 77.5%
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Long live Goku GT, lost August 2002 in the moderation wars of B8. 10th Place, 2005 Character Battle
From: LusterSoldier | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:42:06 PM | Message Detail
Change:

Castlevania with 54.75%
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: stingers135 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:42:38 PM | Message Detail
Zelda with 79.66%
---
Goblin God of Sexiness of The Goblin Army of OPPRESSION
Owner of Wilhelm on the Xenosaga 3 Board. Rawr.
From: Menji76 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:44:32 PM | Message Detail
CHANGE

Kingdom Hearts 57.82%

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Board 8's #1 Duke fan; http://www.theautolog.com
Now Playing; SSBM, ToS, FF2, HSG4
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:44:43 PM | Message Detail
NEW:

Super Mario Bros. with 70.4%
Super Smash Bros. with 52.23%

Final Fantasy with 75.8%
Resident Evil with 56.44%
---
“Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse
Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar
From: FlamboyantSpy | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:45:34 PM | Message Detail
CV with 55.03%

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
From: stingers135 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:45:51 PM | Message Detail
Kingdom Hearts with 52.76%

Its 15 minutes away, but I think it was changed to 5...right?
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Goblin God of Sexiness of The Goblin Army of OPPRESSION
Owner of Wilhelm on the Xenosaga 3 Board. Rawr.
From: Camden | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:51:31 PM | Message Detail
Castlevania with 53.3%
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Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud
Don’t worry. Have a nectarine. -Christopher Walken
From: Fett0001 | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:52:48 PM | Message Detail
Super Smash Bros. with 65.81%

Ultima Division
Final Fantasy with 78.2%
Resident Evil with 53.45%

ROUND 3
The Legend of Zelda 78.5%
From: TessaTestarossa | Posted: 7/20/2006 8:56:00 PM | Message Detail
Applekidjosh here

Kingdom Hearts with 55.32%
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Kingdom Hearts > Metal Gear. BOOK IT
Applekidjosh
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