Top Team Scores:
1) Drunkadelict Armadillos - 98.89 (Haste2: +49.76 / Dekar TKB: +49.13)
2) We Used To Be Good? - 98.83 (Kaxon: +49.45 / King Morgoth: +49.38)
3) Helmasaur King - 97.72 (Xuxon: +48.76 / GrapefruitKing: +48.96)
4) Predestined Divination - 97.41 (creativename: +48.57 / Ngamer64: +48.84)
5) Happy Happyists - 96.72 (Camden: +49.01 / meche313: +47.71)

Team Drunkadelict Armadillos are in first place again for the second time in three days! Meanwhile Team We Used To Be Good? makes a now-rare top 5 appearance, although we had 6 earlier in this contest. Team Helmasaur King is third, followed by team Predestined Divination, who just keep making themselves harder to catch. Finally, Team Happy Happyists is fifth.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=34

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 3158.46
2) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 3146.50
3) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 3144.58
4) Team Big Black Wangs (Master Moltar / Explicit Content) - 3140.65
5) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 3139.80

The top 4 positions remain unchanged, but Team OH IT'S NESS drops down to seventh after spending three days on the leaderboard. Team Happy Happyists, who've been lurking just below the radar for a while, move back up into fifth, while Team We Used To Be Good? finally regains some ground, moving into 6th and only 0.10 points out of the top 5.

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=34
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

Alright, top 5 team prediction and back on the team leaderboard!

Suh-sweet. My third #1 pick for the contest! Pretty darn good efficiency so far...

That's Oracle-depressing. I've got three in every contest combined, and I had to share one of them with about seven other people. The last time I had the best pick all to myself was back in 04 when Crono finally beat Mario.
---
Topics I've seen on Board 8 complaining about Final Fantasy 7 and its fans: 29
When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless. -Yamamoto Tsunetomo

With kawaii in 3rd, Kax in 4th, and King Morgoth in 6th, this has to be the best day for the k-crew since sc2k4. =)

Technically this was our best ever in terms of match ranking, however, I think the 12 days we were 1-2-3 on the leaderboard in 2k4 count as better overall. =)

(This was also our second best ever in terms of combined score - our best was match 24 of sc2k4, Sephiroth vs Sly Cooper.)
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

That's Oracle-depressing. I've got three in every contest combined, and I had to share one of them with about seven other people. The last time I had the best pick all to myself was back in 04 when Crono finally beat Mario.

Wow, and I thought my record was bad...

3 in spc2k4 (out of 14 matches predicted - beginners' luck)
2 in sc2k4
1 in spc2k5
0 in sc2k5
1 in spc2k6
0 in sc2k6
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

I was just talking about overall top predictions, not top fives. I've got about 12 top five predictions total. However, after looking at both of our pages, you completely dominate me in one stat.

Days on the Leaderboard: 93 (11,15,37,19,11) 4th
Days on the Leaderboard: 5 (0,0,0,2,3) 63rd

I've never got to hold even the bronze medal for a single day...
---
Topics I've seen on Board 8 complaining about Final Fantasy 7 and its fans: 29
When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless. -Yamamoto Tsunetomo

Stat-heads, what say you regarding this definition of LFF?

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/LFF

I think I laid it our pretty well there... but feel free to suggest where it could be made more clear.

---
The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats

Psh, you people and your 1st place predictions. Who needs 'em.

2nd and...3rd and...5th are where it's at. <_<
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st

I think the explanation is alright, but I'd give the example we have using real data - Cloud/Link/Snake/Sephiroth and Cloud/Link/Snake.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

Thank god I didn't do my change for today.

Ohh crap. I made a mistake. Kaxon, Morgoth, I put in this prediction for Frog yesterday:

Frog - 21.53.%

And since I accidentally had an extra . after the 53, it read my prediction for Frog as 53%. Is there any way I can get this changed to the 21.53 that I intended? Pretty Please?

---
If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula

Sorry everyone, results are going to be updated late again today since I won't be home at 9. That includes results on the site, since predictions won't all be entered.

Seginus - yes, that'll be fixed when I get home.
---
Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin

I hate looking at a match 23 hours in and realizing I have yet another crappy prediction...

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:41:41 AM | message detail
Stat-heads, what say you regarding this definition of LFF?

That looks good to me...


Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 2:41:35 PM | message detail
Ohh crap. I made a mistake. Kaxon, Morgoth, I put in this prediction for Frog yesterday:

Frog - 21.53.%

And since I accidentally had an extra . after the 53, it read my prediction for Frog as 53%. Is there any way I can get this changed to the 21.53 that I intended? Pretty Please?

i'll fix that one in a minute...

Kaxon | Posted 10/7/2007 7:26:28 PM | message detail
Sorry everyone, results are going to be updated late again today since I won't be home at 9. That includes results on the site, since predictions won't all be entered.

How the heck are we supposed to discuss our predictions then eh? >_>

Results are going to be fine by midnight on the site (Apparently Kaxon managed to enter everything in the database) and I should be around to write the update...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

Match # 35 Results
Cloud Strife 56.10%
Marcus Fenix 15.59%
Revolver Ocelot 15.06%
Kefka 13.24%

wtf Cloud? Cloud figures he likes fodder and wants to make everyone look like fodder. He totally trumps the consensus and hsi three oponents as he manages to score over 56%. Marcus grabs a ticket to Round 3 by picking up the leftovers better than Ocelot while Kefka is hidden in his corner. Alone. And probably laughing... Consensus : Cloud - 50.86% ; Kefka - 12.88% ; Marcus Fenix - 19.24% ; Revolver Ocelot - 17.02% for an average score of 46.55 points.

Best Five Picks:
1) Team Rocket Elite - Cloud Strife 55.00% - Fenix 15.50% - Kefka 13.50% - Revolver Ocelot 16.00% (+49.40)
1) smitelf - Cloud Strife 56.31% - Fenix 16.40% - Kefka 12.06% - Revolver Ocelot 15.23% (+49.40)
1) Xeybozn - Cloud Strife 54.91% - Fenix 16.11% - Kefka 13.56% - Revolver Ocelot 15.42% (+49.40)
4) Leebo86 - Cloud Strife 55.34% - Fenix 15.67% - Kefka 12.23% - Revolver Ocelot 16.76% (+49.11)
5) red sox 777 - Cloud Strife 54.00% - Fenix 16.00% - Kefka 14.00% - Revolver Ocelot 16.00% (+48.94)

I had to do a double-take. Three-way tie for first yesterday with three great but totally different predictions. TRE takes his 22nd All-Time Top 5 while smitelf figures she likes it and appears for the second day in a row and Xeybozn takes a TOp 5 on his 3rd ever prediction. It was everyone's first win this year. Leebo86 takes his first Top 5 this year while red sox 777 takes his 27th All-Time Top 5 to round out the board.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=35

Current Leaderboard:
1) The n00b Avenger - 1636.14
2) smitelf - 1627.95
2) creativename - 1627.95
4) Haste2 - 1627.29
5) Master Moltar - 1626.15

wtf smitelf? The n00b Avenger retains a very very comfortable lead at the top but there are things moving under him. smitelf figured it's time for the veterans to move away as she jumps in 2nd place to tie creative. Haste2 takes a small drop to 4th while Moltar hangs onto the leaderboard in 5th.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=35

Top Team Scores:
1) mvp's - 96.94 (ps2rulezzz: +48.37 / basmeyer42: +48.57)
2) Indomitable Force - 96.35 (Aprosenf: +48.41 / Draco1214: +47.94)
3) Klonoa Alliance - 95.97 (raytan7585: +48.24 / amyvitality66: +47.73)
4) The Council of Two - 95.90 (Lopen: +47.44 / satai_delenn: +48.46)
5) Happy Happyists - 95.41 (Camden: +47.82 / meche313: +47.59)

Team mvp's is on a roll as they hit their 4th win and 10th Top 5 of the season already. Team Indomitable Force takes 2nd for for their 2nd appearance while Team Klonoa Alliance get up here for the 4th time in 3rd. The Council of Two takes 4th place for the 4th Top 5 while the Happy Happyists take 5th for the second straight day.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=35

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 3251.75
2) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 3241.52
3) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 3239.24
4) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 3235.21
5) Team Big Black Wangs (Master Moltar / Explicit Content) - 3234.79

Is it lonely up there? creative and the N-man spend their 31st day in the lead ans they don't seem tempted to give it up any time soon... Team mvp's claim 2nd place back from Rage of Warcraft while the Happy Happyists keep moving up in 4th, pushing the Big Black Wangs on the edge of the leaderboard....

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=35

Making some progress in the team competition, though still miles away from creative/Ngamer. Miles away from n00b on the normal leaderboard as well. Should lay some odds on whether or not either of those situations change by the end of the contest.
---
Topics I've seen on Board 8 complaining about Final Fantasy 7 and its fans: 29
When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless. -Yamamoto Tsunetomo

Just for a change of pace...

Kaxon's Quickie Quick Questions - Contest day 35
1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?
2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?
3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?
4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?

Decent. Everyone makes mistakes, and someone could a hit a nice string of luck. The contest is only half over, after all.


2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

This one is tougher. They've got a nice padding already. I'd say they've got this, but it's not a total lock.


3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Samus > Cloud > Mega Man...uhh...<_< Yeah, only three so far.


4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

Nah, now that Bowser's out of the poll and Samus has no one to lose votes to, she's got it.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 112/152; Oracle - 22nd

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?
2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

Slim Jim to none. The high scores associated with this format would require that they either start doing incredibly bad, which seems unlikely as even on bad days they seem to have above average picks, or for someone else to win a few games from you guys.

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Cloud > Samus > Mega Man > Fourth Guy

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

No. Mega Man seems like he blends in with the Nintendo vote, so I don't think Yoshi is going to syphon away an incredible amount from Samus yet nothing from Mega Man.
---
Topics I've seen on Board 8 complaining about Final Fantasy 7 and its fans: 29
When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless. -Yamamoto Tsunetomo

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?
2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

Zilch to both.

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Cloud > Samus > Mega Man

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

Goddamn hell no.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21

The contest will become more predictable, and n00b can play it safe. He *should* win. Same with the team guys. Pretty ridiculous leads, given a .50 point swing is pretty decent in this format.



I think Cloud was the only impressive #, but C > S > MM as most others have said if I had to rank them.



I guess MM > Samus could happen.. But I wouldn't put any money on it. I'd be shocked if Yoshi somehow SFFed Samus that bad, but wasn't taking any away from MegaMan at the same time. It will be weird to see these heavy hitters at like 30% though (much like todays match - seeing ryu/auron/bowser so low is just weird.. but obv natural in format)

I think people tend to overestimate the security of the leaders. Just look at creativename in sc2k5 (10 point lead at this point in the contest) or Bananaquest in spc2k4 (17 point lead with only 9 matches to go). Another way to look at it is if they gained the leads they have over 35 days, another 28 is plenty of time to lose them.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

I forgot to mention that the volatility here is definitely lower, but I still wouldn't consider anyone a lock.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

King Morgoth, could you post your x-stat formula here again?

Wow my prediction for that Cloud match was just terrible.

I think people tend to overestimate the security of the leaders. Just look at creativename in sc2k5 (10 point lead at this point in the contest) or Bananaquest in spc2k4 (17 point lead with only 9 matches to go). Another way to look at it is if they gained the leads they have over 35 days, another 28 is plenty of time to lose them.

This is quite true, and usually the case. Less so here than in previous contests, due to lower volatility as you mentioned (mostly due to the lack of a penalty - in close matches that adds a huge luck factor, and the later you go in a normal 2-character contest the closer matches get. I'm not sure if the latter aspect will tend to be the case here but it might).

n00b's lead is very impressive - it almost matches the difference between 2nd and 16th! However I think anyone in the #2-#14 range is very much in contention, and the group of #15+ also have at least a slim chance. The odds of someone catching fire the rest of the way are pretty high. If this was a previous contest, I'd actually say the odds of that 8 point lead being lost are actually quite a bit higher than 50%, though in this format n00b's chances to win might be close to or just above 50%. Every other individual's are probably under 10%.

I think the team contest tends to have less shakeups, though our 'effective' lead for comparison purposes is about 5 points, less than n00b's. Clearly, we are far from locks. But due to the teams tending to have less shakeups, I'd consider it a bigger collapse if we didn't win than if n00b didn't :) n00b could do very well and yet get displaced by someone who just does great, whereas for teams both members of a team will probably need to do great if Ngamer and me can keep doing decent.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

There are tons of matches where I lose a full point off my lead in a single day. The only thing that's saving me is that the people in 2nd and 3rd seem to keep alternating between doing good to doing bad so they end up closing the gap by a couple points only to make a bad prediction and fall down a place or 2. I think the odds of those bad predictions may decrease going into the later rounds since while matches can be unpredictable, there are less unknowns since we've seen everyone perform. Realistically I'd say my odds of winning are less than 20%. I got where I am on luck, and luck can only last so long
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.

Heck, I think today might be one of those days where I lose a point. I'm pretty sure I have the worst prediction for today among the top 5 since I underestimated Auron the most out of everyone. If not close to the worst at least
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?

The n00b Avenger is in great shape but by no means a lock. I'd say 100% given previous history, but lack of volatility here makes him a big favorite. 40%.

2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

Team scores don't seem to move around much. Let's go with 20%.

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Cloud > Samus > Mega Man

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

Hard to deny a chance, but I really really doubt it. 100:1.
---
FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)

Kaxon's Quickie Quick Questions - Contest day 35
And then you wonder why people think we're alts? =P
I like it though....

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?
The way he's been playing? He could actually make it to the end... The thing is, this time around, he's got arguably the most stacked mob of contenders going for his head...it's going to be interesting if I can stop sucking too, the mob needs more people!!!

2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?
They'll probably slip at one point or the other since the slip ups are twice as big in that context. But they've been running a pretty flawless game in the past weeks...

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?
Cloud (wtf was that?) >>>>>> Samus > Mega Man

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?
It's a tough one to call. SFF should go Samus > MM > Yoshi but we've all seen Mario/Samus so I'd say it's probably 50/50 at this point...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 6:07:01 AM | message detail
King Morgoth, could you post your x-stat formula here again?

No I can't because that'd be sharing the huge advantage it gives me.
>_>
<_<
lawl x-stats

Assuming A>B>C>D and things are scaled to A's x-stats being 1.000 (since it simplifies so much >_>)
R(A) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + B¬CD + ¬BCD) / 3 + (B¬C¬D + ¬BC¬D + ¬B¬CD) / 2 + ¬B¬C¬D
R(B) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + B¬CD) / 3 + (B¬C¬D + ¬BC¬D + ¬B¬CD) / 2
R(C) = BCD/4 + (BC¬D + ¬BCD) / 3 + (¬BC¬D) / 2
R(D) = BCD/4 + (B¬CD + ¬BCD) / 3 + (¬B¬CD) / 2


Kaxon | Posted 10/8/2007 12:49:16 AM | message detail
I think people tend to overestimate the security of the leaders. Just look at creativename in sc2k5 (10 point lead at this point in the contest) or Bananaquest in spc2k4 (17 point lead with only 9 matches to go). Another way to look at it is if they gained the leads they have over 35 days, another 28 is plenty of time to lose them.

creative had to face a much higher variation while BQ lost due to me getting the craziest string of luck and insanity we've ever seen =P This is totally different...
---
Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?

1%

2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

0%

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Cloud >>> Samus >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Megaman

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

This is a question? Did he had any chances or something?
---
Onimimi's films rules!

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?
A decent chance... but I have more faith in n00b avenger more than I do most other good predictors with staying consistantly good...


2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?
Pretty slim. Now we're talking about TWO people losing their lead... more consistency.

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?
Mega Man - decent. Samus - fantastic. Cloud - mind-boggling. Non-existant character - WHOAHIOHAOISHIOHIOSADJHFUNBELIEVABLEIODSJGUIDSGUIHDSUIGHIDSL

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?
Eh... not so good, I think (20% chance, I'll say). Bowser couldn't even make up the difference of 8% going from LFF with Mewtwo and Toad to no LFF at all. Samus seems as strong as ever.


---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Seginus - yes, that'll be fixed when I get home.

Thanks, guys!

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest? - I think someone will take it after a while...maybe 50% chance. He DOES have a big lead.


2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest? - Team scores can be more volatile, but PD has been strikingly consistent. I think they'll win. 20%.

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far? - Samus>Cloud>Mega Man. I wasn't all that surprised to see Cloud pulling 56, his competition wasn't THAT great
.
4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round? - Nah. Samus can't be hurt that much by Yoshi.
---
If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula

1) What are the chances of someone overtaking The n00b Avenger by the end of the contest?

The only way I can see that happening is if Avenger starts sucking in his predictions or he misses a match. That's a heavy deficit to overcome.

2) What are the chances of someone passing team Predestined Divination by the end of the contest?

I haven't really paid attention to teams >_>, GO COUNCIL OF TWO!

3) How do you rank the round 2 performances of the four noble niners we've seen so far?

Besides Sonic, pretty damn amazing. Oh, round two? Cloud > Samus > Mega Man

4) Do you think Mega Man has a chance of beating Samus next round?

Not a good one. But then, Yoshi's there too, right? Hmm... With Scorpion getting a lot of votes and Yoshi to leech many of Samus' votes... Hmm, maybe.It's like 27/27/27/19 IMO
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Phoenix > Magus: 2 points in my bracket, but 4 points in my heart. :3
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png

Here's an Oracle topic. What the hell does Big Boss get in his match now that he has a Naked Snake picture X_X
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.

Hah! I was about to post the same thing.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-38.jpg

Makes you wonder if he easily finishes 2nd here. It's possible considering how weak Magus has become.
---
100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego

Seriously. I can see Big Boss getting anywhere from 20% to 32%. This could be the wild card match that completely makes or breaks the leader board for the coming matches
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.

Eh... not so good, I think (20% chance, I'll say). Bowser couldn't even make up the difference of 8% going from LFF with Mewtwo and Toad to no LFF at all. Samus seems as strong as ever.

I think MM's hopes have less to do with LFF and more to do with the hardcore fanbase factor / how much of a favorite Samus is. Samus has held up quite well so far, but she also has faced pretty weak characters, and no one with much overlap aside from extremely weak Midna. In the BR she held up very poorly, but that was obviously against a whole other caliber of characters than MM and Yoshi. So next round is more about good old fashioned SFF (except 3-way, and we already know MM will hold up against Yoshi).

I'll optimistically claim MM has a 1 in 3 chance of winning that.
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

Those questions seem fairly well answered so far, so I'll ask one of my own. Has anyone had more 6-10 placings this year than me (5 or 6 I believe) without getting a top 5 pick? (Listed on the site as Ringworm for anyone that doesn't know). Got to be close to the most surely.

And for the quickie questions: No, No, C>S>MM, Samus will beat MM.

Well it took me a lot longer than I anticipated, but I've put up a generalized percentage estimator using King Morgoth's conditional probability formula.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48

Doesn't really work for more than about 12 characters, I suppose because the computational order of the set combinatorics starts to get ridiculous at that point.

King Morgoth, do you have any ideas on working backwards using your formula? Going from actual percentages to 1-on-1 strength estimations?
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Kax, please remember to save this topic! I think you forgot on the last one (at least, I don't see it in the oc.com archive).

Nice work with the calc creative, and it appears to be running perfectly since it spit out the same numbers I got from KM's excel calculator.

Now for today- gosh! Weren't we pretty well in agreement that, adjusting for Tifa weirdness on Zamus, Wario ~= Peach? And Meta-Knight we're already seen hold up well on Seph, so basically you're taking out CATS and replacing him with Fox... and people are still picking Seph at 54-55? Yeah yeah, I realize Cloud put up 56, but Seph isn't quite Cloud, and Fox is a good ways ahead of of Ocelot/Marcus.

Cloud impressed us, certainly, but this just seems a bit knee-jerk.

---
The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats

creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 6:04:14 PM | message detail
Well it took me a lot longer than I anticipated, but I've put up a generalized percentage estimator using King Morgoth's conditional probability formula.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48

Doesn't really work for more than about 12 characters, I suppose because the computational order of the set combinatorics starts to get ridiculous at that point.

*applauds*. That should read "the awesome King Morgoth" though but I'll forgive you for now =P.

And yes I figure it gets pretty heavy past 11-12 characters...


King Morgoth, do you have any ideas on working backwards using your formula? Going from actual percentages to 1-on-1 strength estimations?

Ideas? Yes. I mean from a theoretical standpoint I figure it's a bijection from [0,100]^3 <-> a certain finite subset of [0,1]^4. And I've been able to do it for 3-way matches without it looking like total crap. The problem I have with 4-ways is that I come across some pretty creepy algebra and it gets to the point where if I plug the wrong thing I'll just cancel everything and come back to where I started. So I haven't pulled it off...yet


Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:58:50 PM | message detail
Now for today- gosh! Weren't we pretty well in agreement that, adjusting for Tifa weirdness on Zamus, Wario ~= Peach? And Meta-Knight we're already seen hold up well on Seph, so basically you're taking out CATS and replacing him with Fox... and people are still picking Seph at 54-55? Yeah yeah, I realize Cloud put up 56, but Seph isn't quite Cloud, and Fox is a good ways ahead of of Ocelot/Marcus.

Cloud impressed us, certainly, but this just seems a bit knee-jerk.

It's all about LFF. This one could go anywhere and it's very hard to figure exactly where votes will go...
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Kaxon is a figurehead. Morgoth has all the real power. - Janus5000
SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)

W00t, first place in the last match!
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.

Jon (NG) and I tied for 9th.. AND a tie for 13th. That is just insane!

Match # 36 Results
Auron 35.83%
Ryu (Street Fighter) 26.16%
Bowser 24.07%
Shadow the Hedgehog 13.94%

Ryu has avenged his defeat! He's now twice beaten Bowser this year after suffering the worst defeat of his career at Bowser's hands two years ago... and this time, Bowser's out of the contest. Auron cruised to an easy first place today and Shadow cruised to an even easier last, leaving Ryu and Bowser the only ones remotely close to each other - but Ryu lead from the 10 minute mark and never looked back. Strangely, a large majority of oracles had Bowser ahead of Ryu despite last round - 84 vs 22. The consensus predictions were Auron - 30.22%; Bowser - 27.95%; Ryu - 25.55%; Shadow - 16.37%. The average score was 46.31.

Best Five Picks:
1) Aprosenf - Auron 34.33% - Bowser 23.95% - Ryu 27.46% - Shadow the Hedgehog 14.26% (+49.19)
2) Kaxon - Auron 32.24% - Bowser 24.83% - Ryu 27.15% - Shadow the Hedgehog 15.78% (+48.20)
3) ScorpionX3 - Auron 35.00% - Bowser 21.00% - Ryu 29.00% - Shadow the Hedgehog 15.00% (+48.05)
4) Lady Ashe - Auron 32.00% - Bowser 27.00% - Ryu 26.00% - Shadow the Hedgehog 15.00% (+48.00)
5) Lagoona - Auron 34.56% - Bowser 25.52% - Ryu 23.26% - Shadow the Hedgehog 16.66% (+47.91)

Aprosenf was today's best predictor by a wide margin, almost a point above the rest of the pack. He was almost dead on with Bowser and Shadow, but gave Ryu some percentage that should have gone to Auron. I got the second place prediction, somehow landing myself in the top 5 for the second time in three days (not to mention getting 3 top 5's in a contest for the first time since spring 2004). ScorpionX3 got his first top 5 of the contest with the third best pick, followed by Lady Ashe, who got his 5th best pick despite missing a number of matches with late predictions - quite an impressive feat. Lagoona took the #5 spot with his second top 5 of the contest.

Another interesting thing about today's match is that there were tons of ties, including a 6-way tie for 30th (Redtooth, Camden, MegatokyoEd, Darunia, Rocktillery, and Goldslime) and a 7-way tie for 79th (TRE, BT, hochiminh, Salient, Menji, Jmast, and DP). Out of those two ties, only 3 people had the same predictions.

Complete Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=36

Current Leaderboard:
1) The n00b Avenger - 1682.91
2) smitelf - 1675.68
3) creativename - 1674.95
4) Haste2 - 1674.04
5) Master Moltar - 1673.48

The only change in today's leaderboard is that creativename drops to third, giving smitelf sole possession of second place. She gained almost a point on The n00b Avenger today as well. The only other change in the top 10 is that octoinky and Ngamer each moved up into a tie for 9th place, both passing kawaiifan. A lot of people who were below 19th moved up a spot today, since Ness26 unfortunately forgot to make a prediction.

Full Standings:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=total&match=36
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R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

Top Team Scores:
1) Indomitable Force - 95.69 (Aprosenf: +49.19 / Draco1214: +46.50)
2) We Used To Be Good? - 95.22 (Kaxon: +48.20 / King Morgoth: +47.02)
3) Los Gonzalez - 95.05 (ScorpionX3: +48.05 / linkhatesganon: +47.00)
4) Rage of Warcraft - 94.62 (War13104: +47.26 / DSRage: +47.36)
5) Happy Happyists - 94.41 (Camden: +47.08 / meche313: +47.33)

Team Indomitable Force has been living up to their name lately - they went from a second place score yesterday to first today. Meanwhile, is Team We Used To Be Good? finally reversing their decline? They're in second for the 2nd time in three days today. Team Los Gonzalez (ScorpionX3 and linkhatesganon) get third, their 2nd time in the top 5 this contest. Team Rage of Warcraft has their 7th top 5 of the contest, as does Team Happy Happyists, who have now had the #5 score three days in a row.

Complete Team Match Ranking:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teammatch&match=36

Team Leaderboard:
1) Team Predestined Divination (creativename / Ngamer64) - 3346.06
2) Team mvp's (ps2rulezzz / basmeyer42) - 3335.02
3) Team Rage of Warcraft (War13104 / DSRage) - 3333.86
4) Team We Used To Be Good? (Kaxon / King Morgoth) - 3329.77
5) Team Happy Happyists (Camden / meche313) - 3329.62

The top three teams remain the same today, but Predestined Divination widens its lead to over 11 points. Meanwhile, Team We Used? To Be Good returns to the leaderboard in style, with a two spot jump into fourth place. Despite their break, they've still spent more total time on the leaderboard than anyone else - 83 days vs 78 for Team mvp's and 66 for Predestined Divination (and 54 for Rage of Warcraft and 46 for Happy Happyists - the entire leaderboard is again made up of returning teams with great past records).

Complete Team Standing:
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=teamtotal&match=36
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R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

OH GOD

How did Ness not make a prediction for yesterday? Now how am I supposed to finish one spot behind him?
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Sushi, Kamikaze, Fujiyama, Nippon-Ichi...
Flamenco Strikes Back!! Return of Don!

I hereby petition that I should be ahead of Ketch for 13th place via the Alphabetical Tie-Break Act of 2007.

Also, happy times! My Cowboys</Cowlishaw> just won one of the most entertaining games I've ever watched, and it took long enough that I didn't have time to make the new prediction I wanted to make where Sephiroth wasn't over 50. Double win!
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Topics I've seen on Board 8 complaining about Final Fantasy games, characters and its fans: 34
When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless. -Yamamoto Tsunetomo

I'm still curious about what the efficiency rating is. Mind telling me? <_<

Not to mention I'm still beating myself over my stupidity from earlier. D:
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Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg

Yes, efficiency rating is your actual number of top 5s divided by your expected number of top 5s. For example, if you predict a match with 100 people, your expected number of top 5's for that match is 0.05. If you landed in the top 5, your efficiency rating would be 20 (for that match)

However, I believe the calculation is screwed up for this contest.
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R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007

From The n00b Avenger
Here's an Oracle topic. What the hell does Big Boss get in his match now that he has a Naked Snake picture X_X

Yeah, this. I'm trying to figure out how to adjust my prediction for Naked Snake (if at all) and drawing a blank. I think the damage the picture can do in this otherwise highly predictable, SFF-free match may be overestimated; after all, the name in the poll is still Big Boss.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21

After what Tifa did last year, I'm not underestimating what the picture can do.

Woot last post!
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)