History gave us a pretty clear indication last year when Vincent kicked Ganondorf's ass
---
Fc: 4768 3939 5325

and I predicted Bidoof in single digits.

I didn't but he's still performing better than I expected. Makes you wonder whether the two other Pokemon left in the contest are going to screw everyone in both the Oracle and the bracket.

---
100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego

Bidoof's performance may have something to do with 4Chan. Not sure how much more I can say without fear of being karma slapped or worse.
---
Character Battle: 40/48
Oracle: 38th Team Oracle: 25th (Partner: BZer0)

Gr...Bidoof. I love that guy so much, but the fact that he's beating MILES EDGEWORTH makes me despise Bidoof. Bidoof gets my full backing next round, however. I swear, if he was where I thought he was (below Edgeworth), my 73% prediction for Link would be accurate... =p Well, I guess I'm out of the Top Five now.

x-stats for yesterday's match:

Morgoth:
Magus - 25.25% on BL
Phoenix - 21.00%
Bomberman - 21.00%
Crash - 19.00%

These are actually fairly believable...

Haste:
Magus - 25%
Phoenix - 21.75%
Bomberman - 21.75%
Crash - 20.5%

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, Link's already blasted past my prediction and it's still early... I was feeling pretty good about my 65.xx% last night.
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

4) Vector Industries - 91.54 (Lady Ashe: +47.59 / CrimsonOcean: +0.00)

...How the hell? <_<
~~~
http://dnmty.com/files/7phoenix2.gif
http://dnmty.com/files/8edgeworth.gif

Sorry about the double post, but what is the efficiency rating?
~~~
http://dnmty.com/files/7phoenix2.gif
http://dnmty.com/files/8edgeworth.gif

and and also what she used in her 57% pounding of Aeris just last year.

That was just the background part. The foreground was her kickass LttP sprite.
---
Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.

4) Vector Industries - 91.54 (Lady Ashe: +47.59 / CrimsonOcean: +0.00)

...How the hell? <_<

Oops, I missed that. Anyway, when your partner doesn't predict, your team still gets points. It's either your score + the average of the day, or 2x your score, whichever is lower.
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Eh...

http://thengamer.com/xstats/pics/aeris06c.jpg

That's a kick-ass sprite? Now I like LttP as much as the next guy, but sprite-wise it seemed pretty clear that Aeris had the advantage there. Cloud and Vincent have always done well in sprite rounds, whereas pretty much the only disappointment in Link's Contest history came when he went into battle with this sprite

http://thengamer.com/xstats/pics/magus03c.jpg

So I still contend it was the huge backgrounds that did more to catch the eye in that matchup, and that Zelda's going to be just fine tomorrow.

---
The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats

That's a kick-ass sprite? Now I like LttP as much as the next guy, but sprite-wise it seemed pretty clear that Aeris had the advantage there.

Well, I love the sprite, anyway. >_>
---
Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.

So, I basically left home last night at around 7pm eastern and thought that Bomberman still had a shot. I'd be happy if it wasn't for Phoenix screwing my bracket but it still annoys the hell out of me how when a board 8 favorite wins it's rallying but when he loses it's cheating. Kinda reminds me why the Oracle is basically the only reason why I'm still here....

Am I the only one who'd much rather have the 2 Bomberman points than the 2 Frog points? Just asking...

As for today....well wtf Bidoof. I'll leave it as that. I mean, this is just sad, bracket or not.

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions WILL make a return tonight though....
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Yeah, I'm aware of that. I was just wondering how it is possible for a team to get on the top five under those circumstances. <_<

And the cheating bit is supposed to have some evidence, though I'm not particularly interested in it because it doesn't change the results for this match too much. =/
~~~
http://dnmty.com/files/7phoenix2.gif
http://dnmty.com/files/8edgeworth.gif

Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 6:14:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm aware of that. I was just wondering how it is possible for a team to get on the top five under those circumstances. <_<

And the cheating bit is supposed to have some evidence, though I'm not particularly interested in it because it doesn't change the results for this match too much. =/

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=teammatch&match=63

When most people score below the average, it can give you some interesting team results...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Match # 13 Results
Link 70.50%
Bidoof 15.96%
Miles Edgeworth 9.13%
Agent J 4.41%

Holy domination Batman!! Link decided to remind us why he hasn't been allowed in the contest for three years by breaking 70% against three opponents. Bidoof did better than expected, but Edgeworth failed to break 10%, and Agent J exceeded even SFFed-Zolom's level of suckiness. 97 people had Edgeworth second vs 44 for Bidoof. For once, everyone had Link first and everyone had Agent J last. The consensus predictions were Agent J 6.37%, Bidoof 9.98%, Link 72.02%, Edgeworth 11.65%.

Best Five Picks:
1) _Harmonica_ - Agent J 5.44% - Bidoof 16.48% - Edgeworth 7.23% - Link 70.85% (+49.05)
2) capatillistpiglet - Agent J 6.16% - Bidoof 12.58% - Edgeworth 10.68% - Link 70.58% (+48.31)
3) cavedog0 - Agent J 6.00% - Bidoof 14.00% - Edgeworth 11.00% - Link 69.00% (+48.27)
4) jonthomson - Agent J 7.00% - Bidoof 12.00% - Edgeworth 10.00% - Link 71.00% (+48.02)
5) Starion - Agent J 7.44% - Bidoof 16.44% - Edgeworth 8.12% - Link 67.00% (+47.99)

Harmonica was the best predictor of the day with a great 49.05 point prediction. Capitallistpiglet got second. This is the first top 5 ever for either of those two. The other three are Oracle veterans: cavedog (aka ThatsRidiculous) had the third best pick, followed by jonthomson in fourth and Starion in fifth.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=13

Current Leaderboard:
1) The n00b Avenger - 604.93
2) King Morgoth - 603.45
3) Master Moltar - 602.26
4) supdawg - 602.21
5) Lieutenant Kettch - 601.09

The top 4 on today's leaderboard are completely static! Moltar and supdawg are only 0.05 points apart, but didn't trade places. Lieutenant Kettch finally makes it on to the leaderboard today in 5th, displacing Haste2.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=13
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Top Team Scores:
1) Hyperion - 94.88 (Canth: +47.91 / Scythe Marshall: +46.97)
2) Jigglypuff - 94.79 (Alanna82: +47.77 / kawaiifan: +47.02)
3) Big Black Wangs - 94.49 (Master Moltar: +47.22 / Explicit Content: +47.27)
4) Predestined Divination - 94.32 (creativename: +46.77 / Ngamer64: +47.55)
5) T-REX - 94.24 (Team Rocket Elite: +46.52 / Xcarvengerx: +47.72)

Rolling on two great picks, Team Hyperion grab yesterday's best pick. The ladies of Team Jigglypuff take 2nd place not far behind while The Big Black Wangs nail 3rd place with their 4th TOp 5. Our leaders Team Predestined Divination grab 4th for their 17th all time Top 5 while Team T-REX round up the Top 5 with their second 5th place of the contest.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=13

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 1200.63
2) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 1198.33
3) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 1195.41
4) Team Big Black Wangs (Master Moltar / Explicit Content) - 1192.94
5) Team Drunkadelict Armadillos (Haste2 / Dekar TKB) - 1191.22

That match's not going to win any prize for Team Leaderboard excitement. The Top 8 doesn't move an inch but they pull pretty different numbers. Our leaders, Team Predestined Divination spend their 9th day in the lead and pull over 2 points away from second place and everyone moves apart a bit. All teams in the Top 9 managed to put at least 1.30 points between each other.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=13
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Darn you Ness, moving to one spot ahead of me by .09 points! It's happening again!
---
Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
"i love you and aiya" - An IM from Richie259. Awww.

Morgoth's Quickie Quick Questions! - Contest Day 13
Morgoth goes away and comes back with questions he should have already asked

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?
2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?
3) Agent J vs Adventure?
4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!
5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...
6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?
He won't. Magus will win by roughly the same proportion.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?
Magus.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?
Agent J.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!
In comparison to Miles Edgeworth, yes.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...
The streak has ended, I think.

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything
Why?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

1) if 2nd = 4th, 15-ish.
2) Magus
3) Adventure
4) No.
5) 8 lol
6) So, i herd u liek mudkipz...?
---
Member Of The Book Club
09/10/07: Will Smurf Eat Wang?

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

If Phoenix somehow takes second next round, it'd be with barely less than he got this round. Something like 43/20/20/17

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

Magus has it, I think still.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?

Adventure. It got SFFed by Zelda

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

No arguments here.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

5. Predictable unpredictability ftw.

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

Probably around 15ish.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

I'm still pretty confident in Magus. If Big Boss did beat him, it would still be a big upset.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?

Adventure... although I suppose people might just say "what the hell are these things?" and vote for Agent J because his picture doesn't look completely dated.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

I pretty much agree.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

Just 3... I'm pretty sure you don't have Sam Fisher or Simon Belmont advancing tomorrow.

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything

How the heck do lifetime standings work? >_>
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Holy mother of god @ the incredibly small separation in the top 15 teams yesterday. Giggs and I were only 1.61 out of first place, and that was enough to put us in 13th x___x

Scheme scheme plot plot
CREAM's comin for that numbah one spot
---
Cokes
Team C.R.E.A.M.

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

...I really have no clue what to think about that match.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

...I'll say Big Boss, but my bracket has Magus.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

bidoof doof doof doooooof bidoof

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

You'll get tomorrow right.

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything

dooooooooofy doof doof bidoof doof
~~~
http://dnmty.com/files/7phoenix2.gif
http://dnmty.com/files/8edgeworth.gif

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?
It'd be pretty crazy if Phoenix manages to get second. However, I think he would do exactly the same as he did on his first match.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?
Magus should hold....

3) Agent J vs Adventure?
Adventure!

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!
There's no need for that. I hate Bidoof a little too much.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...
You should have Raiden, so it should tomorrow.

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything
Ahh...Phoenix/Frog/Marcus/Mewtwo...who ya got? ;)

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?
PHOENIX WILL BEAT MARIO......................not.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?
Mario. :P
Ok seriously, I hope it is Magus for my bracket sake! Though I can see Big Boss takes it if he gets a favourable pic.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?
Definitely Adventure (we are all old school, right?)

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!
Bidoof doof, you don't. Therefore Bidoof > you.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...
Stop jinxed us, KM! Hope you don't have Raiden tomorrow, because if you do, he will lose! >_>

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything
Auron vs Squall vs Tifa vs Vincent. Who takes first, second and third?

---
Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.

Auron vs Squall vs Tifa vs Vincent. Who takes first, second and third?

Craziness! Knowing GameFAQs I think Tifa takes last, since GF voters are pretty sexist. I don't think Auron's quite on the level of Squall and Vincent, although it's possibly he could benefit by being a generation newer than the other three if there's a weird PS1 vote splitting thing going on. Considering how close Vincent and Squall are, I think Tifa takes just slightly more votes from Vincent than from Squall, giving Squall the win.
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Why?
I personally believe that US Americans are unable to do so because ... some ... people out there in our nation don't have maps and I believe that our ad...education like such as in South Africa and the Iraq everywhere like such as and ... I believe that they should ... errr... our eduction over here, in the US should help the US, or should help South Africa, it should help the Iraq and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future...

So, i herd u liek mudkipz...?
Yea, my bracketz sayz mudkipz wut u dont liek mudkipz u traiter?!?

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
For a regular Tootsie Pop it's usually between 468 and 536, depending on the size of your tongue.

How the heck do lifetime standings work? >_>
I have no idea myself and I wrote the formulas. It's a mix up of how well you did, how well everyone else did, how well I thought you did and how much I like you I figure....

dooooooooofy doof doof bidoof doof
Who let the dogs out?

Ahh...Phoenix/Frog/Marcus/Mewtwo...who ya got? ;)
Wow.
Actually once you let it sink in, I find it clearer than I though.
Marcus > Mewtwo by an inch...

Auron vs Squall vs Tifa vs Vincent. Who takes first, second and third?
Craziest SFF fest ever? Tifa probably gets the lowest hardcore support so she takes last, with VIncent's showing today he "easily" takes first...I'd probably take Squall over Auron so
Vincent > Squall > Auron > Tifa
But that one's ridiculously tough...


Bidoof doof, you don't. Therefore Bidoof > you.
Bonus cookie to Xcarvengerx for actually trying to make an argument!
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

strangely, as i read this topic, i'm eating a tootsie pop
---
Cokes
Team C.R.E.A.M.

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

Upper teens.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

Magus

3) Agent J vs Adventure?

Agent J. At least he has the DS lite.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

He has nice teeth and a tail that can spank naughty bottoms? shrugs...

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

4

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything

There has to be some empirical data that could answer this: Changing your oracle picks: hurts more than helps or the other way around?

---
100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego

There has to be some empirical data that could answer this: Changing your oracle picks: hurts more than helps or the other way around?

Although we do have the data going back to spc2k5, it's only in the form or archived topics... our database only has each person's last prediction. That would be really interesting to see, though.
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

*shudders* I don't want to think about Phoenix taking second. I'll say he lands somewhere in the 12%-15% range.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

I know Magus looked terrible, but I still believe he's a step above the likes of Phoenix and Big Boss.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?

Adventure.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

It earned two points for my bracket, so I can't say I mind Bidoof all that much.

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

Tomorrow appears to be a fairly "safe" match, so I'll say your streak ends after today. If not...well, the following two weeks (yes, weeks) worth of matches all seem to have room for speculation. I think it's going to get ugly for all of us in a hurry. :-(

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want!

Why do you think it is it that characters exclusive to the PS2/GC/XBox generation and beyond have (thus far) topped out at Auron/Dante level strengthwise?

I can't think of more than 3 occasions where changing my pick helped me. I think next time you get the urge to change, just chop off your hands
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.

There has to be some empirical data that could answer this: Changing your oracle picks: hurts more than helps or the other way around?

This would very likely be totally neutral.

There's a slim chance it would be very slightly positive on average, as people might be taking into account new information (pictures etc.).

There no way in hell, absolutely guaranteed, that on average it would be negative.

People's biased memories are completely psychological - but of course that goes without saying :)
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Why do you think it is it that characters exclusive to the PS2/GC/XBox generation and beyond have (thus far) topped out at Auron/Dante level strengthwise?

It's all of us old geezer who still vote icons over them =P. Seriously, there's some kind of resistance when it comes to "newer" characters, I don't think they'll ever be able to perform much stronger than that, people just don't seem to love the newer characters as much.


This would very likely be totally neutral.

There's a slim chance it would be very slightly positive on average, as people might be taking into account new information (pictures etc.).

There no way in hell, absolutely guaranteed, that on average it would be negative.

People's biased memories are completely psychological - but of course that goes without saying :)

I'd be chocked if it was anywhere outside the error range for the null hypothesis. Even with the new information we usually can't interpret it correctly....
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Agh, Raiden. I thought you were supposed to be stronger than Big Boss...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Morgoth:
Link - 55.00%
Bidoof - 19.50%
Edgeworth - 11.75% (ugh)
Agent J - 5.75%

We all know Bidoof SFFed Edgeworth!

creative:
Link - 52.00%
Bidoof - 23.75%
Edgeworth - 19.75%
Agent J - 16.5%

YES! We all know Edgeworth is near the fodder line!

Haste2:
Link - 55.00%
Bidoof - 20.25%
Edgeworth - 12.5%
Agent J - 6.5%

Morgoth:
Vincent - 39.00%
Zelda - 33.00%
The Boss - 20.00%
Tails - 19.75%

Haste2:
Vincent - 38.00%
Zelda - 33.00%
The Boss - 22.00%
Tails - 21.75%

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Match # 14 Results
Vincent Valentine 38.68%
Zelda 29.88%
The Boss 15.84%
Miles 'Tails' Prower 15.60%

By the standards of this contest, day 14 was pretty uneventful. Vincent did better than expected and Zelda worse, while The Boss and Tails were around where they were supposed to be. 86 people had Vincent > Zelda, exactly half as many (43) had Zelda > Vincent, and 6 had either Tails or The Boss in second.

Best Five Picks:
1) somdude04 - Tails 15.00% - The Boss 14.12% - Vincent 36.12% - Zelda 30.00% (+48.75)
2) Eggplant Lord - Tails 16.00% - The Boss 15.00% - Vincent 37.00% - Zelda 32.00% (+48.74)
3) Tomoyo - Tails 15.82% - The Boss 14.65% - Vincent 37.19% - Zelda 32.34% (+48.66)
4) oneills1 - Tails 15.77% - The Boss 13.28% - Vincent 38.54% - Zelda 32.41% (+48.65)
5) supdawg - Tails 15.93% - The Boss 17.23% - Vincent 35.79% - Zelda 31.05% (+48.55)

Early in the match we had some extremely high scores (including a 49.91 at one point), but voting trends brought things down to a more usual level. Somdude had the best prediction, beating out Eggplant Lord by 0.01 points. This is somdude's 18th lifetime top 5 and Eggplant Lord's 9th. Tomoyo gets his second top 5 of the contest in third, and he's followed by oneills1, also separated by a margin of 0.01. This is oneills's first lifetime top 5 and his first contest. Supdawg gets fifth, trying to move himself up the contest leaderboard.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=14

Current Leaderboard:
1) The n00b Avenger - 653.01
2) supdawg - 650.76
3) King Morgoth - 649.73
4) Master Moltar - 649.50
5) Haste2 - 648.79

N00b Avenger hangs on to first place, where he's been since day 6. We do have a shakeup just below him though, where supdawg jumps into second place over King Morgoth and Master Moltar. Haste2 once again swaps places with Lieutenant Kettch to return to the leaderboard.

In the extended leaderboard, DSRage moves up three spots to 7th, creativename and charmander are now tied for 8th, and Ngamer is 0.1 points behind them in 10th.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=14
---
Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Top Team Scores:
1) We Love t.A.T.u - 96.33 (MMXcalibur: +47.78 / supdawg: +48.55)
2) We Love Aqua - 95.20 (somdude04: +48.75 / longbladeofhiko: +0.00)
3) Drunkadelict Armadillos - 95.14 (Haste2: +47.74 / Dekar TKB: +47.40)
4) Silesia - 95.11 (Tomoyo: +48.66 / Hartzenan: +0.00)
5) We Love the Village People - 95.05 (MegatokyoEd: +47.36 / Redtooth: +47.69)

It's the attack of the crappy bands! That's right, three of the teams in today's top 5 didn't pick a team name, so they had one assigned to them. Team We Love t.A.T.u (MMXcalibur and supdawg) had the best score. Somdude propelled Team We Love Aqua to second place by himself, with hiko not making a prediction. Team Drunkadelict Armadillos gives us a merciful break from the music with the third place score, and Tomoyo gets a solo top 5 for Team Silesia. Finally it's back to the disco (make it stop!) with team We Love the Village People (MegatokyoEd and Redtooth) in fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=14

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 1294.10
2) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 1292.30
3) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 1288.89
4) Team Big Black Wangs (Master Moltar / Explicit Content) - 1287.42
5) Team Drunkadelict Armadillos (Haste2 / Dekar TKB) - 1286.36

*Yawn*

For the second day in a row, the top 8 teams don't budge... I guess everyone's happy where they are. Team Helmasaur King climbed into the top 10, moving up from 11th to 9th and trading places with Team C.R.E.A.M.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=14
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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Damn, I forgot to make a prediction today. Thankfully I have a back-up, but that Simon Belmont prediction is going to destroy me.

1) Trick question... Magus sucked and Big Boss impressed...how much does Phoenix get when he takes second next round?

I have to predict what percentage makes the board vomit Wrightisms? No thank you.

2) Alright, who takes second since they're all viable options in the end?

Magus.

3) Agent J vs Adventure?

Adventure.

4) Bidoof sucks. Convince me otherwise if you dare!

At least he's not Mudkip.

*has no idea which one actually sucks more, because he still only plays Pokemon Blue

5) Without looking at my bracket, how many matches in a row am I going to miss? Today's #3...

Link -> Bidoof was the first match I've got 4 points for since Samus -> Frog. And Crono -> Simon today. If you're doing worse than that...

6) Free card, ask Morgoth a tricky question if you want! Anything,

Is it really always sunny in Philadelphia? I've got my suspicions...
---
Earthbound: It's like living inside your gym shoes.
Huh? Finger!? What the hell? -Cloud

I'd be chocked if it was anywhere outside the error range for the null hypothesis. Even with the new information we usually can't interpret it correctly....

Indeed, I agree, that's basically what I was saying. But the information would assuredly not hurt.

The only trend it that predictions might become closer to other peoples' over time (which again, if it changed anything, would introduce positive score bias rather than negative - over the long-term).
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Craziest SFF fest ever? Tifa probably gets the lowest hardcore support so she takes last, with VIncent's showing today he "easily" takes first...I'd probably take Squall over Auron so
Vincent > Squall > Auron > Tifa
But that one's ridiculously tough...

Wouldn't Tifa take some of Vincent votes? Well, I think it depends whether Squall can resist SFF from weaker FF VII character or take advantage of it (we will know in Squall vs Aeris)... We assume no significant SFF atm, so Tifa's present should be enough to let Squall take the first place over Vincent... IMO

So yeah, I think I would agree with Kaxon on Squall > Vincent > Auron > Tifa, or maybe even Tifa > Auron, because badass vote for Auron will be absorbed by Vincent (I think!) and Tifa has a TJF going on for her (unless the theory kiddies don't vote for girls is correct...>_>).

How about if Tifa was replaced with another low to middle mid-carder that doesn't have the same fanbase, like Peach or Diablo or Tails or Gordon Freeman? Would Squall and Vincent still maintain their first/second place?


Bonus cookie to Xcarvengerx for actually trying to make an argument!

Yay cookie! *gives Bidoof to KM as a souvenir* ^_^
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.

I'd go Auron > Squall > Vincent > Tifa. Auron shares the least fanbase with the others, I think, and he's my favorite (by far) of the bunch, anyway. Vincent and Tifa split too much of the FF7 fanbase.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'd be chocked if it was anywhere outside the error range for the null hypothesis. Even with the new information we usually can't interpret it correctly....

Actually, I bet it's at least slightly positive. There are basically three factors that can make you change your prediction:
- Changing your mind; should be completely neutral
- New info based on the picture; should be slightly positive
- Other people's predictions; this is actually a good signal

I'd go Auron > Squall > Vincent > Tifa. Auron shares the least fanbase with the others, I think, and he's my favorite (by far) of the bunch, anyway. Vincent and Tifa split too much of the FF7 fanbase.

Yeah, but the FF VIII fanbase is practically a subset of the FF VII fanbase. I'm thinking Squall vs Vincent are going to be very close no matter who else is in the poll with them.
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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.

Is it really always sunny in Philadelphia? I've got my suspicions...
Look at some Phily Cheese....does that look sunny to you? =P

Yay cookie! *gives Bidoof to KM as a souvenir* ^_^
I hope that's a plushie.....I really hope it is.......arrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh pets =P


Actually, I bet it's at least slightly positive. There are basically three factors that can make you change your prediction:
- Changing your mind; should be completely neutral
- New info based on the picture; should be slightly positive
- Other people's predictions; this is actually a good signal

Define slightly =P
- I'd expect that to be neutral
- Except in a few rare cases, I think it's pretty much agreed that pic factor is nonexistant. That could actually be slightly negative in the end since it could sway you away in the wrong direction....
- This one's interesting. I'm pretty sure that usually the "better" predictors make more changes than the others...getting closer to the average could possibly cost them points in the long run... It's all speculation anyway...

Two questions off-topic:
Why do I make such both weird and interesting typos?
Why do I hate job interviews so much?
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Morgoth:
Crono - 38.00% on BL
Raiden - 20.75%
Sam Fisher - 20.50%
Simon Belmont - 13.00%

Haste2:
Crono - 37.00%
Raiden - 21.75%
Sam Fisher - 21.50%
Simon Belmont - 14.50%

creativename:
Crono - 34.00%
Raiden - 24.50%
Sam Fisher - 24.25%
Simon Belmont - 21.25%

Oh, yes... Simon's above the fodder line with creative's formula, so this one is clearly correct!

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Hmm, I got different numbers applying Morgoth's formula to the Link match. I was trying to get a read on Bidoof to use for Mudkip, and got this:

Link 55%
Bidoof 19.78%
Edgeworth 11.91%
Agent J 5.96%

Of course, I had Link at 50% and then did a 50/45 multiplier on everyone else. Maybe that proves KM's formula to be incompatible? Or it just doesn't work with values above 50.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Er... nevermind, you aren't actually performing the formula in reverse, just putting estimates that will make the formula give something close to the actual result.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

It doesn't work with values above 50. If someone's expected to get 55% on base Link, the actual strength value is 55.56%. I wish creative kept his x-stats above 50 as the strength value rather than the expected percent on BL, as the former is instantly calculable...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Xuxon | Posted 9/17/2007 9:53:34 PM | message detail
Hmm, I got different numbers applying Morgoth's formula to the Link match. I was trying to get a read on Bidoof to use for Mudkip, and got this:

Link 55%
Bidoof 19.78%
Edgeworth 11.91%
Agent J 5.96%

Of course, I had Link at 50% and then did a 50/45 multiplier on everyone else. Maybe that proves KM's formula to be incompatible? Or it just doesn't work with values above 50.

Haste tends to round his numbers.
With Link at 55% I'm getting:
Link - 55.00%
Bidoof - 19.58%
Edgeworth - 11.79%
Agent J - 5.90%

With Link at 50% I'm getting:
Link - 50.00%
Bidoof - 17.80%
Edgeworth - 10.72%
Agent J - 5.36%

which scales back to the first one, I don't know where your numbers came from...

Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 9:57:56 PM | message detail
It doesn't work with values above 50. If someone's expected to get 55% on base Link, the actual strength value is 55.56%. I wish creative kept his x-stats above 50 as the strength value rather than the expected percent on BL, as the former is instantly calculable...
?
It works with values above 50, what am I missing here?
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)