Your gut seemed to do ya fine this round ^_^

Yeah, but I had Meta Knight up there but changed.


-ЧRÀG£-
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/index.php?file=predictions


You can view everybodies predictions there.

****
****
**** FSDFKSJDFKS:IF:GJ

Day after I get on the top 10 I forget to post my prediction =(

GOD DAMN YOU GUITAR HERO!

Any chance I can use my analysis topic as proof of my pick, since I've been using the same numbers all contest for both my oracle and my analysis?

TuRtLe
~~~
28/32 in the contest. Next pick: Sephiroth > Peach
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

For the record, my pick will suck completely since it was made thinking MK would be fodderific.

TuRtLe
~~~
28/32 in the contest. Next pick: Sephiroth > Peach
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

**** that blew. today may not be a ton better
---
Cokes
Jubilant Exuberance

daniel2424 | Posted 9/10/2007 9:36:00 PM | message detail
I remember that this was possible in previous years, and I think I tried to do the same secret as last year, but is there a way to see what other people have predicted for future matches, or for today's match for example?

You'll have to check each predictor individually if you really want to. The "secret" way doesn't work anymore due to a change in the coding....
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

On the oracle site there's a predictions link at the top
---
If I had written the book, I would have made it so the spirit of man pops out of Winston and socks O'Brien in the face really hard...

Get on AIM BT....
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

I wasn't able to get on the board to make a prediction today...I guess I am finished for the contest. T_T
---
Tooi Kono Machi De-"daisuki datta ano uta furui teepu no naka chiisana kizu iro aseta taitoru nijinda yoake"

AGH, my prediction sucks. It looks like to me that Peach/Meta Knight/CATS is a lot more brutal than Zolom/Ocelot/Jill (I'm sure Sehy will bring it's percentage up a bunch, but not to 61%...)... its looking like Peach and MK aren't sucking that many votes away from each other, and MK might be stronger than ANY of the other guys. And, of course, CATS is far ahead of Zolom.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Just a random thought that came to my head at 1 AM, but I know a lot of people get unlucky and miss one day and ruin their chances (like I did in either 03 or 04, which ever one I was actually leading in...which is why I always predict a week in advance now) Obviously we can't implement it this year, but for people who just miss one or two days throught the year, what about a base default of giving them a predicion of 25% for all four characters. This would work a lot better with this 4 man format (no penalties) and would save people who sign on an hour late or press enter a few minutes late.
If they rely on this a third time, they could just be out or some baseball reference I dont know, pardon my night time rambling...
---
If you think the fastest way to a man's heart is through his stomach, you're aiming about 8 inches too high.

Yeah, I'm so screwed on this one. I had Meta-Knight pegged as uber fodder with Peach still getting screwed by his presence. I may very well be off by over 10% on Sephiroth.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Wow, I've moved up the rankings on every single match. Really funny considering I've pretty much hated all of my predictions so far. Guess it says a lot for how bad my day 1 predictions were too.

If only Sephiroth could crush these 3 in the day I'd be looking pretty good.

7th best pick and then I forget to predict!
---
Rock > Paper, you know it.

It was that stupid CS&D topic that completely shut out my considerations of Meta Knight competing with Peach. I -never- want to listen to them again...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

No daniel, just no. Give yourself the chance to predict a week in advance because you have the ability to. This contest is not for those who forget get about it. Some call it bad luck, the others call it lasck of devotion. I enjoy predicting the day of the match, don't take that away from me ;)

-ЧRÀG£-
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Sig it and it will happen.

I just through some guesses a few days in advance as safety but I make changes throughout the day it comes on.

---
Menji - Board 8's #1 Duke Fan Diamond: 4424 8857 3905
SC2K7; 26 Points; T-5th; Next Pick; Sephiroth > Peach

King Morgoth:
Ryu - 32.00%
Bowser - 27.5%
Mewtwo - 24.75%
Toad - 11.50%

Of course, SFF-fest and all. Anyway, to give an idea, Bowser had some decent SFFing, but only lost around 20% of his strength. Hrm... shoulda put this into consideration when predicting Peach/MK/CATS/Sephiroth.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Obviously we can't implement it this year, but for people who just miss one or two days throught the year, what about a base default of giving them a predicion of 25% for all four characters. This would work a lot better with this 4 man format (no penalties) and would save people who sign on an hour late or press enter a few minutes late.

I don't know about this, that seems pretty lenient.

I think maybe there could just be an "Average" leaderboard featured prominently on the navigation? With maybe min predictions being 3/4 of matches up to that point or something. This feature should be easier to code than most (though it would still take the time and effort of our noble Oracle overlords).

The one feature that I'd love more than anything is an all-time average %ile standings (e.g., if you placed 40th out of 80 entries your %ile would like 50). That would show above all other things how skilled you really are. But that would be a bit more time consuming probably.


It was that stupid CS&D topic that completely shut out my considerations of Meta Knight competing with Peach. I -never- want to listen to them again...

Hey now, you must not have read my posts then :) Actually there were a few people whispering about this the past few days, and nobody really arguing against it. Only problem was that people were far more caught up in CATS>Peach, which I thought was much less likely.

I only Oracle predicted 13% for Meta Knight but that's because I was making a safe choice, as he also had some downside risk. I actually figured he'd get like 15% and Peach like 16%-17%.

I thought Sephiroth would suffer less though, I figured there would be more overlap between Meta Knight and Peach than their seems to be. Also Meta Knight might collapse with the day vote, but should still finish comfortably ahead of where most people had him.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

No daniel, just no. Give yourself the chance to predict a week in advance because you have the ability to. This contest is not for those who forget get about it. Some call it bad luck, the others call it lasck of devotion. I enjoy predicting the day of the match, don't take that away from me ;)

Good point. Since we can predict so far in advance, missing predictions is kinda shady. It's not hard to make safety predictions at all. If you really don't want to predict early, just safety predict 25% each character on your own :)

Don't get me wrong, I do have sympathy for those that miss predictions. But it's easy to plan ahead for that.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

I only have sympathy for those who miss matches in the later rounds, because in the earlier rounds you practically have WEEKS to predict all matches.

Okay, I do remember you giving some respect to Meta Knight. When I brought up Meta Knight being near Ness as even a possibility (and nothing more than that), people starting mashing me to no end.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

So much to comment on....I love it!

Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/9/2007 11:12:01 PM | message detail
Nah, I would rather go to EB and buy one myself... you wouldn't find many PAL games in the States anyway, would you? =/
I'm pretty sure we could find a way to ship it from some online retailer in Europe or something =P


Yeah, we did everything with a spreadsheet up until the Villains contest, when there were less people than now... it still took a lot of time. For summer 2005, I made a MySQL database and wrote a Python script that parses the topic and puts all the predictions in the database. That's why we're so picky about things like percent signs. Entering predictions is MUCH faster than before now. The web site runs of the same database so we don't really have to update the site (just put everything in the DB).

It would be nice to have live updating scores on the site... I'm not sure if Morgoth wants to do any more work on that site right now though. =)

---> A Little Oracle History <---
The real story is that I used a 20MB Excel file back when we had 70-80 people per day and it took roughly 1.5-2 hours updating every day. I couldn't do it alone for much longer, Kaxon came up with the crazy idea of doing something remotely professional since he already knew SQL and Python. Thanks to that and some self-taught PHP (I turned out to be an ok programmer after all...) I wrote the website from scratch, from its very simple beginnings to the 1000 hits/day monster it is now. Entering predictions takes maybe 15 minutes/day now, and that's for over 600 predictions each day! The Oracle wouldn't be anymore if it wasn't for the switch...

As far as live scores are concerned, it's something that would be (surprisingly?) easy to do. The biggest problem is that usually predictions aren't up to date in the database. It's not getting done this week, but it might be a very serious possibility in the future...
Once I fix all those little details nobody noticed except me =P


daniel2424 | Posted 9/10/2007 10:01:13 PM | message detail
Just a random thought that came to my head at 1 AM, but I know a lot of people get unlucky and miss one day and ruin their chances (like I did in either 03 or 04, which ever one I was actually leading in...which is why I always predict a week in advance now) Obviously we can't implement it this year, but for people who just miss one or two days throught the year, what about a base default of giving them a predicion of 25% for all four characters. This would work a lot better with this 4 man format (no penalties) and would save people who sign on an hour late or press enter a few minutes late.
If they rely on this a third time, they could just be out or some baseball reference I dont know, pardon my night time rambling...

We thought about giving half the worst score or something like that at some point but, in the end, advance picks are there for a reason and you shouldn't ever miss a match. And I don't expect you to miss a match that way since you already learned the hard way ;)


Haste_2 | Posted 9/10/2007 10:14:24 PM | message detail
It was that stupid CS&D topic that completely shut out my considerations of Meta Knight competing with Peach. I -never- want to listen to them again...

You're supposed to be entertained by them, not actually listen to what they say >_>
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

creativename | Posted 9/10/2007 11:11:45 PM | message detail

I think maybe there could just be an "Average" leaderboard featured prominently on the navigation? With maybe min predictions being 3/4 of matches up to that point or something. This feature should be easier to code than most (though it would still take the time and effort of our noble Oracle overlords).

The one feature that I'd love more than anything is an all-time average %ile standings (e.g., if you placed 40th out of 80 entries your %ile would like 50). That would show above all other things how skilled you really are. But that would be a bit more time consuming probably.

I could see something being done about the Average board but I wouldn't know where to put it exactly under the current setup....it's something that could be done rather easily though...

As for the percentiles, I'd rather just finish up coding actual standings for PAA's which I believe are a much better indicator than %iles...

I only Oracle predicted 13% for Meta Knight but that's because I was making a safe choice, as he also had some downside risk. I actually figured he'd get like 15% and Peach like 16%-17%.

I thought Sephiroth would suffer less though, I figured there would be more overlap between Meta Knight and Peach than their seems to be. Also Meta Knight might collapse with the day vote, but should still finish comfortably ahead of where most people had him.

I thought MK would bomb to Hell. And I'm so wrong it's not even funny...


Haste_2 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:24:01 PM | message detail
I only have sympathy for those who miss matches in the later rounds, because in the earlier rounds you practically have WEEKS to predict all matches.

It used to be easier to give people more time back in the day, but with the script and the huge participation it's an insane chaos when we mix two rounds...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Summary! - Contest Day 7

1) People want to see Pyramid Head back but he's going to have to compete with so many people we'll want to see back he'll probably get snubbed again...Lots of support in here though. I love hwo the comments basically range from badass to aw yeah!.

2) This is what happens when I ask a question before studying it throughly. I think it was N on AIM yesterday that asked me who the hell Sonic would lose to anyway. And the answer is wither nobody or himself. Think about it...

3) The scoring system?
Yay: 15
Nay: 8
Where are the penalties?: 8
Thanks for the support creative!: 1

Better reaction than I expected! Honestly, I'm still annoyed that there are no penalties at all but I really couldn't figure out a way to make it possible...
Kaxon and I are still looking at how we'll tweak the /4. The scores are definitely too high right now but we don,t want to change it every week so we'll wait a bit more....

4) lol free games
Realists: 10
Idealists: 4
Crazy folks: 2
Ngamers being the obnoxious bastard only he can afford to be: 1 :)

Some people's hopes are...interesting <_<

Comment of the day:
2) After a run of shoddy games and a new Playstation generation filling the ranks of the 13+ crowd, I don't think the series, that is to say, that games from South Africa and Iraq are... uh... *runs*

Morgoth smiled of the day:
All we ever had in our favor was our numbers... another couple of thousand new entrants, and you'll be sweating bullets!

Morgoth's injury of the day:
Never did. Well, technically and mathematically we have a shot, just a really small shot. Really small. REALLY. Let's see what'll happen first ; somebody randomly dropping a needle from space and hitting KM in the head, or a perfect in this here shebang.
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Morgoth et Kaxon:

I dunno if you have either of them (I'm assuming not as they're relatively young), but if not, could you add this account and CherryCokes to my list of accounts?
---
Cokes
Jubilant Exuberance

oh man, my pick today is awful. ah well, so is everybody else's probably.. just not as bad as mine.

You're supposed to be entertained by them, not actually listen to what they say >_>

hey now, the stats topic regs are actually dominating the leaderboard.
---
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch

Coax311 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:34:03 PM | message detail
Morgoth et Kaxon:

I dunno if you have either of them (I'm assuming not as they're relatively young), but if not, could you add this account and CherryCokes to my list of accounts?

CherryCokes is already in there, Coax will be easy to figure out once your post with it in the other topic =P


transience | Posted 9/10/2007 11:39:32 PM | message detail
hey now, the stats topic regs are actually dominating the leaderboard.

Now, not to sound like an ass but I'm the sole leading guru and 15th on the leaderboard, so I'm not doing bad myself despite not listening to them =P
And even you will have to agree that they're very good at being wrong when they're very vocal about a pick pre-contest. I'm totally not talking about Midna too =P
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

And because nothing means losing control over a topic like having dozens of people answering questions....

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions! - Contest Day 8
1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
3) Toad vs Ness?
4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.
5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

As for the percentiles, I'd rather just finish up coding actual standings for PAA's which I believe are a much better indicator than %iles...

I'm not sure what you mean. What's a PAA, and why would it be better than %iles? Rank %iles account for varying entrant pools better than anything else I think.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

creativename | Posted 9/11/2007 12:05:02 AM | message detail
As for the percentiles, I'd rather just finish up coding actual standings for PAA's which I believe are a much better indicator than %iles...

I'm not sure what you mean. What's a PAA, and why would it be better than %iles? Rank %iles account for varying entrant pools better than anything else I think.

Points Above Averages. I think that rank %iles rely on luck and distribution (think Starcraft/WW) while PAAs are a more "standard" indicator. One point over average is just as good whether you ranked 35th or 57th...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Not very. Most would obviously disagree, but then this contest clearly has a lot of predictable unpredictability; given that two of those three have surprised already, it makes sense that we'd see another surprise. The best bet I think is Auron>Bowser=>Ryu; Bowser/Ryu is tough, but Auron seems like the favorite. But it's not even impossible for Auron to finish 3rd.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

I guess so. I have 24 points, but me having Peach to round 3 is the first thing that's really going to hurt point-wise.

3) Toad vs Ness?

Ness I guess? I don't have as much faith in Ness as others probably do though.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

I'd take him over Gordon, Ness, and probably over DK, Tidus and Yuna, though I'd have to think about Yuna. Probably wouldn't take him over Knuckles, and wouldn't over Yoshi.

But Mewtwo probably got hurt by fanbase leeching/splitting with Bowser, so he's gotta be closer to Ryu than this poll suggests at face value.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

I'd have to go with Meta Knight right now, just because I don't have much faith in Peach's day/afterschool vote. But Meta Knight's might be worse.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions! - Contest Day 8
1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Too crazy for words, HOWEVER, I think the Ryu topping Bowser crowd is nearly as nutzo. Mewtwo's a legit Contest threat, I think yesterday proved that, and there was no shame in Koops not being able to SFF him. Toad stealing all those votes was more or less a given... but with Bowser the only N-option, I don't see it as a problem to advance. Beating Auron though is another matter entirely... I really can't justify that pick at this point.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

Nay, I like my Auron > Bowser > Ryu (in a tight one) > Shadow pick. I could easily see Ryu holding a lead into the early morning hours, but I don't think it will be big enough to save him from his traditional day collapse.

3) Toad vs Ness?

Poor Ness, always thrown into these situations. I think Toad could give him a run, maybe make a decent push in the day, but would still back Ness in something like a 53/47 affair.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?

Yoshi > Knuckles > Yuna > DK > Mewtwo > Tidus > Ness > Gordon

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

Peach, and I honestly don't think it'll be a problem for her. Meta's had 2 hours here during what I'd imagine is his prime time, and hasn't done anything after his hot start. As I speak Peach just cut another 10 from his lead here in the dead of night... what's to make me believe that MK's going to hold up well once the sun comes up, when Luigi used those same morning hours to take a commanding lead on the much more "kiddie-friendly" Kirby?

And keep in mind Peach has already proven she's got the fan support to pull out a tight one if this has to go to the wire.

---
The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats

Points Above Averages. I think that rank %iles rely on luck and distribution (think Starcraft/WW) while PAAs are a more "standard" indicator. One point over average is just as good whether you ranked 35th or 57th...

Ah, I see. Yes, I can see how that might have some advantages over average %ile.

Though some matches will have lower averages than others - and much more importantly, some scoring systems will have lower averages than others. Thus giving a slight advantage to people who participated in contests with higher averages, as their points above average would be scaled up. Maybe point % above average? e.g. 3.5 points above average in a match where the average score was 35 points would be +10%?

You could also do average Z-scores (which also sounds cooler, everybody loves the letter Z!), though PAA or %PAA is more straightforward for people to understand. And penalties would make point distributions non-normal though so I don't now how valid that would be.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
That's pretty darn bold. I'm thinking Bowser getting third is more likely than
first. Ryu beat Bowser by 8%, and we're seeing Meta Knight and Peach dismantle Face CATS, and hold up to Sephiroth pretty well, despite both being from Nintendo. So, damage from SFF may not be as big as some have thought.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
Erm... if Ryu pulls through, and Sonic, I'd be fine. So far, I am screwed, though. I mean, I have CATS getting second to Sephiroth in Round 2... =p

3) Toad vs Ness?
If Ness was in that poll with Bowser and them, I think Ness would've done a little better. I think he'd beat Toad, too.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
He'd beat Ness, Gordon, Tidus... probably DK, too. I don't think he'd beat Yuna, Yoshi, or Knuckles. Mewtwo got quite a bit closer to Bowser than I expected yesterday.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
Meta Knight, but I can't be confident... at all... especially since MK winning seems too good to be true... (not literally for me, but for many of the vets)

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

I've been *very* confident in Auron > Bowser since the bracket was announced and I see no reason to change. Bowser did worse than I was hoping, but I like to blame Mewtwo for that, not Bowser. Ryu is certainly in the conversation (I had him to round four for a while, but backed off of it), but Bowser should be looked at as the favourite to advance.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

no one's bracket is screwed at this point. round 1 in this contest is going to end up being meaningless when you start looking at the other big-points matches. the only way your bracket is screwed is if you had Jill advancing out of her division or something.. in which case I'd say your bracket was screwed before the contest even started.

3) Toad vs Ness?

Toad.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

beats Ness easily. beats Gordon. loses to Yuna. loses to Yoshi. goes 50/50 with DK. ...beats Tidus. loses to Knuckles.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

give me Peach in a "uhhhh who knows" decision.
---
---
"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Definitely crazy to some extent, but you have to be to call some of these things.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

Mine was screwed from the beginning, since I pretty much chose my favorite in any debated match (and a couple not-even-debated ones).

3) Toad vs Ness?

Ness. Not a blowout or anything, but not really close either.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?

Ness, Gordon, DK for sure. Probably Tidus. Maybe Yuna. Not Knuckles or Yoshi.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

I'm rooting for Meta-Knight, since I have CATS in my bracket, but I think it'll be Peach.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
Crazy Crazy. Well, not really. Bowser is still a beast, regardless of these results. I have Ryu moving on and I still think it'd be a huge upset.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
Depends really. Rd1 doesn't seem that important when everyone screwed it up at once. Most important for me is that MC and Ryu make it to the quaterfinals. Almost nothing else can completely throw me out of the running...

3) Toad vs Ness?
Ness without a second thought.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, DK, Knuckles would be my picks. Especially after today, I have a feeling he'd do well against any Nintendo chars. Gordon is forever a choker. Knuckles would actually stump me, but I'd take the upset because I'd bet few others would. Yoshi, Tidus and Yuna just seem out of reach though.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
CATS is still coming back. Don't you dare deny it. If you mean who'll take Third, then I'd say Peach. Meta is going to bomb come sunrise.

---
Rufus>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7

Without looking, I'll try some answers....
Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions! - Contest Day 8
1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
Pretty crazy?

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
I think it looks really good yet, really good in general but it has a few interesting interrogation points (MC?)

3) Toad vs Ness?
Ness. Not a nailbiter but a close match nonetheless...

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.
I think I would take him over everyone except Yoshi on that list. And I'd think at least twice against Knux and Yuna. But he really impressed me yesterday...

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
Meta Knight takes it. Peach is on a more night-vote pattern than he is, he'll just rip her apart when the kiddies wake up
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions! - Contest Day 8
1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Not very, Bowser proved that his fans aren't all THAT loyal. Shadow stealing enough votes to put Ryu over wouldn't surprise me.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

I have Seph > CATS in round 2. Yup.

3) Toad vs Ness?

Ness, solely because of the playable in Smash factor. That and I can't see Toad beating CJ.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

He would beat...no doubt Ness, Gordon, Tidus, DK.
He could possibly beat Knuckles and Yuna.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

Meta-Knight if he keeps this into the day vote. He saw that the less popular Mario characters tend to lose out during the day to other Nintendo character. Now Meta-Knight is no Mewtwo, but Peach isn't exactly a Bowser.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

I think you're fairly crazy. Bowser vs Auron would be very close one on one, and I'd probably take Auron there after seeing what he did the other day. In a multiway poll, I think it's clear that Auron's more of a favorite than Bowser. Throw in the fact that Shadow and Ryu will probably hurt Bowser more than they hurt Auron - not a huge amount, but a few percent would put the match completely out of Bowser's reach.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

I never had much faith in my bracket. My biggest problems so far are having Jill and Midna in round 3 (those are my only problems, really). So theoretically my bracket could turn out well.

3) Toad vs Ness?

After yesterday I'd take Ness. It seems like no one likes Toad, which makes me sad.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat?

Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

Ness and Gordon for sure, DK and Tidus most likely, maybe Yuna, definitely not Knuckles or Yoshi.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

Right now I actually think Peach might be the favorite. Meta Knight's entire lead was built on the Nintendo Power Hour. If that reflects the day vote, then Peach is dead. But if that was just the hardcore fans, Peach may come back and win.
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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

...time to answer Question 1. I misread it.



VERY...VERY CRAZY
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Not that crazy. I personally have Auron > Bowser but I think it's pretty common consensus that Bowser will bounce back to beat Ryu next round. Putting him over Auron is brave but could pay off.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

At the minute it's not too bad. I'm on the leaderboard but I expect it to screw up pretty soon because of the blunder I mentioned yesterday.

3) Toad vs Ness?

Ness although not by much.


4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

I'll go with the safety picks. He'd beat Ness and Gordon. It'd be close against Tidus and DK and he'd lose to the rest.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?

My bracket says Peach. My oracle says Meta Knight will bomb. Taking that into account, Meta Knight is totally going to ruin me isn't he?

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Character Battle: 24/28 ; ;
Oracle: 30th Team Oracle: 21st (Partner: BZer0)

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?

Well, not much crazy. Auron should take 1st, while Bowser 2nd. Ryu did that well because of 3 Nintendo characters


2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?

Yeah, just 22 points <.<


3) Toad vs Ness?

Prediction? Ness wins, duh, although I like Toad more


4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness, Gordon, Yuna, Yoshi, DK, Tidus, Knuckles.

First, I don't think he deserves to come back. WTF, a pokemon? Nah, the only that should come back is Mudkip, and it's not for the fad, I liked him even before I knew it. And for those, he might defeat Ness and Gordon. Maybe DK, but I seriously doubt it. Not a chance vs. the others.


5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
Peach, Meta-knight isn't building a good lead
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Onimimi's films rules!

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
Auron>Bowser, but I expect it to be fairly close between all three.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
yeah...mine's been screwed since Jill lost...

3) Toad vs Ness?
Ness. hardcore fanbase + brawl recognition > being a confused mushroom who thinks he's a frog.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness - Yes, Gordon - Yes, Yuna - No, Yoshi - No, DK - No, Tidus - No, Knuckles - No.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
Peach...I hope...
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Is Supdawg
He does. I seen it with my own two eyes!

jesus christ meta-knight

I don't even care about my bracket anymore. I just get tired of seeing my Oracle fluctuate like crazy every day. >_>
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This was KING BELLIS LOL

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
Not totally crazy, but you'd better hope there's a huge bloc of Nintendo-loyal voters who like Toad or Mewtwo better than Bowser. And you'd better hope they haven't adopted Ryu as one of their own like they have with Pac-Man and Mega Man.

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
Hard to say. Sephiroth over Meta-Knight puts me at 28 points after today. Mario over Sephiroth in the match where they both advance might make up for a lot of wrong, but it will have a lot of wrong to make up for. I wish I'd taken Squall over Akuma again in the match with Sora.

3) Toad vs Ness?
Gut says Ness, head says Toad can't be too far behind.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
Ness - Mewtwo wins with a percentage in the comfortable upper 50's.
Gordon - Mewtwo wins, but doesn't do as well as you might think. I don't see many fair-weather fans of Gordon Freeman being swayed by a handheld RPG character.
Yuna - Mewtwo makes it look respectable but loses with something in the 40's.
Yoshi - Mewtwo gets flutter-kicked and tail-smashed to the tune of a doubling or so. Definitely not buying Mewtwo as a fan-favorite who can hold his voters against big boys from his own company, Bowser be damned.
DK - ...is a totally different story, however. Mewtwo could win this; he'd be very close at the least. But I don't respect the ape too much against Nintendo opposition at all. Matches like this have a weird referendum-on-Smash-Brothers feel to them, and Mewtwo is at least viewed as kind of fun to play as.
Tidus - Another match Mewtwo could win narrowly, and I'll pick him to do so.
Knuckles - Mewtwo can't take Knux, no way. He'll probably land somewhere in the low 40's.

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
MK is building his lead and will surely win, but I'm cheating by responding at 4:45 PM when the question was asked in the wee hours of the morning. Nyah nyah.
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Champions of Time and Space: The Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project
http://crolapras.tripod.com/ffproj.html

There's no way Yoshi could double Mewtwo IMO. It would have to be SFF, Yoshi can't do that legit. And I don't see how Yoshi gets SFF over Mewtwo.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

1) Bowser > Auron > Ryu - That's still my call next round. How crazy am I?
Quite a lot IMO. Heh. Seriously though, I think you're putting to much on SFF on Bowser's match, and I think the beating that Ryu gave him was far more impressive that Bowser going against Nintendo SFF. I have Bowser going far, but on Round 2 getting second against Auron, though I'm not liking my chances of him advancing for now (which would really kill my bracket)

2) Alright, now that you've said my bracket's screwed, is yours too?
I think I started to answer this question on the other one, but like I said, it can be over for me if Bowser doesn't get out of Round 2. Thus far in Round 1 I've been doing fine, with Midna being the worst pick so far. Also, females have **** my bracket so far.

3) Toad vs Ness?
Ness in a heartbeat. Toad did very good in his match, I have to say it, but I think that Ness has a nice fanbase, and we know he is capable of winning matches.

4) Not bothering to ask if Mewtwo deserves to come back, we all know he will. Easy one, out of those, who would he beat ?
(in parenthesis what I think Mewtwo would get on them)

Ness(57%), Gordon(54%), Yuna(45%), Yoshi(38%), DK(52%), Tidus(48%), Knuckles(42%).

5) Ngamer suggested poll: Peach or Meta Knight, who'll take 2nd today?
*sigh*

Bet you're kicking yourself for that change now, huh KM?

And finally, I might get an upset right that few others called. Of course my oracle won't be much better to show for it, but same thing happened with Ryu/Bowser.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

I can't wait to calculate the x-stats for today's match! (except for Wario's part ;_;)

King Morgoth:
Sephiroth - 49.00%
Meta Knight - 22.75%
Princess Peach - 19.75%
CATS - 14.75%

I really like this. Makes reasonable numbers for MK and Peach, given they should've SFFed each other, and CATS is almost exact with its SC2K6 strength.

Haste2:
Sephiroth - 48.00%
Meta Knight - 23.75%
Princess Peach - 20.75%
CATS - 16.25%

I like how these turned out, too... it makes sense CATS would have an inflated percentage in this environment. Not as much SFF damage here.

I'll save creative's formula for the SFF fest we're seeing right now. >_>

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."