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Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 3
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/16/2006 1:08:23 AM | Message Detail
Just in case the other one fills up...

Day 34 Extended Leaderboard:
1) Draco1214 - 1547.86
2) Karma Hunter - 1547.77
3) DSRage - 1544.68
4) cyko - 1544.36
5) Kaxon - 1543.61
6) Rodri316 - 1538.22
7) transience - 1534.75
8) King Morgoth - 1534.63
9) Ed Bellis - 1531.67
10) Salient - 1531.09

Discuss!
---
....TCELES B HSUP
From: Redtooth | Posted: 10/16/2006 1:09:02 AM | Message Detail
Yay! 3rd to last for that last prediction! weee =D

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
From: Ayvuir | Posted: 10/16/2006 11:13:07 AM | Message Detail
FINALLY snuck my way into the top 50!

The only way is up!!!
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Being drunk doesn't make me do stupid things, it gives me an excuse to do stupid things - Caelus
From: CyberMachine08 | Posted: 10/16/2006 11:16:08 AM | Message Detail
Damn!! I should've kept my prediction.

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I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585* in the Purg'D Prison
From: Seginustemple | Posted: 10/17/2006 12:12:38 AM | Message Detail
Dammit Peach stop dropping....at this rate Jill will win with over 300% of the vote!!
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I've been called an idiot many times, mostly by people with poor grammar and a small vernicular. - ExtremeM65
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/17/2006 12:21:20 AM | Message Detail
*crashes and burns*
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CB5 Points: 35/38, Current Oracle placement: 30/163
Now playing: Okami
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/17/2006 12:21:53 AM | Message Detail
Finally, I was due for a couple of decent picks in a row.
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~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: ad00 | Posted: 10/17/2006 7:29:10 PM | Message Detail
This match was my gamble to try and make some sort of comeback.

I failed. Miserably.

I STILL don't understand Peach doing so badly!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/18/2006 1:10:52 AM | Message Detail
Match #36 Results
Jill Valentine 49.99%
Princess Peach 50.01%

Today we were lucky enough to witness the closest match since 2004 and one of the more exciting matches in quite a while. In the end the favorite, Peach, was able to pull out the win by 27 votes... tough luck for Jill since she already had a record-setting 27 vote loss to Ryu Hayabusa. The consensus was Peach with 54.88 and the average score was 42.55. There were 104 predictions for Peach and 20 for Jill.

Best Five Picks:
1) GrapefruitKing - Princess Peach 50.10% (+49.91)
2) kaonashi1 - Princess Peach 50.40% (+49.61)
3) amyvitality66 - Princess Peach 50.52% (+49.49)
4) The n00b Avenger - Princess Peach 50.69% (+49.32)
5) Heroic Viktor - Princess Peach 50.83% (+49.18)

Surprisingly, we didn't have any 50 or 49.99 point predictions today - the scoring change seems to have successfully reduced the amount of hedging. GrapefruitKing had the best prediction of the day, his second top 5 of the contest. Kaonashi1 had the second best pick, also his second of the contest and 15th overall. Amyvitality continues to gain ground on Ray by getting the third best prediction, her first ever top 5. The n00b Avenger gets fourth (23rd lifetime top 5) and Heroic Viktor gets fifth (his 22nd lifetime top 5).

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=36

Current Leaderboard:
1) Karma Hunter - 1639.55
2) DSRage - 1636.12
3) Kaxon - 1633.82
4) cyko - 1632.84
5) Draco1214 - 1631.30

Karma Hunter manages to hang on to the lead... by 27 votes. If Jill had won we'd have a very different leaderboard, and Draco would have reclaimed the #1 spot. DSRage remains in second. Kaxon finally passes cyko, after trailing him by one position for most of the last two weeks. Cyko drops one spot to fourth, and Draco remains comfortably in fifth despite picking Jill to win the match. In the top 10, Ed Bellis moves up two spots and ps2rulezzz returns to the top 10, displacing Aprosenf.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=total&match=36

Top Team Scores:
1) Team Romanian Potato Soup - 99.23 (The n00b Avenger: +49.32 / GrapefruitKing: +49.91)
2) Team Klonoa Alliance - 97.45 (raytan7585: +47.96 / amyvitality66: +49.49)
3) Team mvp's - 92.57 (ps2rulezzz: +47.56 / basmeyer42: +45.01)
4) Team We Have Four Perfect Oracle Predictions Combined - 92.50 (Team Rocket Elite: +47.51 / Xuxon: +44.99)
5) Team Accident - 91.70 (MegatokyoEd: +45.69 / Rufus Shinra 18: +46.01)

Team Romanian Potato Soup gets the best score of the day, their first top five since day 24. Team Klonoa Alliance's sibling rivalry seems to be fuelling good predictions from both of them - they score the second best team score. Team mvp's has the third best prediction, almost 5 points below Team Klonoa Alliance. TRE and Xuxon get the fourth best score, and Team Accident has the fifth best score.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teammatch&match=36

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Unfinished FFP (Ed Bellis / Karma Hunter) - 3263.48
2) Team The Spirit of Truth (Draco1214 / Rodri316) - 3258.84
3) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3256.79
4) Team Romanian Potato Soup (The n00b Avenger / GrapefruitKing) - 3235.66
5) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 3234.74

The top three teams remain unchanged today. Team Romanian Potato Soup's great predictions boost them onto the team leaderboard in fourth, but they're still 20 points back of the top three. Team mvp's remains in fifth place with their solid picks today.

Complete Team Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teamtotal&match=36
---
....TCELES B HSUP
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 10/18/2006 1:17:58 AM | Message Detail
Wait, I'm oblivious. Scoring change?
---
This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/18/2006 1:37:38 AM | Message Detail
Back in the old days (2004 and 2005), when you picked the wrong winner you got 45-2x points instead of 45-x. This was really punishing in matches like Mario/Samus, which were expected to be close but weren't... someone who picked Mario with 50% in that match scored almost 25 points more than someone who picked Samus with 50%, despite the fact that they both were predicting a very close match.
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....TCELES B HSUP
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/18/2006 1:45:14 AM | Message Detail
Also, my theory went that the old system encouraged hedging in debated matches, because being off hurt you twice as much when you were on the wrong side of 50%, so if you were uncertain it was a lot safer to go close to 50%. It seems like the amount of hedging has decreased significantly this year, which I'm happy about.
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....TCELES B HSUP
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 10/18/2006 1:47:34 AM | Message Detail
I made a nice boost up in the standings...looks like I'll go down a little today, though. I'm honestly wondering now if Ganondorf is more popular than given credit for, and that Vincent will give Sonic a real fight.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/18/2006 3:25:49 PM | Message Detail
Well it was something you could see coming. In Round 2: Samus? overperforms. Tifa? Overperforms. Zelda? you're seeing it today.
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Happy Happyists 4th on the Oracle Team Challenge. 3rd on Spread Betting!
From: Starion | Posted: 10/18/2006 8:00:58 PM | Message Detail
Better tag this for easier access.
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Now playing: Castlevania:DOS | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/18/2006 8:03:03 PM | Message Detail
I thought a 50-2x scoring system made the most sense personally. But it ain't my contest!
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 10/18/2006 8:18:41 PM | Message Detail
Also, my theory went that the old system encouraged hedging in debated matches, because being off hurt you twice as much when you were on the wrong side of 50%, so if you were uncertain it was a lot safer to go close to 50%.

Worse yet, there was a situation in which the 45-2x penalty essentially violated the spirit of the Oracle Challenge: If you were the highest-ranked player picking the underdog in a match, the result you most wanted to see was not exactly what you predicted, but rather the underdog to win with as close to 72.5% as possible. Even if you were way too low, for every point you were losing, everyone above you was losing two (above 72.5%, they've all guaranteed to score zero and you're still losing points).
---
Champions of Time and Space: The Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project
http://crolapras.tripod.com/ffproj.html
From: DSRage_Revived | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:06:03 AM | Message Detail
Shouldve stayed with my 62% pick....


-D§R-
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Tifa is the most stylish girl in the FFVII world by far ~Vlado
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:48:26 AM | Message Detail
Nah, KOS-MOS has an awful day vote. It'll stay under 66, maybe 65, but I doubt you'll be worse off what what you got.
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Take off every sig.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:49:21 AM | Message Detail
Match #37 Results
Zelda 79.45%
Terra Branford 20.55%

Zelda follows up her 100,000 vote match with another big blowout, this time against Terra from FF VI. Do FF VI characters ever fail to fail to impress? All 125 predictors picked Zelda to win the match. The consensus was Zelda with 73.48%, and the average score was 43.83.

Best Five Picks:
1) Menji76 - Zelda 80.00% (+49.45)
1) Applekidjosh - Zelda 80.00% (+49.45)
3) the icon ownz all - Zelda 80.10% (+49.35)
4) yoshifan823 - Zelda 78.15% (+48.70)
5) plasmabeam - Zelda 77.88% (+48.43)

Menji and Applekidjosh tied for the best pick, taking Zelda with 80%. This is Menji's first top five of the contest and Josh's second. The icon gets the third best prediction, also for his second top five of the contest. Yoshifan gets fourth and plasmabeam is fifth, both getting their third top 5 of the contest.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=37

Current Leaderboard:
1) Karma Hunter - 1684.96
2) DSRage - 1681.14
3) Kaxon - 1679.62
4) cyko - 1678.08
5) Draco1214 - 1673.85

We're back to a quiet top five again, as no one changes places, and everyone except Draco scores 45.xx points for the day. Ps2rulezzz and transience dropped out of the top 10 today, while Aprosenf and Salient moved back on, however, that race remains close - 3 points separate 6th from 12th.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=total&match=37

Top Team Scores:
1) Team Coinflip - 96.50 (red sox 777: +47.05 / Menji76: +49.45)
2) Team Shemale Shanty - 95.51 (Applekidjosh: +49.45 / Brakmaster: +46.06)
3) Team fast start before bombing - 93.10 (Luis_Sera89: +47.30 / XxSoulxX: +45.80)
4) Team Indie Cred - 92.79 (the icon ownz all: +49.35 / transience: +43.44)
5) Team Bartar - 92.73 (Master Moltar: +45.64 / KingBartz: +47.09)

Team Coinflip gets their second top score in four days. Team Shemale Shanty, who are currently in last place among teams that have predicted all the matches, get second... let's give them a round of applause! Team fast start before bombing has the third best score of the day. Team Indie Cred gets fourth, this time helped by the fact that icon decided to predict the match. Team Bartar gets fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teammatch&match=37

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Unfinished FFP (Ed Bellis / Karma Hunter) - 3354.44
2) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3347.14
3) Team The Spirit of Truth (Draco1214 / Rodri316) - 3343.28
4) Team Romanian Potato Soup (The n00b Avenger / GrapefruitKing) - 3325.15
5) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 3323.66

Ed Bellis and Karma Hunter remain in first and lead by 7.3 points - Karma Hunter, of course, is first on both leaderboards right now. Team We Used To Be Good? passes Team The Spirit of Truth and moves up to second place. Team Romanian Potato Soup and Team mvp's remain in fourth and fifth.

Complete Team Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teamtotal&match=37
---
....TCELES B HSUP
From: DSRage_Revived | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:49:44 AM | Message Detail
Hopefully that is true...


-D§R-
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Tifa is the most stylish girl in the FFVII world by far ~Vlado
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:50:50 AM | Message Detail
Karma Hunter, of course, is first on both leaderboards right now.

Looking to change today! ha ha aeris
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:50:56 AM | Message Detail
Wait, now that I checked, Aeris lost the day vote to Marle, of all people. So yeah, 62 would have been better. Now I wish I had stayed at 63...
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Take off every sig.
From: transience | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:51:23 AM | Message Detail
I have been a pile of suck since round 2 started.
---
xyzzy
From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:51:55 AM | Message Detail
Not like that's any different from normal!
---
CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 12:57:16 AM | Message Detail
So tranny, how bout that Aeris > Zelda pick?
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Take off every sig.
From: Starion | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:03:39 AM | Message Detail
Aeris isn't impressing here. It is still early though. But from the look of things, it seems Tifa > Aeris. Most people assumed they were fairly equal in terms of strength.
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Now playing: Castlevania:DOS | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR
From: transience | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:07:12 AM | Message Detail
oh, it's happening!!

(I'm working on my Heroic Mario impression.. how am I doing?)
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xyzzy
From: King_Zog | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:40:03 AM | Message Detail
Awwwwww....didn't look at the match pic before making my prediction :(

How could you NOT vote for KOS?
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Ladies and Gentlemen, your attention please. The Orient Express is now departing... All passengers should be on board.
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:42:41 AM | Message Detail
Hooray last-minute changes! Look out, top five!

(for now at least lol)
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:45:29 AM | Message Detail
You're doing ok, but the lack of capitalization is a dead giveaway.
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Take off every sig.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 3:48:36 AM | Message Detail
This match is utterly crushing my dreams. Not only is my favorite female contestant disappointing, but I'm dropping out of third place.
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....TCELES B HSUP
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/19/2006 6:14:22 AM | Message Detail
I knew that match pic would help KOS-MOS, there's no way she's getting a multi-% XS3 boost.
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~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/19/2006 6:15:02 AM | Message Detail
I mean, "I knew it" as in, I'm kicking myself for not considering it seriously.
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~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: cyko | Posted: 10/19/2006 6:49:51 AM | Message Detail
BAH! i knew KOS-MOS would do well today and i STILL raised my pick. at least i kept my pick below a doubling, but i really hope Aeris starts pulling some of the day vote.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:14:37 PM | Message Detail
Did I say I really hate the Female bracket yet?
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It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:19:13 PM | Message Detail
Last minute changes are bad bad bad.
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Take off every sig.
From: KingBartz | Posted: 10/19/2006 1:20:49 PM | Message Detail
With the exception of peach(I HATE HATE HATE), the female bracket is treating me well ^_^ y halo thar top 5.

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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 38/42 Today's pick: Aeris
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/19/2006 5:48:00 PM | Message Detail
Hohoho, another stunning last minute change by KM. Those always brighten my day considerably!

---
thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/19/2006 6:44:55 PM | Message Detail
Hohoho, another stunning last minute change by KM. Those always brighten my day considerably!

Actually the first one was to try to drag everyone down because I was sure it'd end high. Intent has always been low 70's so it's not a proper change. More like I have no clue wtf is going on...

MC/Sub-Zero on the other end...
---
It looks like I got Z1mZum'd! Congrats to the greatest Guru!
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
From: Menji76 | Posted: 10/19/2006 7:16:57 PM | Message Detail
Eww... my 69% prediction is gonna drop me today. For some reason, I couldn't log on last night and so I couldn't change my prediction.

At least I got my first top 5.

---
Board 8's #1 Duke Fan - Be Honest©
SC2K6; 34/37; 39 Points; T-3rd; Next Pick: Aeris
From: ad00 | Posted: 10/19/2006 9:59:23 PM | Message Detail
My pick is pretty good today. Now if only I hadn't changed my Zelda pick, I might have initiated some sort of comeback.

(Had 78.78, got scared by consensus and dropped to 74 =P)
---
Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle:33rd and dropping :( / Runner of Winning Streak
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:02:27 AM | Message Detail
Highest pick in the top 40? Yeah... good thing I was a second late.
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Take off every sig.
From: transience | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:04:08 AM | Message Detail
go me, changing my 71% prediction to 68%! WOO
---
xyzzy
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:08:20 AM | Message Detail
I'm going to have to start just plain picking stuff that makes no sense to me, because everything that makes sense in my head is wrong!
---
~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: King_Zog | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:21:35 AM | Message Detail
Yuna is slaughtering Joanna!

Maybe GFs has some taste in females after all
---
Ladies and Gentlemen, your attention please. The Orient Express is now departing... All passengers should be on board.
From: Leebo86 | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:23:18 AM | Message Detail
This is ridiculous. I shudder to think what the day vote is going to be like.
---
~~~Kemonozume~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDtkvswXMn0
From: DSRage_Revived | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:29:55 AM | Message Detail
OMG. According to these results...Roll is about as strong as Joanna.

Well Yuna is the much better character anyways...


-D§R-
---
Tifa is the most stylish girl in the FFVII world by far ~Vlado
From: ad00 | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:34:28 AM | Message Detail
Gah. Missed the top 5 again. By one freakin position. FFS >_>

Also, why did I change my Yuna again? Ugh.

I get great picks then I sabotage myself. (Peach and dante being the notable exceptions where I just sucked.)
---
Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
Oracle:33rd and dropping :( / Runner of Winning Streak
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/20/2006 12:35:05 AM | Message Detail
Match #38 Results
Aeris Gainsborough 61.65%
KOS-MOS 38.35%

KOS-MOS performed considerably better than expected against Aeris, doing almost 5% better than she did against Luigi last year. Was it the effect of Xenosaga 3, a bit of TJF, or Aeris not being as strong as we thought? We'll have to wait until the Aeris/Zelda battle to find out, but Zelda is definitely looking like the favorite going into that one. The consensus was Aeris with 67.33% and the average score was 43.84. All 124 predictions were for Aeris.

Best Five Picks:
1) Ringworm - Aeris Gainsborough 61.44% (+49.79)
2) th3l3fty - Aeris Gainsborough 61.27% (+49.62)
3) steve illumina - Aeris Gainsborough 62.20% (+49.45)
4) TheKnightOfNee - Aeris Gainsborough 62.33% (+49.32)
5) KleenexTissue50 - Aeris Gainsborough 60.89% (+49.24)

Ringworm gets today's top prediction, which brings him back into a tie with Rodri for the all time lead with 31 top 5 picks. Th3l3fty has the second best prediction, his third top five of the contest and lifetime. The sage of board 8, steve illumina, made the third best prediction, but it looks like he'll be rather far from third tomorrow, having picked Joanna for the upset. Last contest's rookie sensation TheKnightOfNee gets into the top five for the first time this contest with the fourth best pick, and KleenexTissue gets the fifth best pick, also his first top 5 of the contest.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=38

Current Leaderboard:
1) Karma Hunter - 1727.77
2) DSRage - 1725.57
3) cyko - 1723.39
4) Kaxon - 1722.27
5) Draco1214 - 1720.50

Karma Hunter stays in the lead today and DSRage is still in second place. Cyko passes Kaxon to take back third only two days after Kaxon finally moved passed him. Draco remains in fifth place.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=total&match=38

Top Team Scores:
1) Team Really Late Signup - 97.47 (ad00: +48.95 / JayLv100: +48.52)
2) Team th3 Bob - 96.27 (th3l3fty: +49.62 / Big Bob: +46.65)
3) Team I'll Be Here The Whole Time - 96.02 (TheKnightOfNee: +49.32 / catldr24: +46.70)
4) Team The Returners - 94.76 (cyko: +45.31 / steve illumina: +49.45)
5) Team Jonflufflez - 94.46 (CaptainFlufflez: +45.93 / jonthomson: +48.53)

Today's top team is Team Really Late Signup (ad00 and JayLv100). Team th3 Bob gets second due to th3l3fty's great pick. Team I'll Be Here The Whole Time gets third. The Returners (cyko and steve illumina) are fourth for the day, followed by Team Jonflufflez in fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teammatch&match=38

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Unfinished FFP (Ed Bellis / Karma Hunter) - 3440.02
2) Team The Spirit of Truth (Draco1214 / Rodri316) - 3437.56
3) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3430.10
4) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 3414.38
5) Team Romanian Potato Soup (The n00b Avenger / GrapefruitKing) - 3412.36

Team Unfinished FFP remains in first for the 4th day in a row. The Spirit of Truth retakes second from Team We Used To Be Good? just one day after they gave it up, while Team We Used To Be Good? drops seven points behind on a pair of high predictions. Team Rage of Warcraft returns to the leaderboard in fourth after two days off. Finally, Team Romanian Potato Soup drops from fourth to fifth in the standings.

Complete Team Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teamtotal&match=38
---
....TCELES B HSUP
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