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SC2k8 Oracle Challenge Discussion Topic 2
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/11/2008 11:28:58 PM | Message Detail
Whew, thanks dude. Sorry for not doing mammerjammer's predictions separately yesterday too - I was feeling really lazy. Sorry to make extra work for you. >_>

Ugh, that one is a big pain in the ass to fix...

Today I was having dinner with my family for my birthday and it looks like I stuck myself with an attrocious prediction before I left... 15% for Lucas, sigh.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: creativename | Posted: 10/11/2008 11:45:48 PM | Message Detail
A heartfelt Happy Birthday!!
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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/11/2008 11:47:15 PM | Message Detail
Oh wow, I thought I'd done well in that Mewtwo match, but no idea I'd done THAT well! And creative had a solid day as well- that's more like it! We'll be right back in the title hunt in no time.

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From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/11/2008 11:50:56 PM | Message Detail
Oh wow, I thought I'd done well in that Mewtwo match, but no idea I'd done THAT well! And creative had a solid day as well- that's more like it! We'll be right back in the title hunt in no time.

Ugh, your team just gained a lot of ground on my team. And today isn't looking good either, although I have a slightly better prediction than my partner.
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From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 12:00:47 AM | Message Detail
bleh, if kirby goes and gets a good day vote, which he probably will, then the fact that i predicted big boss higher than most won't matter at all. one of the things i dislike about the scoring system for 4-ways.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 12:15:24 AM | Message Detail
Match # 24 Results
Mewtwo 41.83%
Pac-Man 25.09%
Ness 18.31%
Travis Touchdown 14.77%

Wakka wakka wakka! The ever unpredictable Pac-Man took a lot of people by surprise today and cruised to a second place finish. Meanwhile Ness stunk up the joint (if only I'd factored that into my Lucas prediction!) and Travis performed better than many expected.

Consensus:
Mewtwo - 35.80%
Ness - 26.92%
Pac-Man - 24.89%
Travis Touchdown - 12.26%

Best Five Picks:
1) MoogleKupo141 - Mewtwo 42.00% - Ness 21.00% - Pac-Man 23.00% - Travis 14.00% (+48.57)
2) andylt - Mewtwo 39.00% - Ness 21.00% - Pac-Man 24.00% - Travis 16.00% (+48.04)
3) Lady Ashe - Mewtwo 40.00% - Ness 23.00% - Pac-Man 23.00% - Travis 14.00% (+47.65)
4) SFF_potential - Mewtwo 42.81% - Ness 22.21% - Pac-Man 23.57% - Travis 11.41% (+47.56)
5) Vlado - Mewtwo 37.10% - Ness 23.38% - Pac-Man 25.16% - Travis 14.36% (+47.43)

MoogleKupo easily took the top spot in this low-scoring top 5, beating second place andy by more than half a point, and third place Lady Ashe by almost one full point. This was the second top 5 of the contest for all three of those folks. SFF_potential was fourth and Vlado was fifth today.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=match&match=24

Current Leaderboard:
1) creativename - 1131.37
2) PeaceOut64 - 1131.32
3) Camden - 1130.44
4) kawaiifan - 1129.81
5) Xuxon - 1129.17

No change in the top 5 today. You have to go all the way down to 7th place to find a change in the standings, where some remarkably sexy fellow climbed seven spots in one day, which happened to be his birthday. =P

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=total&match=24

Top Team Scores:
1) Carvey Elite imho - 93.38 (Team Rocket Elite: +46.65 / Xcarvengerx: +46.73)
2) Épuration - 93.31 (MoogleKupo141: +48.57 / tazzyboyishere: +0.00)
3) Predestined Divination - 93.24 (creativename: +45.90 / Ngamer64: +47.34)
4) We Used To Be Good? - 92.48 (Kaxon: +46.70 / King Morgoth: +45.78)
5) Palace of Wisdom - 92.20 (Master Moltar: +46.05 / DSRage: +46.15)

Two days after TRE had a solo first place, his team Carvey Elite imho lands in first as well. Team Épuration (MoogleKupo and tazzyboy) land in second, their third top 5 of the contest. Team Predestined Divination takes third, once again followed by rival team We Used To Be Good?. Team Palace of Wisdom (Moltar and DSR) is fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teammatch&match=24

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team 31 (PeaceOut64 / The n00b Avenger) - 2259.42
2) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 2258.30
3) Team Mother Cat is a Landmine (Xuxon / GrapefruitKing) - 2255.17
4) Team Kirby (kawaiifan / Luster Soldier) - 2254.04
5) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 2253.43

No change in the team top 5. The top four teams all scored 91.xx points today, while Team Predestined Divination makes up some ground.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teamtotal&match=24
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 12:16:40 AM | Message Detail
Thanks creative!
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: creativename | Posted: 10/12/2008 12:29:23 AM | Message Detail
Luster
Ugh, your team just gained a lot of ground on my team. And today isn't looking good either, although I have a slightly better prediction than my partner.

That's what you get for talking about a 3 point lead - down to less than a point in a single match. Mwahahahaha!! XD Course things could turn just as easily, and I have no idea what effect today will have.


Xuxon
bleh, if kirby goes and gets a good day vote, which he probably will, then the fact that i predicted big boss higher than most won't matter at all. one of the things i dislike about the scoring system for 4-ways.

Wait - I just looked at your pred:

Big Boss - 40.79%
Jinjo - 11.41%
Kirby - 35.24%
Lucas - 12.56%

Dude, that pred kicks ass! That's gotta be a top 10 prediction I would guess.


Kaxon
Thanks creative!

Thank you for all your hard Oracle work :) Love the Oracle.
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From: creativename | Posted: 10/12/2008 12:32:50 AM | Message Detail
You have to go all the way down to 7th place to find a change in the standings, where some remarkably sexy fellow climbed seven spots in one day, which happened to be his birthday. =P

Lucky sevens, and you're like pi points behind the lead too :) All this must be a sign from the contest gods.
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From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 1:08:11 AM | Message Detail
Dude, that pred kicks ass! That's gotta be a top 10 prediction I would guess.

Not if Kirby shoots up to like 38 with the day vote, which I'm half expecting now. 37 at least, anyway. Then I'm basically tied with everyone who didn't hugely overestimate Kirby, predicted Jinjo >= his final percent, and had Jinjo+Lucas about equal to mine (24).
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From: ShatteredElysium | Posted: 10/12/2008 4:45:41 AM | Message Detail
Yesterday was not a good day. Today is looking equally as bad, if not worse. Ugh.

At least I am getting naughty text messages at work to keep me happy.
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 10/12/2008 7:58:36 AM | Message Detail
Ugh, that one is a big pain in the ass to fix...

>_< Sorry. Won't do it again, I promise!
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From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:01:24 AM | Message Detail
I see Camden going down about 9 places O_O

...
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden
From: Salient | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:31:15 AM | Message Detail
Last Updated: 2008-10-11 20:33:12 (Pacific Time)

Darnit, Justin, don't get me excited like that. We need more flashing arrows or something.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 11:42:13 AM | Message Detail
Lucky sevens, and you're like pi points behind the lead too :) All this must be a sign from the contest gods.

Sadly, I'm probably going to be dropping 7 spots or more today... I don't know what I was thinking with Lucas at 15%! His game never came out in the US!
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: creativename | Posted: 10/12/2008 1:59:40 PM | Message Detail
Xuxon
Not if Kirby shoots up to like 38 with the day vote, which I'm half expecting now. 37 at least, anyway. Then I'm basically tied with everyone who didn't hugely overestimate Kirby, predicted Jinjo >= his final percent, and had Jinjo+Lucas about equal to mine (24).

OK...couldn't quite follow this >_> I tried to but it made my head hurt, so I gave up.


Kaxon
Sadly, I'm probably going to be dropping 7 spots or more today... I don't know what I was thinking with Lucas at 15%! His game never came out in the US!

Really doubt you'll drop very much actually. Your Lucas pred is probably not that much above most people's actually. I had Lucas at 12.5% myself, and I know mine was lower than the good majority, and your's is only 2.5 points higher than mine. I doubt you're more than 1-1.5 points above the consensus.

The average prediction for Lucas was probably well over double what he's actually getting. Which has to be some sort of historic thing, come to think of it.
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From: Camden | Posted: 10/12/2008 2:06:57 PM | Message Detail
I see Camden going down about 9 places O_O

Wait, what? Damn.
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Orange poop! Orange poop! -Billy
From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/12/2008 2:08:19 PM | Message Detail
Big Boss - 29.00
Jinjo - 19.00
Kirby - 39.00
Lucas - 13.00

This is your prediction, is it not? I took off percentage signs just in case.
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/12/2008 3:47:24 PM | Message Detail
This is your prediction, is it not? I took off percentage signs just in case.

In this topic, predictions don't count so there's no need to take off the percentage signs.

I don't know what I was thinking with Lucas at 15%! His game never came out in the US!

I had lowered my prediction on Lucas, but even 12.30% was still too high.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
From: Camden | Posted: 10/12/2008 3:52:24 PM | Message Detail
This is your prediction, is it not? I took off percentage signs just in case.

I'm pretty sure I changed to 37-13-38-12, maybe I left off a percentage sign or something. Those numbers reek of safety prediction to me.
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Wildcard, *****es! Yeeeeeehaaaaw! -Charlie
Orange poop! Orange poop! -Billy
From: Camden | Posted: 10/12/2008 3:56:19 PM | Message Detail
Okay, Oracle hasn't updated since my new prediction.

Camden | Posted 10/11/2008 8:51:56 PM (#066)
Hope this makes it, got caught watching Oregon and forgot the time.

Big Boss - 37%
Jinjo - 13%
Kirby - 38%
Lucas - 12%

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Wildcard, *****es! Yeeeeeehaaaaw! -Charlie
Orange poop! Orange poop! -Billy
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 7:57:39 PM | Message Detail
Rule Change Announcement

Figured I'd put something slightly more noticeable, since it wasn't very obvious in the prediction topic... I got rid of the 5 minute deadline, because it seemed to cause more problems than it avoided. So now you can make your prediction right up until 12:00:00 (Eastern Time). Anything after that won't be accepted under any circumstances, anything before that will count - seems better since we won't treat changes and new predictions differently anymore.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Salient | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:14:39 PM | Message Detail
Kaxon...

... I'm going to kill you.
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From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:17:05 PM | Message Detail
OH MY GOD.

Poor Camden, he changed his prediction from

Kain Highwind - 25.00
Master Chief - 34.00
Professor Layton - 10.00
Raiden - 31.00


To something completely ridiculous O_O

He would've gotten high 49s!
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:19:39 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief is expected to be a beast in the day, which means his percentage will skyrocket. His percentage will probably go up a little during the night and morning.
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:27:51 PM | Message Detail
Match # 25 Results
Big Boss 48.08%
Kirby 36.78%
Jinjo 9.49%
Lucas 5.65%

Wham! That's the sound of all our predictions hitting the wall. Big Boss went in and destroyed everything in its path almost hitting the almighty 50% mark. Kirby underperformed slightly (%-wise at least) while Jinjo and Lucas, well, didn't do much at all. Lol Lucas. Seriously.

Consensus:
Big Boss - 35.18%
Jinjo - 12.40%
Kirby - 38.03%
Lucas - 14.31%

Best Five Picks:
1) Yesmar - Big Boss 41.98% - Jinjo 10.15% - Kirby 40.36% - Lucas 7.51% (+46.95)
2) Lady Ashe - Big Boss 40.00% - Jinjo 10.00% - Kirby 40.00% - Lucas 10.00% (+45.96)
3) transience - Big Boss 39.45% - Jinjo 9.45% - Kirby 39.55% - Lucas 11.55% (+45.66)
4) Xuxon - Big Boss 40.79% - Jinjo 11.41% - Kirby 35.24% - Lucas 12.56% (+45.58)
5) yoblazer33 - Big Boss 40.00% - Jinjo 12.00% - Kirby 36.00% - Lucas 12.00% (+45.57)

Yesmar takes the top pick yesterday while Lady Ashe gets a second Top 5 in a row in 2nd. transience grabs his first top 5 of the year in 3rd followed closely by Xuxon (with his 5th! TOp 5) in 4th and yoblazer in 5th

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=match&match=25

Current Leaderboard:
1) creativename - 1176.08
2) PeaceOut64 - 1175.83
3) Camden - 1174.90
4) Xuxon - 1174.75
5) yoblazer33 - 1173.63

Similar scores and no changes in our Top 3 today while Xuxon rides his Top 5 pick up one position in 4th and yoblazer jumps up from 10th to the last spot on our leaderboard.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=total&match=25

Top Team Scores:
1) ted crunkensteinsience and the AUGHs II: curse of the black pearl - 90.57 (transience: +45.66 / Ed Bellis: +44.91)
2) B8OraclePredixGods - 89.92 (Lady Ashe: +45.96 / SenpaiDessus: +43.96)
3) Mother Cat is a Landmine - 89.76 (Xuxon: +45.58 / GrapefruitKing: +44.18)
4) 31 - 89.35 (PeaceOut64: +44.51 / The n00b Avenger: +44.84)
5) Palace of Wisdom - 89.17 (Master Moltar: +44.71 / DSRage: +44.46)

tranny and Ed get their first Top 5 of the year and do it in style with the Top Pick yesterday. Team B8OraclePredixGods get their 5th Top 5 of the year in 2nd while Team Mother Cat is a Landmine take 3rd for their 11th Top 5 of the season (Yes, they'll get 28 this year at this rate). Team 31 make their 8th appearance here in 4th while Team Palace of Wisdom takes 5th place, good for their 7th Top 5.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teammatch&match=25

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team 31 (PeaceOut64 / The n00b Avenger) - 2348.77
2) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 2346.97
3) Team Mother Cat is a Landmine (Xuxon / GrapefruitKing) - 2344.93
4) Team Kirby (kawaiifan / Luster Soldier) - 2341.85
5) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 2341.83

Boring day here as nobody moves in the Top 8. What isn't as boring is that this script doesn't give me the same numbers I'm linking to. And no I don't really like that...

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k8&type=teamtotal&match=25
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:32:06 PM | Message Detail
Kaxon...

... I'm going to kill you.


I don't like that plan!
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Camden | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:46:55 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, I've been paying very little attention to my picks for the last two or three days, though even if I was I probably wouldn't have put Kain any higher than 20. When I get in a slump it seems like I need to stumble into a good prediction to get going again. I'll blame this one on Arizona beating Dallas the way they did. It's ruined my entire day.

Hey, I'm still in third even after a chunk of bad predictions. Well, until tomorrow probably. 5th maybe?
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Orange poop! Orange poop! -Billy
From: creativename | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:50:42 PM | Message Detail
Aren't there potential problems with this midnight deadline? I mean, it's not like both servers are in-line with an atomic clock. Also we've seen the odd match start time now and again.

And my prediction for today...
Kain Highwind - 17%
Master Chief - 46.25%
Professor Layton - 8.75%
Raiden - 28%

Is pretty terrible. I shouldn't have lost faith in Kain, oh well. What's Ngamer's pred?
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From: GrapefruitKing | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:50:46 PM | Message Detail
So... my last good prediction goes back to Snake's match <_<
damn....
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Today's prediction: Chief 48.20% - Raiden 27.89% - Kain 15.30% - Layton 8.61%
Status:
From: creativename | Posted: 10/12/2008 8:53:43 PM | Message Detail
I'll blame this one on Arizona beating Dallas the way they did. It's ruined my entire day.

Haha, that made my day :) Big Giants fan, and I've always loved Warner. And hate the Cowboys.

Saw the last half of that game, and was so pissed when the timeout messed up the blocked FG. I've always told people for years that someday a coach was gonna pay for that stupid freezing thing, never thought it would be for a team I was rooting for and a game I was watching though. Thankfully the Cards still one.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/12/2008 9:12:30 PM | Message Detail
Aren't there potential problems with this midnight deadline? I mean, it's not like both servers are in-line with an atomic clock. Also we've seen the odd match start time now and again.

From what I've seen (with my experience in the first vote contest), they tend to be synced very closely. I mean, if you have a 5 second window (high estimate) to make a prediction after the start of the match, you're going to have to be very quick and you'd be working off not much information.

A match starting early would be a bigger problem, but I don't think that's happened since 2003... am I forgetting something?
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From: Eternal_Debate | Posted: 10/12/2008 9:28:20 PM | Message Detail
Sub 40 score? I kinda expected a few more of them this contest actually. Thought I'd managed a high 47 from a quick glance at the scores, seeing as I went up two spots, but knew that was unrealistic. Thought it might have been even worse actually.
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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 10/12/2008 9:58:00 PM | Message Detail
I can confirm that there hasn't been a early first vote since at least 2005. The new midnight start shouldn't be a problem, I wouldn't think.

creative, I went with

Master Chief - 45.19%
Raiden - 22.80%
Kain Highwind - 18.55%
Professor Layton - 13.46%

On the basis that this pack would give MC a little more trouble than Yuna/Vercetti/Parappa, Raiden would be stronger but still a chump, Kain would be fairly decent, and Layton would stand out enough to look okay.

Looking pretty bad!

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From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/12/2008 9:59:21 PM | Message Detail
Everyone's looking bad. >.>
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden
From: Camden | Posted: 10/12/2008 10:33:39 PM | Message Detail
Right now I'm getting 43.61 or so. I can't wait for round 2 where I know what's going on.
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Wildcard, *****es! Yeeeeeehaaaaw! -Charlie
Orange poop! Orange poop! -Billy
From: ShatteredElysium | Posted: 10/13/2008 12:52:17 AM | Message Detail
Good god, seriously can the contest go back to being easy to predict now. This is gonna be 3 killer days in a row now >_>
From: Xuxon | Posted: 10/13/2008 2:42:27 AM | Message Detail
i was pretty much positive this match was going to have a big surprise, but i was afraid changing my prediction would have made it even worse. then again, chief doing worse than like, 44% seemed laughable to me, so i don't think there's anything i could have done really; having kain 15 raiden 27 or kain 23 raiden 19 get the same points, so any change there wouldn't have done anything anyway. that last bit right there being true is my main complaint about the system.
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From: meche313 | Posted: 10/13/2008 7:12:49 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Kain is destroying my pick...

What is going on?
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From: Alanna82 | Posted: 10/13/2008 8:14:22 AM | Message Detail
wow I go away for 2 days, and totally stink up the bomb. Ness what happened? Why dont people like you? Figured Lucas would bomb, but LESS THAN LUKE? ewwww.
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Current Contest points: 67
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 10/13/2008 10:49:20 AM | Message Detail
I have no idea what's happening today. Chief pulling the numbers of his Yuna/Ganon/Luigi match, Kain doing..I just don't know how to call that...

*shrugs*

I don't know why I still bother thinking about my predictions, nothing fits any pattern anymore...
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From: DSiRage | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:17:11 AM | Message Detail
looks like I lost 1 to 2 points over my three changes!

URGH. Could've owned today ;_;
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From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:19:07 AM | Message Detail
Is there any place I can find the average oracle results of all people combined for this years matches? Like to see what B8 in general thought each character would get?
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From: DSiRage | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:23:12 AM | Message Detail
And now is a good time to see the scores of the top 20 >_>
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From: smitelf | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:25:48 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'm going to get destroyed in this match. I had MC with 48.75% <_<
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From: Yesmar | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:37:33 AM | Message Detail
Woah, I had no clue I would do so well yesterday. I guess that's what happens when Big Boss goes and shocks us all like that.
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From: Justin_Crossing | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:38:20 AM | Message Detail
The sad thing is that your score being the highest was only a 46 >.>
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden
From: Kaxon | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:56:41 AM | Message Detail
Is there any place I can find the average oracle results of all people combined for this years matches? Like to see what B8 in general thought each character would get?

Do you mean consensus predictions? There isn't a good place to look them up for the current contest, no. We should fix that.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience
From: Salient | Posted: 10/13/2008 11:58:22 AM | Message Detail
Aren't there potential problems with this midnight deadline? I mean, it's not like both servers are in-line with an atomic clock. Also we've seen the odd match start time now and again.

And what about that guy who would have won the entire contest one year if that other guy's prediction change hadn't been 2 seconds after the 5 minute deadline? One would think we'd keep the stupid 5 minute rule just for the sake of that guy's sanity. >_>
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~~Teh Frue Blob of Pwnage~~
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From: DSiRage | Posted: 10/13/2008 12:03:59 PM | Message Detail
Even though I could've done better if I hadn't changed, I'm still happy with the results :) GOOO PALACE OF WISDOM!

45.52 kawaiifan
44.66 MegatokyoEd
44.54 creativename
44.38 Ghost Cyborg
44.38 DSRage
44.28 Master Moltar

44.16 Camden
44.13 Metal Goomba
44.13 Justin_Crossing
43.96 Luster Soldier
43.91 The n00b Avenger
43.91 King Morgoth
43.66 Kaxon
43.61 PeaceOut64
43.60 Salient
43.56 GrapefruitKing
43.54 ShatteredElysium
43.29 smitelf
43.27 Xuxon
43.19 Ngamer64
42.98 meche313
42.13 yoblazer33

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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
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